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PP RUEHLMC
DE RUEHMU #0859/01 2432129
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 312129Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4509
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
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RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 000859 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN AND DRL 
STATE PASS TO USAID 
TREASURY FOR SENNICH 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NU
SUBJECT: NICARAGUA'S REGIONAL ELECTIONS - THE MORE THINGS 
DON'T CHANGE 
 
REF: A. MANAGUA 554 
     ¶B. 08 MANAGUA 1392 
     ¶C. 08 MANAGUA 1351 
     ¶D. 08 MANAGUA 1101 
     ¶E. 08 MANAGUA 982 
     ¶F. 08 MANAGUA 939 
     ¶G. 08 MANAGUA 761 
     ¶H. 08 MANAGUA 209 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Robert J. Callahan, reasons 1.4(b&d) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: On July 30, Nicaragua's Supreme Electoral 
Council (CSE) established the election calendar for the 
Atlantic coast's regional elections, which will take place 
March 7, 2010.  The corrupt CSE magistrates who manipulated 
the system and were complicit in the massive fraud in the 
November 2008 municipal elections remain the main obstacle to 
ensuring free, fair, and transparent regional elections.  The 
CSE has already fired warning shots regarding party 
participation, voter registration, and electoral observation. 
 Nicaraguan civil society and opposition groups have 
expressed concern that Nicaragua appears headed for another 
fraudulent election, with likely negative consequences for 
national elections in 2011. End Summary. 
 
----------------------------- 
CSE Issues Electoral Calendar 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) On July 30, the CSE established the election 
calendar for the Atlantic coast's regional elections, 
scheduled for March 7, 2010.  These contests will determine 
who will fill the 48 seats of the regional councils for the 
North Atlantic Autonomous Region (RAAN) and the South 
Atlantic Autonomous Region (RAAS).  Among the authorities and 
powers vested in these councils is the ability to authorize 
the extraction of natural resources through the granting of 
concessions.  The regional councils also prioritize 
development projects within their respective regions, 
although they rely on the central government for their 
budgets. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The CSE calendar establishes a series of dates 
leading up to the regional elections.  Some of the more 
important dates are: 
 
- Through September 12, 2009: applications accepted for 
political party alliances; 
- September 18, 2009: CSE approval of political party 
alliances; 
- September 7 - 30, 2009: presentation of candidates; 
- November 6, 2009: official publication of candidates in 
national register ("La Gaceta"); 
- Through December 6, 2009: verification of voter 
registration list; 
- December 7, 2009: last day to apply for a voter 
registration card/identity card; 
- By January 21, 2010: establishment of procedures and 
participation of observers; 
- January 21, 2010: opening of official campaign; 
- February 5, 2010: publication of final voter registration 
list; 
- March 3, 2010: closure of official campaign; 
- March 7, 2010: election day; 
- March 22, 2010: publication of provisional results; 
- April 1, 2010: proclamation of official results; and 
- May 4, 2010: inauguration of elected officials. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
Calendar Isn't the Problem - It's the Corrupt Officials 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶4.  (C) CSE Chief of Staff Rodrigo Barreto told us that the 
Atlantic coast elections would run basically in the same way 
as last November's elections, but intimated the fraud which 
characterized them as well as the January 2009 regional 
elections might not be as flagrant for the sake of 
appearances.  With the exception of two magistrates whose 
 
MANAGUA 00000859  002 OF 002 
 
 
terms expire in February 2010, the CSE leadership will 
otherwise remain the same and this council will manage the 
elections as it had in 2008.  The magistrates that will 
continue in office include CSE President Roberto Rivas, the 
person ultimately responsible for the administration of last 
November's elections.  According to Barreto, in last year's 
elections Rivas acted as "the bridge" between Ortega and 
Constitutional Liberal Party (PLC) caudillo Arnoldo Aleman 
(implicitly in facilitating the massive fraud). 
 
¶5.  (C) The CSE's actions in the past weeks support Barreto's 
statements that the regional elections will not be very 
different from last November's municipal contests.  Employing 
the same tactics used in 2008 to limit the participation of 
opposition parties (ref G and H), the CSE has notified the 
Independent Liberal Party (PLI) of several "inconsistencies" 
in its internal organization.  While Barreto told us it was 
unlikely the PLI would lose its legal registration, he did 
state the possibility existed that the party would "destroy 
itself."  Likewise, as the CSE attempted to suppress voter 
turnout in 2008 (ref C, D, E, F), it now has closed local 
offices in the RAAS and requires citizens to travel to the 
regional capital of Bluefields to obtain voter identification 
cards.  The RAAS's poor infrastructure (river travel is 
required to reach the capital from some parts of the region) 
combined with the high cost of travel for the local citizenry 
will make obtaining a voter card extremely difficult (if not 
impossible) for some in the local population.  Finally, as in 
2008 (ref C and D), FSLN officials and the CSE have stated 
that the country's two most respected elections observation 
groups (Ethics and Transparency, EyT, and the Institute for 
Development and Democracy, IPADE) will not be accredited to 
observe the regional elections. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6.  (C) The Ortega government appears unfazed by a growing 
chorus among Nicaraguan society to address the 2008 election 
fraud and provide some sort of meaningful election reform 
(ref A).  Instead, it is pressing ahead with the Atlantic 
regional elections at an accelerated pace and without any 
changes that would improve the transparency or fairness of 
the electoral process.  Some civil society groups, including 
those involved in the electoral reform movement, have 
privately questioned whether it is worth it to compete in 
these elections, given the likelihood of fraud and 
manipulation.  A repeat of fraud in the regional elections 
would send the worst possible signal ahead of the 2011 
national elections and would further erode public confidence 
in Nicaragua's electoral process. 
CALLAHAN