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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MILAN 000173 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/12/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PINR IT
SUBJECT: ITALY'S LEGA NORD EYES BIG REGIONAL PRIZES 
 
REF: A. ROME 877 
     ¶B. MILAN 95 
 
Classified By: CG Carol Perez for Reasons 1.4 (b, d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: With the Northern League's (LN) successful 
showing in recent local elections, attention is now turning 
to bigger prizes: regional governorships coming vacant in 
March 2010.  With Veneto apparently in the bag, party leaders 
are now looking for at least one other scalp -- either 
Lombardy or Piedmont.  Though neither seem easy LN victories, 
they could be up for contention.  As the League's national 
profile increases, it's important to keep in mind that the 
party's local and populist roots are more central to its 
growing popularity than its increasingly xenophobic 
ideological bent.  For now, the party will be satisfied with 
playing a locally powerful/national spoiler role. However, 
with leader and icon Umberto Bossi ailing, the party's future 
direction will depend more on the personalities of the next 
generation of "Leghisti" -- a topic we will look at septel. 
End summary. 
 
LANDSLIDE FOR CENTER-RIGHT 
 
¶2. (SBU) In local elections that took place in June, the 
center-right coalition (comprised of the People of Liberty 
(PdL) party and the Northern League (LN) party) scored 
impressive victories in the provinces and cities of Northern 
Italy.  Within this coalition, the performance of LN is 
especially significant since it has traditionally been by far 
the weaker partner.  Though in June this trend remained true 
in most of the country, in Veneto LN had a breakthrough, 
coming in only 0.9% behind PdL.  The League also secured 
eight provincial presidencies in the north.  Overall, the 
center-right won a decisive majority: of the 23 provincial 
elections, the center-right won 19.  This is a substantial 
shift from the previous elections in 2004 demonstrating that 
the political climate in Northern Italy is evolving, and the 
LN is expanding its appeal well beyond the "fringe." 
 
¶3. (C) Though the League has become a more important player 
in the center-right coalition, the party's real objective 
remains solidifying its local power base.  The next big 
opportunity to do so will be the March 2010 regional 
elections.  Both Umberto Bossi (the leader of LN) and Mario 
Borghezio (a Turin-based LN Parliamentarian and an important 
party leader) have said publicly that based on the June 
election results, LN expects to take three regional 
governorships -- Veneto, Lombardy, and Piedmont. With 
elections still eight months away, these declarations are a 
LN bargaining strategy to exact the best possible 
pre-election deal out of its PdL partners.  However, they 
also reflect a growing sentiment within the League that it 
can contend with the PdL in dominating center-right politics 
in northern Italy. 
 
¶4. (C) In light of LN's strong performance across the north 
in June, Italian Minister for Legislative Simplification 
Roberto Calderoli, a top Leghisti politician and strategist, 
said that his party would no longer accept PdL's ceding of 
the governorship of Veneto alone.  The League feels it has 
Veneto locked up without any help from the PdL, a viewpoint 
that could increase friction within the LN-PdL ruling 
coalition. Nonetheless, the LN and Bossi have set their 
sights on the coveted governorship of the Lombardy region. 
The ailing Bossi began as part of the "Lega Lombarda" and so 
the governor's seat in Milan would be a symbolic win for him 
as he nears the end of his life.  Though Bossi's personal 
attachment to Lombardy may miff the LN's Veneto voter base, 
the significance of grabbing the governorship of Lombardy 
would trump internal party squabbles. 
 
LIKELY REGIONS TO BARGAIN FOR 
 
¶5. (C) As mentioned, in the Veneto region LN has considerable 
strength as a stand-alone party.  For example, in the small 
Veneto community of Oppeano, LN took 82% of the vote during 
the June polling.  At this point, LN's negotiations with PdL 
in the run-up to March's gubernatorial elections would likely 
only be over the choice of LN candidate.  Giancarlo Galan 
(the current regional governor and member of PdL) is blamed 
by his party for "losing" Veneto to LN in June and is 
considered a lame duck.  Right now there are two likely LN 
candidates, and thus successors to Galan.  The first is Luca 
Zaia the popular Minister of Agriculture (though contacts say 
he currently has no interest in running), and the other 
Flavio Tosi (the current mayor of Verona). Though Tosi (whose 
conviction for inciting racial hatred was upheld on appeal in 
July) is more divisive and a tougher sell for PdL and 
moderate members of LN, he has proven to be an efficient 
 
MILAN 00000173  002 OF 002 
 
 
administrator.  He is clearly intent to be governor and is 
trying to burnish his image by fostering relations with the 
United States (making himself regularly available to meet 
with U.S. diplomats and publicizing our trips to the Verona 
area in the local media) and by bolstering his credentials as 
a moderate, respected, and influential local figure.  Though 
outwardly and verbally tough on immigration, he also has 
stated publicly that immigrants who work are a necessary part 
of the economy.  The outcome of the governor's race in Veneto 
is particularly important to U.S. interests as the region 
hosts the Vicenza army base. 
 
¶6. (C) Lombardy is a sentimental target for LN but a 
strategic center for PdL.  It is the nation's economic hub 
and the political and business base of PM Berlusconi.  The 
incumbent regional governor, Roberto Formigoni, is PdL and 
has an approval rating of over 60%.  However, an opening for 
a LN candidate is possible as Formigoni has aspirations to 
ascend to national political prominence and contacts tell us 
that his connections to "Communion and Liberation" (a 
celibate lay catholic organization) make the PdL brass 
nervous. There are strong LN candidates in Lombardy, but none 
as entrenched in local politics as Formigoni.  Thus, absent 
an offer of a better job it is likely he will run again and 
win. 
 
¶7. (C) Piedmont is a region usually associated with the 
Democratic Party (PD), so while both PdL and LN may pick up 
significant support the center-right is unlikely to take a 
majority in the region.  From the center-right, PdL 
candidates would be stronger than those from LN.  However, 
since there are only limited prospects for any meaningful 
center-right success, the PdL may offer the LN lead slots -- 
"consolation candidacies" -- in the elections.  The offer of 
these slots could be seen as a "gift" from PdL to LN that 
would eventually require some reciprocation.  While there are 
some possible LN candidates in Piedmont, the PD-dominated 
electorate is unlikely to be receptive. 
 
COMMENT: WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN HE'S GONE? 
 
¶8. (C) As the Northern League becomes increasingly 
"mainstream" in the north, it's important to take stock of 
their goals and vision.  The party's constituency and 
ambitions have not strayed significantly from the northern 
roots and identity that gave rise to the party.  Certainly 
anti-immigration rhetoric, which is increasingly permeating 
much of Italy's center-right political groupings, finds its 
shrillest manifestation in the statements of LN leaders, 
including Bossi's.  However, the LN remains first and 
foremost a populist party, rooted in the north and the 
region's thousands of small businesses, and committed to 
maximizing the control of local and regional politics by 
local people.  While Bossi remains at the helm, we don't 
believe the LN will make a grab at becoming a broad national 
party, but will prefer to maintain its spoiler role in the 
north.  A major "x-factor," however, is the health of the 
boss.  As his health deteriorates, Bossi has been focusing on 
the short and sentimental game which, for him, means securing 
a regional presidency in Lombardy.  But with the charismatic 
leader and old war horse failing, the question of who will 
replace Bossi is a major dilemma facing the party.  We will 
look at some of the likely heirs septel. 
PEREZ