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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CANBERRA 000752 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2019 
TAGS: EAID PGOV PREL AS FJ PP BP
SUBJECT: AUSTRALIA RETHINKING ITS FIJI POLICY 
 
CANBERRA 00000752  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor James F. Cole for 
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
  ------- 
  SUMMARY 
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¶1. (C/NF) EconCouns paid a courtesy call on GOA Parliamentary 
Secretary for Pacific Island Affairs Duncan Kerr on August 12 
to review Australia's views on the recent Pacific Islands 
Forum meeting.  Kerr discussed GOA aid to the Pacific and 
Fiji.  Kerr said that while Australia remains extremely 
pessimistic about the prospects for the Bainimarama regime to 
move towards democracy and strongly supportive of a tough 
line, Canberra does not want to see a complete collapse.  The 
GOA would support IFI financial assistance if Fiji nears 
economic collapse, according to Kerr, who expressed concern 
about Fiji,s potential fall to a failed state and the costs 
it would incur for Australia.  He said that the GOA is close 
to exhausting its diplomatic options on Fiji to little 
apparent effect, and appeared sympathetic towards reengaging 
with Fijian military strongman Bainimarama.  He requested 
input from the U.S. on a way forward.  End summary. 
 
-------------------------- 
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PACIFIC 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Kerr noted that apart from Fiji, the GOA and 
especially AusAID has made progress in the Pacific, but notes 
the situation remains fluid.  He said that sooner or later 
PNG Prime Minister Michael Somare will exit the political 
scene, and that internal actors are already beginning to 
position themselves for his departure.  He also said that 
Solomon Islands, upcoming elections cast uncertainty on the 
future of Australia,s intervention there. 
 
¶3. (C) Kerr highlighted the Cairns Compact on Strengthening 
Development Coordination in the Pacific, signed at the 
Pacific Island Forum in early August, which calls on donor 
countries to coordinate their efforts, avoid project 
fragmentation and duplication, and make sure that projects 
address priorities in recipient countries, national plans. 
He worried that the Pacific Island nations might see the 
Compact as a device by Australia and New Zealand to extend 
control and infringe on their sovereignty, and said that the 
GOA will proceed carefully to avoid inciting this perception. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
GOA WOULD APPROVE OF IFI SUPPORT TO FIJI 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C/NF) Kerr was pessimistic about Fiji, noting severe 
deterioration in Fiji,s political, economic, and social 
conditions.  He said, &We,ve made a cabinet-level decision 
that we don,t want to see Fiji move to a social and economic 
collapse.8  Calling it the &worst possible outcome,8 he 
said that Australia would be responsible for picking up a 
failed state, at a cost much higher than the GOA,s 
intervention in the Solomon Islands, while seeing 
Australia,s progress in strengthening weak Pacific Island 
nations undermined by Fiji,s collapse.  He said that if Fiji 
verges on economic disaster, the GOA would support IFI 
intervention, including budget support.  He wondered if Fiji 
strongman Frank Bainimarama is emboldened by the belief that 
the international community may ultimately concede to 
Qthe international community may ultimately concede to 
financially rescuing the regime. 
 
-------------------- 
DIPLOMATIC DEAD-END? 
-------------------- 
 
¶5. (C/NF) Kerr said that the GOA has spent a great deal of 
time and energy on a diplomatic strategy designed to isolate 
Bainimarama by suspending Fiji from the PIF and the 
Commonwealth if he did not start moving in the right 
direction.  Australia has built regional support for this 
approach, according to Kerr, who said that he was pleasantly 
surprised at the level of concern from PIF members at the 
recent leaders' retreat.  With Fiji's suspension from the PIF 
 
CANBERRA 00000752  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
and imminent suspension from the Commonwealth, Kerr expressed 
concern that Australia will have "exhausted" its diplomatic 
arsenal with no clear next step.  He questioned the utility 
of gradually reducing engagement with Fiji, and appeared 
supportive of an idea by the GOA,s High Commissioner in Fiji 
to conduct &a surprise gesture of goodwill8 towards the 
military regime.  However, he said, the diplomatic momentum 
and effort invested in punishing Fiji is difficult to stop, 
and a decision to change course must ultimately come from 
Prime Minister Rudd. 
 
----------------------- 
SEARCHING FOR A WAY OUT 
----------------------- 
 
¶6. (C/NF) Kerr believes that Bainimarama cannot give up power 
as he would end up at the mercy of his enemies, and suggested 
that the international community should find a safe way for 
him to step down.  He also said that Bainimarama is the only 
military man who believes in a return to civilian rule, as 
less senior officers are getting the taste of being in power. 
 Kerr said he worries that things could be worse if 
Bainimarama stops believing in his own rhetoric or if another 
military officer ousts and supplants him.  He said that 
Bainimarama will &either be shot or we,ll have to do 
business with him.8  Australian High Commissioner to Fiji 
James Batley has instructions which allow him to speak with 
Bainimarama, according to Kerr, who complained that he has 
chosen to interpret his instructions in the narrowest 
possible way. 
 
----------------- 
THE U.S. CAN HELP 
----------------- 
 
¶7. (C/NF) Stressing his respect for and  good relationship 
with Ambassador McGann, Kerr encouraged U.S. ideas on how to 
address Fiji.   Reiterating U.S. opposition to the idea of 
terminating ongoing Fijian participation in existing 
peacekeeping operations, Econcouns said the United States 
shares Australia's concerns and approach even if we are not 
in complete agreement on every tactical move.  Stressing that 
he was speaking personally, Kerr said that it may be useful 
for the U.S. to &ask us the obvious questions8 on what 
happens if and when Fiji has been suspended from the 
Commonwealth without showing any moderation in the regime's 
behavior. 
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COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶8. (C/NF) Kerr,s request for the U.S. to ask &the obvious 
questions8 appears to be an attempt to spur reevaluation of 
Australia,s Fiji policy.  It seems that the GOA is on cruise 
control toward increasing disengagement with Fiji, without 
achieving any desired effect.  Kerr appeared sympathetic to 
some level of reengagement with Bainimarama. 
 
Clune