VZCZCXRO3495
OO RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHLZ
DE RUEHFT #2258/01 2401302
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 281302Z AUG 09
FM AMCONSUL FRANKFURT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1646
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 002258 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON PGOV GM
SUBJECT:  SAARLAND STATE ELECTION: ALL PARTIES NERVOUS ABOUT 
COALITION CHANCES, INFLUENCE ON NATIONAL CAMPAIGN 
 
¶1.  Summary: Saarland will hold its state election on August 30, and 
recent polls suggest the race is wide open with a number of 
coalitions possible.  The uncertainty is making all the parties 
nervous, particularly with federal elections just four weeks away 
and the likelihood that the results, whatever they may be, will 
shape the campaigns of all the state parties for the September 27 
federal vote.  Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Minister-President 
Peter Mueller is seeking a coalition with the Free Democratic Party 
(FDP).  Social Democratic Party (SPD) challenger Heiko Maas is 
officially keeping all options open, but Social Democrats concede 
privately that if they manage to lead a new government, they will 
most likely do it via an SPD-Left Party-Greens coalition.  With 
polls showing that neither of these options currently has a 
majority, the election will likely hinge on the ability of the 
parties to get out the vote and, as one Social Democratic official 
told us, "whether the voters want to get rid of Mueller more than 
they are worried about the possibility of a red-red coalition."  End 
summary. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
No Clear Winner - Everything is Possible 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  Polls this year along with European Parliament and local 
election results indicate that the CDU has all but no chance of a 
solo victory.  In 2004, Mueller won an absolute parliamentary 
majority with 47.5 percent of the vote (with the SPD at 30.8, the 
Greens at 5.6 and the FDP at 5.2).  Two separate polls published on 
August 21 suggest that voters are split almost evenly between left 
and right, so that even a slight shift could change the balance. 
The CDU is at 38 percent according to an infratest dimap poll (36 
percent in a Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (FW) poll), the SPD at 26 (in 
both polls), the Left is at 15 in infratest and 16 percent in FW. 
Both polls put the FDP at 9 percent and the Greens at 6 percent. 
 
¶3.  Initially, all sides thought the campaign would center on a duel 
between Mueller and Oskar Lafontaine, the current Left Party 
national leader and former SPD Minister-President (1985-98)in 
Saarland.  The CDU would have liked such a race, but Lafontaine's 
inability to win high-level SPD or trade union defections to the 
Left Party and its third-place showing in the European Parliament 
vote in June make the prospects of another Lafontaine 
minister-presidency look highly unlikely.  The CDU's initial focus 
on Lafontaine, however, allowed Maas to go relatively unchallenged 
as he has sought to sell himself to Saarlanders. 
 
¶4.  Maas has taken advantage of dissatisfaction with the Mueller 
government, particularly its consolidation of primary schools in 
small-town areas and introduction of university fees, while also 
running a very slick candidate-centered campaign in which he has 
presented himself as the "new man."  He has plastered the state with 
billboards that, as one Social Democratic contact noted, look more 
like a Hugo Boss ad than an SPD poster, but appear to be appealing 
to prospective voters, as even Christian Democratic officials 
concede.  After a slow start, however, the CDU has swung into full 
gear and held a rousing campaign rally on Wednesday with Chancellor 
Angela Merkel, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, and 
Hamburg Mayor Ole von Beust (as well as three bands and 
fire-breathing acrobats) to rally the troops with a focus on 
preventing a left-left coalition. 
 
----------------------- 
Turnout will be Crucial 
----------------------- 
 
¶5.  All sides say that every vote will count in determining what 
coalition comes out of Sunday's results.  Turnout should be 
important; SPD voters unhappy with the Schroeder government sat at 
home in 2004 but may be ready to come back to vote for Maas, while 
the CDU is also making an all out effort to get out its vote. 
Turnout is also likely to affect the showing for the Greens and FDP, 
both of which are relatively weak in Saarland because of the small 
size of the middle-class professionals and educated elite that make 
up their base.  The Greens have a small chance of slipping under the 
five-percent hurdle if turnout is particularly strong, and CDU 
officials say off the record that it would increase the chances of a 
CDU-FDP parliamentary majority. 
 
------------- 
Who's On Top? 
------------- 
 
¶6.  Several coalitions are possible, although most of the options 
would entail long and difficult negotiations.  Both the CDU and FDP 
say they want a joint government, and if they can eke out even a 
one-vote majority, they will quickly seek to complete negotiations 
before September 27.  Maas and the SPD are officially keeping all 
options open, but SPD officials tell us off the record that they are 
ready to try to form a red-red-green coalition.  SPD chancellor 
candidate and Foreign Minister Steinmeier has also said publicly 
 
FRANKFURT 00002258  002 OF 002 
 
 
that he does not see a problem with red-red.  According to the 
press, however, the SPD wants to have more than a one-seat majority 
to avoid a potential repeat of the Hessen debacle when defections 
up-ended a planned leftist coalition.  Coalition negotiations will 
likely be difficult and continue past the Bundestag vote due to 
political considerations and policy differences, particularly on 
coal mining. 
 
¶7.  If neither of these coalitions is possible, consideration may 
turn to a CDU-FDP-Green "Jamaica" coalition or an SPD-FDP-Greens 
"traffic light" coalition.   The presence of von Beust, who heads a 
CDU-Greens government, at the CDU rally may be a sign of the CDU's 
readiness to talk to the Greens, and CDU officials have argued 
privately that their environmental policies are not far apart.  The 
Greens officially support a traffic light coalition, but current 
polls suggest that it is unlikely to gain a parliamentary majority. 
The final option is a grand coalition, but both CDU and SPD 
officials see this as truly the last resort. 
 
 
¶8.  Comment:  The Saarland race is wide open and indicative of the 
changes in German party politics that have forced German politicians 
to live with uncertainty.  A five-party system can make coalition 
building very difficult, and while all sides argue that the Saarland 
race is about state politics rather than the upcoming national 
elections, the results will nevertheless affect not only how the 
parties campaign for September 27 but have precedential value for 
how they think about building majority coalitions on the national 
level.  End comment. 
 
¶9.  This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
 
ALFORD