VZCZCXRO2889
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHDK #0994/01 2150742
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 030742Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2873
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1242

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 000994 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W 
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM XY PU
SUBJECT:  GUINEA-BISSAU:  SANHA WINS SECOND ROUND PRESIDENTIAL 
ELECTION 
 
REF: DAKAR 696 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Guinea-Bissau held the second round of its 
presidential election on July 26 following weeks of campaigning that 
saw Party for Social Renewal (PRS) candidate Kumba Yala level 
significant accusations against African Party for the Independence 
of Guinea Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC) candidate Malam Bacai Sanha. 
 All observers, including those from Embassy Dakar, agreed that the 
election was well organized and technically sound.  As had been the 
case in the first round of voting, turnout was relatively low due in 
part to recent violence (reftel).  Receiving 63 percent of the votes 
cast, Sanha handily defeated Yala.  It has been reported that Yala 
has announced that he will respect the results of the election.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
FIRST ROUND RESULTS 
------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) On June 28, Guinea-Bissau held its first round of voting in 
a presidential election to replace its assassinated former 
president, Joao Bernardo "Nino" Vieira.  Results were announced on 
July 2, in which Sanha and Yala received the highest numbers of 
votes cast, with 39.5 percent and 29.5 percent, respectively.  Since 
neither candidate managed to earn a majority of votes cast, a second 
round of voting was scheduled for July 26 in accordance with the 
Bissau-Guinean electoral code.  Independent candidate Henrique Rosa 
came in third, with 24 percent, failing to win a spot in the second 
round. 
 
THE SECOND ROUND CAMPAIGN 
------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Campaigning between Sanha and Yala began soon after the 
results were announced and continued until July 24, two days before 
the second round of voting.  The campaigning period was peaceful, 
without any incidents of violence.  While some vanquished candidates 
from the first round threw their support behind Sanha, including 
fourth-place Iaia Djalo, Rosa pointedly did not publicly throw his 
support to either candidate.  As such, both Sanha and Yala tried to 
win over Rosa's swing constituency as well as the approximately 40 
percent of voters who did not participate in the first round. 
 
¶4. (SBU) During the campaign, Yala publicly challenged Sanha to a 
debate on matters of state.  Sanha, who characterized their last 
debate in the run-up to the 2000 as a the debacle, refused. 
 
¶5. (SBU) In a meeting with PolCouns on July 24, the CNE President 
said that security would be increased for the second round and would 
remain in place until after the second round results are announced. 
The CNE President also admitted that first round participation was 
lower than had been expected but that the CNE was engaged in a "get 
out the vote" campaign in advance of the second round.  Both 
candidates also stressed the need for first round abstainers to vote 
in their campaign speeches. 
 
YALA'S ACCUSATIONS 
------------------ 
 
¶6. (SBU) Even though the campaign was peaceful, Yala leveled a 
number of accusations at Sanha and the PAIGC, including alleging 
massive electoral fraud, and at one point even accusing them of 
having received Al Qaeda financing and a secret agenda of Islamic 
fundamentalism. (NOTE: Many Rosa supporters are Catholic and wary of 
Islam's growing influence in Guinea-Bissau. END NOTE.) 
 
¶7. (SBU) On July 24 PolCouns and the Canadian Dakar-based 
Guinea-Bissau watcher met with both Yala and his campaign manager, 
Baltazar Cardoso, Yala claimed that the National Electoral 
Commission (CNE) is "in conspiracy" with the PAIGC to rig the 
elections.  He claimed that in recent elections, such as the 
November 2008 legislative elections, ballot boxes did not arrive in 
Balanta areas until 3pm on the day of voting, while in other 
regions, voting was allowed for up to three days.  (NOTE: The 
Balanta are Guinea-Bissau's largest ethnic group, comprising around 
30 percent of the population.  Balanta voters are the PRS's core 
constituency.  END NOTE.) According to Yala, results were fabricated 
in the country's most remote regions, where international observers 
supposedly do not go. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Yala claimed that PRS members had caught children voting 
illegally in the first round of the presidential election, and that 
they had caught people with second round ballots pre-marked in 
support of Sanha in advance of the second round.  He claimed that 
the PAIGC gives voters pre-marked ballots (ostensibly provided by 
the CNE) and 10,000 CFA (approximately USD 21).  Voters hide the 
pre-marked ballot, vote, bring back the unmarked ballot from the 
 
DAKAR 00000994  002 OF 002 
 
 
polling station, and are given an additional 10,000 CFA. 
Additionally, Yala claimed that the PAIGC are buying electoral cards 
and giving them to their supporters.  (COMMENT: While there may be 
some of this dubious activity going on, we find it unlikely that any 
such activity would occur on a scale that would alter the election 
result.  There is no evidence to suggest that any of Yala's 
accusations are true.  END COMMENT.) 
 
¶9. (SBU) Cardoso insisted that he has proof of Al Qaeda's 
involvement in the PAIGC.  He claimed that former Bissau- Guinean 
intelligence officials have been working with the PRS and say that 
Al Qaeda is not only present in Guinea-Bissau but working with the 
PAIGC.  In his opinion, nobody notices these Al Qaeda members 
because the international community believes members of Al Qaeda are 
all "white," while in fact Al Qaeda has black members in 
Guinea-Bissau.  He claimed to have proof of this involvement and 
offered to share it at a "later time" in secret, but not publicly. 
 
ELECTION DAY 
------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) The election took place without incident and was 
well-organized, well-executed, and without any notable tension. 
PolCouns and EmbOffs observed the balloting in Bissau, Mansoa, 
Bissora, Bafata, Gabu, and surrounding rural areas.  U.S. Embassy 
observers did not notice any dubious or fraudulent activities.  The 
presence of candidates' representatives at all polling stations for 
the entire day, from the opening of polls to the counting of votes, 
helped to minimize irregularities.  Additionally, observers from the 
African Union (AU), the Economic Community of West African States 
(ECOWAS), the Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries (CPLP), la 
Francophonie, the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA), 
and the European Union (EU), as well as Canada, Japan, and the 
United Kingdom agreed that the election proceeded in a smooth and 
transparent manner, void of any significant irregularities. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Although voting proceeded smoothly, voter turnout remained 
relatively low by historical standards, much as it had during the 
first round of elections.  Voter turnout for the second round was 
estimated to be approximately 61 percent. 
 
ELECTION RESULTS 
---------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) On July 27, United Nations (UN) Representative of the 
Security General (RSG) Joseph Mutaboba held a meeting with Heads of 
Delegation of the various electoral observation missions including 
the EU, AU, ECOWAS, the CPLP (Community of Portuguese-Speaking 
Nations), La Francophonie, UEMOA (the West African Economic and 
Monetary Union), Canada, Japan, the U.K, and the United States.  At 
the meeting Mutaboba announced that before the election he had 
brokered the signing of a memorandum of understanding between both 
candidates regarding recognition of official results and a 
commitment to strictly legal recourses for contesting the result. 
 
¶8. (SBU) On July 29, the National Electoral Commission (CNE) 
announced the official results.  Sanha received 224,259 votes cast, 
or 63.31 percent.  Yala garnered 129,963 votes, or 36.69 percent. 
Strikingly, Sanha won 8 of Guinea-Bissau's 9 electoral regions, even 
managing to defeat Yala in the Balanta-heavy Oio region.  Yala 
conceded defeat and congratulated Sanha. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Comment: Many observers were concerned that Yala would 
refuse to recognize the results and attempt some form of 
extra-constitutional method to become president, including the 
possibility of engineering a coup d'etat with the support of Balanta 
military officers.  While today this scenario seems less likely, it 
should not be completely discounted given the history of the country 
as well as more recent events. 
SMITH