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OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHVB #0407/01 1831259
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O 021259Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9372
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000407 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2019 
TAGS: PGOV HR SI EUC
SUBJECT: PM RESIGNATION SPURS CABINET SHAKEUP; COALITION 
GOVERNMENT HOLDING STEADY 
 
REF: ZAGREB 402 
 
Classified By: Acting DCM Rick Holtzapple, Reasons 1.4 B/D 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  A day after Ivo Sanader announced his 
resignation as Prime Minister, the reasons for his abrupt 
departure are no clearer.  While Sanader is still acting 
Prime Minister, current Deputy Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor 
has the support of all of Sanader,s coalition partners and 
should be able to formally become the head of government 
within the coming days or weeks.  Sanader,s resignation has 
spurred some reshuffling of ministries but we expect no major 
changes in terms of Croatia,s foreign or domestic policy 
goals, although EU aspirations will likely be modulated in 
response to the difficulties Sanader has faced on that aim. 
The leadership of Sanader,s party, the Croatian Democratic 
Union (HDZ) has also been reworked and Kosor will take the 
helm of a party that features a much more conservative 
leadership team.  END SUMMARY 
 
RULING COALITION HOLDING TOGETHER 
 
¶2. (SBU) Sanader proposed that Deputy Prime Minister and 
Deputy Head of the HDZ Jadranka Kosor be given the mandate to 
form a new coalition government headed by the HDZ.  All of 
the smaller members of the current coalition government have 
committed to supporting Kosor as the new premier, but all 
have indicated they will seek new coalition agreements and 
will table new demands of the HDZ.  Press reports indicate 
that Kosor can count on at least 83 votes of the 153 seat 
parliament, and the HDZ is hoping that Croatian President 
Stjepan Mesic will give the mandate for Kosor to form a new 
government quickly.  For his part, Mesic said publicly that 
he would utilize his right to consult all party chiefs before 
awarding the mandate to form the next government.  However, 
privately Mesic advisors told the Ambassador that Mesic would 
almost certainly give Kosor the mandate.  Mesic, per the 
consititution, reminded citizens that Sanader remains the 
acting prime minister until the Sabor convenes and formally 
accepts Sanader,s resignation.  Meanwhile the main 
opposition parties are pushing for early parliamentary 
elections and, along with many press commentaries, are 
stressing that Sanader bailed-out on Croatia amidst a crisis 
and argued Kosor,s premiership would be illegitimate in the 
eyes of voters. 
 
OLD NAMES BUT NEW MINISTRIES 
 
¶3. (U)  The departure of Sanader and the pending elevation of 
Kosor has caused a few changes to the cabinet.  Bozidar 
Pankretic of the Peasant Party will fill Kosor,s position as 
Deputy Prime Minister and will switch portfolios with the 
HDZ,s Petar Cobankovic; Pankretic will take over the 
Minister of Regional Development (making him a key player on 
refugee return issues) and Cobankovic will move back to his 
previous position as Minister of Agriculture.  Tomislav Ivic, 
a parliamentarian who participated in an Embassy-organized 
NATO tour, will take over Kosor,s position as head of the 
Ministry of Family, Veterans' Affairs and Intergenerational 
Solidarity.  Two new minister posts were created.  Bianca 
Matkovic (formerly Sanader,s Chief of Staff and currently a 
State Secretary in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs) will 
become a Minister without Portfolio to coordinate, inter 
alia, Croatia,s EU bid; and Davorin Mlakar return to a 
resurrected Ministry of Administration (which he headed in 
the 1990's).  Education Minister Dragan Primorac resigned his 
position after he learned of Sanader,s decision and no 
replacement for his ministry has yet been named.  Also, 
current Justice Minister Ivan Simonovic refused to answer 
reporters, questions about whether he would stay in his 
position when Kosor takes over. 
 
HDZ SHAKEUP: SNOW WHITE AND THE SEVEN DINOSAURS? 
 
¶4. (SBU) In addition to being the prime minister designate, 
Kosor will also assume Sanader's position as President of the 
HDZ at this Saturday,s (July 4) annual party congress.  This 
congress will also see Health Minister Darko Milinovic 
installed as Deputy President of the party and six members of 
the HDZ's current executive committee elevated to the role of 
party Vice President.  The elevation of Petar Cobankovic, 
Bozidar Kalmeta, Andrija Hebrang, Vladimir Seks, Ivan 
Jarnjak, and Ivan Suker marks the re-ascendancy of several of 
the more conservative and nationalistic founding members of 
the HDZ. 
 
PM RESIGNATION WITHOUT CLEAR REASON, BUT THEORIES ABOUND 
 
¶5. (C) As noted reftel, Sanader's July 1 resignation gave no 
details why he was leaving his post, nor for the timing of 
the decision.  Sanader said only that his "strategic goals 
 
ZAGREB 00000407  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
are accomplished;" stated he was ready for a new beginning 
after years in politics; and made vague reference, in 
response to a reporter's question, to the frustration he felt 
regarding Croatia,s stalled EU bid.  However, most political 
observers, including almost his cabinet ministers, and all of 
his coalition partners, were caught off-guard.  Close Sanader 
confidants, Minister of Culture Bozo Biskupic and MFA State 
Secrtary Matkovic, both confided to the Ambassador that they 
did not learn of Sanader,s decision until shortly before his 
public announcement and could only conclude that Sanader was 
"tired" and needed a break.  Parliamentary Speaker Luka 
Bebic, who was, along with Kosor, one of the first to be 
informed of Sanader's decision on the evening of June 28 was 
particularly critical of the EU process as being a cause for 
Sanader,s frustration, and in fact some media speculate that 
Sanader,s resignation was, in part, intended to highlight to 
the EU how destabilizing Slovenia,s blockade of Croatia,s 
EU bid has become. 
 
¶6. (C) Media reports and commentators have speculated on more 
than a half-dozen potential explanations for Sanader's 
resignation, ranging from family health issues to blackmail 
to a "right wing coup" within the HDZ.  All of the HDZ 
insiders we spoke to, however, were emphatic that Sanader's 
announced departure from politics -- including his statement 
that he will not run for President -- was genuine, motivated 
by a sense that it was time to step aside, and not part of a 
plan to eventually run for President.  Political insiders 
from outside the HDZ, such as Serb MP and coalition partner 
Milorad Pupovac, or Democratic Center president Vesna Skare 
Ozbolt, are more inclined to believe that Sanader is 
pre-positioning himself for a run at the Croatian presidency 
in December and will re-emerge in the coming months as a 
candidate, without having to shoulder responsibility for 
Croatia,s current troubles. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶7. (C)  The reason or reasons for Sanader,s withdrawal from 
the premiership remain opaque, but HDZ insiders claim that 
this is not a ploy for Sanader to run for presidency down the 
road.  No matter what the cause, his departure and the new 
leadership will take the HDZ and very likely the new 
government in a more conservative direction.  The current 
border impasse with Slovenia is almost sure to mean a Kosor 
government will focus on preparing the HDZ for the upcoming 
presidential elections first, and responding to Croatia,s 
weakening economy second,  with EU membership coming in a 
distant third.  END COMENT 
BRADTKE