VZCZCXRO4594
OO RUEHDBU
DE RUEHKB #0680 2430351
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 310351Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY BAKU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1650
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0110
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 0923

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000680 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CARC, OSD FOR DMELLEBY, USNATO FOR HEVANS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS MARR AJ GE TX
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: GERMAN MOD COMMENTS CLOSE OFF AWACS 
ISSUE 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Donald Lu, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d 
). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary.  Local media gave top billing August 28 to 
reporting Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan's apparent refusal to 
allow Konya (Turkey)-based NATO AWACS aircraft to overfly 
their territory en route to their NATO missions over 
Afghanistan.  The news broke through a statement by a German 
MOD spokesman, Thomas Raabe, in Suddeutsche Zeitung that 
"uncooperative allies" had refused permission and therefore 
the deployment that the Bundestag had specifically authorized 
to support the mission had to be recalled. In the local 
context the reports are unusual, because there has been very 
little effort by any Allied mission to push the issue here, 
and there was no confirmation of an outright refusal. 
However, it was clear from the outset that the GOAJ was 
apprehensive about the idea because of its lack of knowledge 
of the capabilities of the E-3 aircraft, and more importantly 
the optics of the issue vis--vis Russia and Iran.  GOAJ 
reaction to the media attention has been indirect.  The 
Embassy is monitoring whether this latest controversy is 
likely to invite scrutiny of existing blanket U.S. overflight 
arrangements.  End Summary. 
 
 
¶2. (C) Raabe's statement blaming Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan 
for the recall of the German assets from Konya ran in 
Suddeutsche Zeitung August 26.  Responses from GOAJ 
ministries have been minimal.  MOD denied any knowledge of 
the issue and referred questioners to MFA.  MFA spokesman 
Elkhan Polukhov avoided the issue, noted Azerbaijan's recent 
doubling of its military contingent in Afghanistan and 
reiterated Azerbaijan's commitment to cooperate in 
peacekeeping efforts.  The German Embassy also denied any 
knowledge of the issue. (Comment: The German Embassy's denial 
of knowledge is credible.  The German mission is small and 
disengaged on most issues.  End Note.) 
 
¶3. (C) In fact, there was little diplomatic effort in Baku on 
the issue to supplement whatever discussions were going on in 
Brussels.  Apart frm the brief visit of the SYG's Special 
Representtive to the Caucasus and Central Asia Bob Simmons 
on 24 July and an earlier, discreet mention by Charge to 
presidential adviser Novruz Mammedov on July 17, both of 
which were inconclusive, we know of no other concerted 
efforts or formal requests that would have drawn a definitive 
reply from the GOAJ. 
 
¶4. (C) The public commentary by Germany is likely to make 
this issue very difficult to recover.  Local press speculated 
that the government's refusal - which media reports all took 
as a given - was due to Russian pressure.  The GOAJ was 
clearly sensitive to this issue, as the unusual downplaying 
of Simmons' visit attests (no NATO embassies were briefed or 
participated in any aspect of the visit.)  Whether or not 
Moscow intervened in the issue, the "fact" of Azerbaijan's 
refusal is public knowledge and a chip Baku can try to cash 
in with Russia at a later time.  Also, even as Baku discussed 
the issue in good faith with Simmons, they were unlikely to 
take the plunge unless they knew the Turkmen were about to do 
the same. 
 
¶5. (C) Comment.  Regardless of whether Azerbaijan refused 
outright NATO's requests for AWACS overflight, the German MOD 
comments have created that fact on the ground in Baku. 
Existing U.S. gas-and-go and blanket overflight for transport 
aircraft are immensely valuable. Pushing the NATO AWACS issue 
further in Azerbaijan raises considerable risk that our 
existing arrangements could be called into question. 
LU