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Viewing cable 09MANILA1653, SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF ADMIRAL TIMOTHY KEATING

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09MANILA1653 2009-08-06 04:02 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Manila
VZCZCXRO5909
OO RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHML #1653/01 2180402
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 060402Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY MANILA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4816
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RHHMUNA/CDRUSPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MANILA 001653 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MTS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/05/2019 
TAGS: MARR MPOS PINS PREL RP
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF ADMIRAL TIMOTHY KEATING 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (C)  SUMMARY:  Admiral Keating, we look forward to 
welcoming you back to Manila for the 2009 Mutual Defense 
Board/Security Engagement Board (MDB/SEB).  The robust 
U.S.-Philippines bilateral relationship has recently 
withstood court challenges to the Visiting Forces Agreement, 
but remains very close, as evidenced by President Gloria 
Macapagal Arroyo's July 30 visit to the Oval Office.  Renewed 
efforts are underway to restart formal peace talks between 
the Philippine government and Muslim insurgents; a July 23 
ceasefire between the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) 
and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) appears to be 
holding, as plans for formal talks move ahead.  Using 
coordinated hard and soft power approaches, the AFP continues 
to score significant successes against terrorists in the 
southern Philippines and against the communist New People's 
Army; Lt. Gen. Victor Ibrado, appointed AFP Chief of Staff in 
May, is expected to maintain the momentum against terrorist 
and insurgent groups.  Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto 
Teodoro, a likely candidate for president next year, has been 
a strong leader and possesses a clear vision for the future 
of the Philippine military.  Increased security has allowed 
USAID and other USG agencies to implement development 
projects in areas prone to terrorist recruitment.  The 
Mission continues close cooperation with the Philippine 
government in working to protect human rights in 
conflict-affected areas, and in putting an end to 
extrajudicial killings.  You will have an opportunity to 
discuss key strategic issues -- such as our shared 
counterterrorism fight -- and future military-to-military 
plans with key Philippine interlocutors and U.S. military 
personnel.  END SUMMARY. 
 
PHILIPPINE POLITICS 
------------------- 
 
2. (C)  With less than a year left in office, President 
Gloria Macapagal Arroyo continues to balance competing 
political interests amidst economic challenges.  President 
Arroyo has weathered numerous unsuccessful impeachment 
efforts and low-level military coup attempts.  Her 
administration has been plagued by allegations of serious 
corruption, as well as charges her supporters are attempting 
to juggle the Philippine Constitution to extend legal 
protection for Arroyo and her family after her term ends next 
year.  With national elections scheduled for May 2010, nearly 
20 cabinet members have announced their intention to seek 
office.  Some presumed candidates have attempted to 
politicize aspects of our security relationship, such as the 
Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), but none of the likely 
presidential contenders would represent a radical departure 
from the status quo.  President Arroyo met with President 
Obama in the Oval Office July 30, and following additional 
meetings with key U.S. cabinet members, returned to Manila 
earlier than scheduled due to the August 1 death of former 
President Corazon Aquino, a much-beloved icon of democracy. 
 
PROMOTING HUMAN RIGHTS 
---------------------- 
 
3. (C)  President Arroyo continues to express her commitment 
to making greater progress on the long-standing problem of 
extrajudicial killings, and has taken concrete steps in this 
direction.  Partly due to increased attention by the 
Philippine government, the number of extrajudicial killings 
decreased dramatically through 2007 and 2008.  While many 
execution-style slayings among politicians and others are 
likely a result of local disputes and long-standing feuds 
among rival clans, the government acknowledges the need to do 
more to ensure that all such crimes -- whether or not linked 
to security forces -- are fully investigated, and that those 
responsible are brought to justice.  The Embassy continues to 
press the issue at the highest levels of the Philippine 
government, and has implemented a comprehensive plan of 
public outreach activities, training, and 
institution-building to make further progress in addressing 
the problem. 
 
PHILIPPINES ECONOMIC GROWTH SLOWS 
--------------------------------- 
 
4. (U)  The Philippine economy has averaged better than five 
percent growth for the past eight years, but under the impact 
of the global financial crisis, GDP growth may be outpaced by 
 
MANILA 00001653  002 OF 004 
 
 
the country's annual 2.04 percent population growth.  Should 
the global economic downturn be prolonged, the impact on 
poverty in the Philippines, where more than 40 percent of the 
population lives on less than two dollars per day, could have 
a tangible impact on domestic politics.  Poverty is 
especially severe in the Muslim areas of the southern 
Philippines.  On the positive side, the Philippine banking 
system is relatively sound and not heavily exposed to risks 
from current global financial turmoil.  The U.S. remains the 
Philippines' largest trading partner, with over $17 billion 
in two-way trade during 2008, and is one of the largest 
investors, with $6.7 billion in equity. 
 
PHILIPPINE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE TEODORO 
--------------------------------------- 
 
5. (C)  In the government's fight against the communist and 
Muslim insurgencies, Teodoro is a hawk.  Teodoro sees ongoing 
violence in central Mindanao as primarily thuggery.  He 
believes there can be no lasting peace in the southern 
Philippines without disarmament, and has stressed that point 
with U.S. officials.  Teodoro thinks more Philippine troops 
in Mindanao are necessary in the near term to establish a 
solid security environment.  He challenges the 2008 U.S. 
Country Report on Terrorism's "safe haven" designation of 
areas in the southern Philippines, which he believes is 
incorrect.  Teodoro said the government will issue 
evaluations of the government's efforts against the New 
Peoples' Army, the ASG, and rogue MILF groups by the end of 
this year. 
 
6. (C)  Secretary Teodoro has stressed that the 1953 
U.S.-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty is vital in reinforcing 
the history shared between our two countries and for 
providing a mechanism for future engagement.  Teodoro 
believes that the next phase of the U.S.-Philippine military 
relationship should go beyond combat training and focus on 
broader strategic objectives.  He was very pleased with joint 
Philippine-U.S. cooperation in co-sponsoring the first-ever 
field exercise for the ASEAN Regional Forum, a demonstration 
of disaster relief response held in the Philippines last 
month that involved 25 countries.  He has championed the 
successes of Philippine Defense Reform with sustained U.S. 
assistance.  With the program set to conclude in 2010, 
Teodoro wants to complete two additional components in the 
next year:  a study of Philippine counterinsurgency doctrine 
based on current practices; and a review of information and 
psychological operations to determine the most effective way 
to build support for government efforts. 
 
STRONG BILATERAL DEFENSE RELATIONSHIP CONTINUES 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
7. (C)  Senior Philippine defense officials believe now is 
the time to showcase the depth of the U.S.- Philippine 
relationship in a variety of areas, including 
counterterrorism operations, disaster relief, and 
multilateral engagement.  These officials have emphasized 
that continued U.S. military assistance is essential and that 
expanded programs could provide greater improvements in areas 
ranging from regional security to human rights.  Despite 
court challenges to the 1998 Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) 
and opposition from leftists to U.S. military presence, the 
Philippine Supreme Court ruled in February that the VFA is 
constitutional.  During their July 30 Oval Office meeting 
with President Obama and in a later separate meeting with 
Secretary Clinton, Arroyo and cabinet members voiced strong 
support for the VFA and our military partnership.  Agreement 
was also reached on a memorandum to increase cooperation 
against high-seas piracy -- a subject of special interest to 
the Philippines, given the nation's status as a major origin 
of the world's commercial seamen. 
 
8. (C)  We have a robust military presence in the Philippines 
-- a joint U.S. Military Assistance Group (JUSMAG), Defense 
Attache Office, and approximately 550 Joint Special 
Operations Task Force-Philippines (JSOTF-P) personnel.  Such 
depth allows us to have a broad and far-reaching impact on 
the Philippine military.  U.S. military leadership is 
integrated into the Country Team and provides input that 
shapes decisions and policy.  Apart from JUSMAG's traditional 
role of training and military sales, we have focused on 
assisting the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) with 
revising their doctrine to promote ethics and human rights. 
The Philippines is an active provider of peacekeeping troops 
 
MANILA 00001653  003 OF 004 
 
 
around the world, contributing to eight United Nations 
operations.  Last year they became members of the Global 
Peace Operations Initiative.  This year, three Philippine 
nominees were accepted to U.S. service academies, one at each 
institution.  Members of JSOTF-P work side-by-side with 
Philippine troops in Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago, 
advising and assisting them in counterterrorism operations. 
At the same time, our military closely cooperates with U.S. 
law enforcement and intelligence agencies to achieve 
important successes in counterterrorism efforts. 
 
9. (C)  Several large-scale bilateral exercises are conducted 
each year between U.S. and Philippine troops, along with 
dozens of other training activities and exchanges. 
Humanitarian projects associated with the exercises have been 
welcomed by the Philippine government and population.  More 
than 28,000 people received medical and dental care as part 
of the civil-military component of the Balikatan exercise 
that concluded at the end of April.  Thousands more receive 
assistance each year through projects that JSOTF-P conducts 
in the southern Philippines with their AFP counterparts and 
through the more than 130 visits by U.S. ships. 
 
SUCCESSFUL COUNTERTERRORISM EFFORTS 
----------------------------------- 
 
10. (C)  The United States and the Philippines have scored 
important successes on the security cooperation and 
counterterrorism fronts.  This alliance has resulted in the 
death or capture of a dozen key terrorist leaders and over 
250 other terrorism suspects in the last three years. 
Secretary Teodoro recently emphasized that the Philippine 
government's success against key high-value individuals of 
the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) and Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) 
terrorist organizations was achieved despite persistent 
shortfalls in logistical assets.  He greatly values the 
contributions of U.S. military personnel in improving combat 
capability of Philippine forces.  The brazen January 
kidnapping on Jolo island by the ASG of three members of the 
International Committee of the Red Cross highlights the 
continuing challenges that face the Philippine military and 
police in securing volatile areas. 
 
PEACE PROCESS 
------------- 
 
11. (C)  In recent weeks, the Philippine government and 
members of the separatist Moro Islamic Liberation Front 
(MILF) have established a new ceasefire and taken steps 
toward restarting formal peace talks, demonstrating that both 
sides share a mutually-reinforcing commitment to peace.  On 
July 23, the Philippine government announced a suspension of 
military operations, a move reciprocated by the MILF on July 
25, ending the year of fighting that followed the Philippine 
Supreme Court,s August 2008 decision to block the 
government,s precursor peace agreement with the MILF.  On 
July 29, following informal talks in Kuala Lumpur, the 
Philippine government and MILF peace panels released a joint 
statement with the support of the Malaysian peace 
facilitators, noting their mutual intentions to maintain only 
defensive military postures, to work toward a new framework 
for engagement, and to aid the return of hundreds of 
thousands of internally displaced persons (IDPs) affected by 
the conflict.  The U.S. Mission is initiating new programs 
and reinforcing existing ones to support the return of IDPs 
to their homes and their livelihoods, in cooperation with 
local Philippine authorities and military.  U.S. support 
through development assistance will be an important component 
of a successful peace process, for which many are now 
cautiously optimistic. 
 
USAID'S ROLE 
------------ 
 
12. (C)  Since the mid-1990s, USAID has implemented a sizable 
and highly effective program throughout the island of 
Mindanao and the neighboring Sulu Archipelago provinces of 
Basilan, Jolo, and Tawi-Tawi.  Approximately two-thirds of 
USAID resources for the Philippines have been committed to 
these areas, complemented by 1207 funds, JSOTF-P activities 
(since 2002), and humanitarian missions such as the USNS 
Mercy.  USAID-sponsored activities in these areas include 
infrastructure development, school computerization, health 
and education improvement, environmental management, former 
combatant reintegration, and governance.  USAID financed the 
 
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construction of more than 800 community-level and over 40 
regional-impact infrastructure projects throughout the 
conflict-affected communities of the southern Philippines. 
The primary objective has been to encourage economic growth 
and demonstrate sustained commitment by the Philippine and 
U.S. governments to establishing security. 
KENNEY