VZCZCXRO6381
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSL RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHDF #0032/01 2311604
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 191604Z AUG 09
FM AMCONSUL DUSSELDORF
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0227
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHDF/AMCONSUL DUSSELDORF 0243

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSSELDORF 000032 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KISL CASC ASEC GM
SUBJECT: RIGHT-WING PARTIES IN NRW ELECTIONS FULL OF SOUND AND FURY 
BUT LITTLE MORE 
 
REF: A. A) 07 DUSSELDORF 22 
     ¶B. B) 08 DUSSELDORF 36 
     ¶C. C) BERLIN 967 
 
DUSSELDORF 00000032  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary:  While right-wing extremist parties are likely 
to make gains in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) state-wide 
municipal elections at the end of August, their electoral 
success will actually be meager in the grand scheme of things. 
Despite historic difficulty in the region, extreme right parties 
in NRW, including The National Democratic Party of Germany (NPD) 
and Pro Koeln, a Cologne-based anti-immigration group, gained a 
foothold in the 2004 municipal elections by winning seats in a 
handful of city councils. In the past five years, Pro Koeln has 
expanded to a state-wide party named Pro NRW and hopes to gain 
seats in other city councils and county legislatures.  Even with 
some gains at the local level, however, none of the right-wing 
extremist parties are expected to cross the 5-percent electoral 
threshold to gain representation in the state parliament 
following next year's NRW Landtag elections.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
Right-Wing Extremism in NRW Traditionally Weak 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------------ 
 
 
 
¶2.  (U) Right-wing parties have traditionally been unable to 
establish a power-base in NRW, where the SPD has historically 
dominated the cities and urban counties in the heavily 
industrialized Ruhr area, and the CDU has had a strong position 
in the rural counties and in cities outside the Ruhr. In 
addition to being the most populous state in Germany (22 percent 
of Germany's population lives here), NRW has the largest Muslim 
and Turkish populations in Germany, making the state a potential 
hotbed for xenophobic violence and right-wing politics. In 
absolute terms, NRW had the highest number of right-wing 
extremist violent crimes (165) in 2008 of all 16 German states. 
In actuality, however, with 0.92 of such incidents per 100,000 
inhabitants, NRW ranks much lower (11th place), far behind 
states like Saxony-Anhalt (4.15), Saxony (2.99), Brandenburg 
(2.80), Thuringia (2.80) and others. 
 
 
 
¶3.  (U) Even though a number of smaller right-wing populist 
parties compete in the upcoming local elections in NRW, Pro 
NRW/Pro Koeln and the NPD are the only right-wing parties likely 
to win seats in city and county councils.  Both parties are 
nationalist and include anti-Islam positions in their party 
platforms, but their support comes from different voter groups. 
Pro NRW/Pro Koeln, while emphasizing its anti-immigrant and 
anti-Islam stance, has worked to distance itself from the 
neo-Nazi associations of the NPD, although the NPD also claims 
that it does not endorse National Socialism. 
 
 
 
¶4.  (U) State electoral rules will also play a role in the 
expected limited success of small parties in the upcoming 
municipal elections in NRW.  Unlike in state parliament 
elections where parties must cross an electoral threshold of 5 
percent of the popular vote to win seats, in NRW parties are not 
restricted by this stipulation in municipal elections.  The 
5-percent threshold has kept parties like the NPD out of the 
state parliament, meaning they have concentrated their efforts 
on elections where there are no thresholds. 
 
 
 
NPD in NRW Under Observation 
 
------------------------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶5.  (U) The NPD has been designated as a right-wing extremist 
party by the NRW Interior Ministry, and is monitored by the 
State Office for the Protection of the Constitution (OPC). 
Founded in 1964, the NPD advocates against parliamentary 
democracy, supports pan-Germanism, and is considered by the OPC 
to be racist, anti-Semitic, revisionist, and to endorse the same 
elements as the National Socialist movement.  Unlike in several 
West German states in the 1960s and several East German states 
more recently, the NPD has never come close to winning seats in 
the NRW state legislature.  In the 2004 state-wide municipal 
elections, however, the NPD gained a seat in every city/county 
council election in which it ran a candidate.  Currently, the 
NPD holds seats on the city councils of Dortmund and 
Moenchengladbach, and in the councils for the counties of 
Ennepe-Ruhr, Heinsberg, Maerkischer Kreis, and Rhein-Sieg. (NRW 
 
DUSSELDORF 00000032  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
is comprised of 396 cities and communities and 31 counties.)  In 
2009, the NPD is expected to run in three times as many 
communities and counties as it did in 2004, but the party is far 
from reaching its stated goal of having candidates running in 
every county and large city.  The NPD has only 780 party members 
in NRW, and they tend to be concentrated in large cities or in 
the urban counties. 
 
 
 
¶6.  (U) An expert on right-wing extremism for the NRW Interior 
Ministry explained to Pol/Econ Staff last week that part of the 
NPD's difficulties in NRW is it so far has been unable to 
connect to the regional neo-Nazi and skinhead scene as it has 
done in states in the former East Germany. This lack of 
connection eliminates a large part of the traditional NPD voting 
bloc, and hinders its ability to bring in new members. The NPD 
has also publicly distanced itself from those groups, especially 
by limiting the number of public protests.  Despite this 
problem, the NPD has almost doubled its public activities in the 
state.  In 2008, the NPD organized 125 public events, an 
increase from just 68 in 2007. 
 
 
 
Anti-Islam Party Pro NRW/Pro Koeln 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
 
 
¶7.  (U) Pro NRW was formally founded in 2007 as an extension of 
Pro Koeln, which gained prominence in Cologne by opposing the 
planned construction of a "mega-mosque" in Cologne-Ehrenfeld 
(reftel A).  Pro NRW pursues a right-wing populist agenda, 
opposing what it refers to as "the Islamization of Europe."  In 
May 2009 and last year (reftel B), Pro Koeln organized an 
"Anti-Islamization Congress" in Cologne, which was attended by 
right-wing parties from the Czech Republic and Belgium as well. 
Pro Koeln has been monitored by the OPC since 2004, and Pro NRW 
has been monitored by extension since its inception.  The 
leadership of the organizations is essentially identical, and 
their platforms, other than opposition to the specific mosque, 
are identical.  Party leaders Markus Beisicht, the Pro Koeln 
candidate for Lord Mayor of Koeln, and Manfred Rouhs both trace 
their roots to the Republikaner (REP), a right-wing political 
party that the OPC stopped monitoring in 2006, after a power 
struggle led the more radical right-wing elements to quit the 
party. 
 
 
 
¶8. (U) Pro NRW claims to be running candidates in 44 different 
local or municipal elections this fall.  A source within the OPC 
explained that these numbers are deceptive, however, in that Pro 
NRW has used voter names from their anti-mosque petition on 
their candidate list without asking permission. Additionally, 
Pro NRW has exaggerated the districts or constituencies that 
their candidates seek to represent. The source further explained 
that persons who have dropped their candidacies, a particularly 
likely scenario with pro NRW candidates as the party requires 
them to finance their own campaigns, are still counted in Pro 
NRW's numbers. 
 
 
 
Comment:  Signifying Little, Politically 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) The OPC source expects the NPD to pick up a couple of 
more seats in local councils in the August 30 election, but 
definitely not enough seats to wield any real legislative power. 
 Furthermore, this is unlikely to lead to electoral success in 
the state parliament elections in 2010.  Likely results for Pro 
Koeln are harder to pin down because of their consistent 
numbers-inflation. They are certainly a less powerful party than 
the OPC thought them to be a year ago, and while they will 
likely also gain seats, it is doubtful that it will be a major 
shift in power. 
 
 
 
¶10.  (U) This message was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
WEINER