VZCZCXRO5574
OO RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHBJ #2481/01 2432313
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 312313Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5839
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHGO/AMEMBASSY RANGOON IMMEDIATE 4774

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 002481 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/CM AND EAP/MLS - LAURA SCHEIBE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2029 
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV BM CH
SUBJECT: PRC DOWNPLAYS CONFLICT IN BURMA'S KOKANG REGION 
 
REF: RANGOON 567 
 
Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlson.  Reasons 1. 
4 (b, d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary.  China's Nansan border region adjacent to the 
Kokang region of Burma is calm, and refugees have already 
begun to return to Burma, ConGenOff observed August 30 and 
¶31.  PRC government statements and Chinese media accounts 
downplayed the seriousness of the conflict between ethnic 
Kokang fighters and Burmese military forces and disputed 
UNHCR claims that 10,000-30,000 refugees had fled to China. 
Chinese scholars did not anticipate that recent events would 
impact China-Burma relations and suggested that current 
instability could create an opportunity for increased 
U.S.-China cooperation on Burma.  End summary. 
 
SITUATION ON THE GROUND AT PRC-BURMA BORDER 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Consulate Chengdu PolOff (ConGenOff) visited the 
border region August 30 and observed that the PRC-Burma 
border crossing at Nansan was closed and the situation calm. 
On August 31, ConGenOff observed what appeared to be people 
returning to Burma: several vehicles dropped off refugees at 
the Chinese side of the border where they continued on foot 
into Burma.  ConGenOff further noted 190 ten-person tents set 
up near the border to accommodate refugees.  The tents were 
orderly and clean and labeled "Ministry of Civil Affairs 
disaster relief."  Yunnan authorities had commandeered 
adjacent apartment buildings and commercial buildings to 
accommodate refugees.  ConGenOff heard from a local resident 
in direct contact with PRC officials that many Kokang forces 
had crossed into China over the weekend of August 29-30 and 
had surrendered their weapons to PLA and People's Armed 
Police (PAP) representatives.  According to this source, the 
Kokang fighters were held in a separate area from other 
refugees and would return to Burma following the conclusion 
of fighting, although ConGenOff was not able to confirm this 
account.  ConGenOff spoke August 31 with a man who claimed to 
be a Kokang local government soldier who gave up his weapons 
and came to Nansan.  He said he was a PRC citizen who went to 
Kokang six years earlier and entered the Kokang army.  He 
said he could not return to Kokang because he was a former 
soldier, but Burmese and other documented Chinese citizens 
could return.  ConGenOff observed many hundreds of cars with 
Kokang license plates parked in a lot across the road from 
the refugee camp. 
 
¶3. (SBU) ConGenOff spoke with one local man involved in 
construction in Kokang and Nansan who said that the recent 
intensified fighting brought a "large refugee tide."  He 
quoted official figures of 13,000 refugees but noted that 
some people have said the number is as high as 30,000.  He 
said 90 percent of the refugees are ethnic Han but Burmese 
citizens. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Professor Liu Zhi, Dean of Yunnan University 
Institute of International Relations, separately noted to 
PolOff August 31 that the period of active conflict in the 
Kokang region had been short and the fighting had concluded 
by August 31.  However, the underlying source of conflict, 
which she characterized as ethnic strife ("minzu chongtu"), 
did not have a near-term solution.  Although Liu was unclear 
on the approximate number of people that had entered China 
from Burma, she was confident that they would all soon depart 
refugee camps and return to Burma. 
 
BEIJING DOWNPLAYS THE SERIOUSNESS OF INCIDENT 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  The situation in Kokang was already calm ("yijing 
pingjingle"), and the number of Burmese that crossed in to 
China was much fewer than UNHCR's estimate of 10,000-30,000, 
MFA Asian Affairs Department Burma Division Deputy Director 
Chen Chen told PolOff August 31.  Chen was unable to provide 
a precise estimate of the number of people, explaining that 
the local government, not the central government, had 
responsibility for handling the inflow of people.  Chen 
expressed PRC satisfaction with Burma's response to MFA 
Spokeswoman Jiang Yu's August 28 public statement calling on 
Burma to "properly handle domestic problems and maintain 
stability in the China-Myanmar border region," and urging 
"Myanmar to protect the security and legal rights of Chinese 
citizens in Myanmar." He pointed to an August 30 Xinhua 
article that reported the Burmese government had apologized 
for the casualties suffered on the Chinese side of the border 
as a result of fighting in Kokang, expressed gratitude for 
the positive treatment China provided to Burmese that crossed 
the border, and assured China it would protect the legal 
 
BEIJING 00002481  002 OF 002 
 
 
rights and interests of Chinese citizens in Burma. 
 
¶6. (C) MSS-affiliated China Institutes of Contemporary 
International Relations (CICIR) Burma scholar Song Qingrun 
separately described to PolOff the situation along the 
China-Burma border as calm, noted that refugees had already 
begun returning to Burma, suggested that Burmese forces 
already controlled most of the Kokang region and 
characterized Western media reports of the situation as 
"exaggerated."  (Note: Chinese press and official comments 
downplaying the flow of refugees into Yunnan province 
notwithstanding, Minister of Public Security Meng Jianzhu 
visited the border area on August 30 and Reuters reported 
August 31 that Chinese journalists claimed that their papers 
had been told not to publish independent reports on this 
issue.) 
 
FOCUS ON STABILITY 
------------------ 
 
¶7. (SBU) China's primary interest is in maintenance of 
stability along its border with Burma, according to CICIR's 
Song.  China had encouraged Burma to negotiate with Kokang 
fighters to resolve the current conflict.  While 
acknowledging that recent conflict in the Kokang region had 
harmed Chinese economic interests, Song did not believe 
current tensions would impact the "overall positive 
atmosphere" of China-Burma relations.  Song predicted that 
the situation in the border region would soon return to 
normal and cross-border trade would soon resume. 
 
U.S.-PRC COOPERATION ON BURMA 
----------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) CICIR Foreign Policy Program Director Ni Xiayun 
separately commented to PolOff that recent fighting in the 
Kokang region ran counter to U.S. and Chinese interests in 
regional stability.  Ni suggested that increased U.S.-China 
cooperation on Burma could have a positive effect on the 
overall bilateral relationship, similar to the benefit to 
U.S.-China cooperation derived from the Six-Party Talks.  Ni 
suggested a U.S.-China-Burma trilateral dialogue, a 
U.S.-India-China-Burma four-party dialogue, or a private 
U.S.-China channel on Burma as options for expanding 
U.S.-China cooperation on Burma. 
 
¶9. (U) This message was drafted in coordination with ConGen 
Chengdu. 
HUNTSMAN