VZCZCXRO9862
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHWD #0246/01 1901606
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 091606Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0645
INFO RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP PRIORITY
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 WINDHOEK 000246 
 
DEPT PLEASE PASS TO USAID 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON EAGR WA
SUBJECT: NAMIBIA AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS 
 
WINDHOEK 00000246  001.4 OF 004 
 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (SBU) While Namibia maintained positive economic growth in 
2008, the consensus for 2009 is that the economy will shrink 
between 0.6 and 2.0 percent.  Two of Namibia's primary 
sectors, mining and fishing, shrank considerably in 2008 and 
all indications are that this slump is continuing in 2009. 
Manufacturing, which is closely tied to mining and fishing, 
has also declined.  Tourism, a sector that has seen rapid 
growth in recent years, is poised to contract between 10 to 
20 percent.  Construction remains a bright spot.  Government 
infrastructure and a few large private construction projects 
are fueling growth in this sector.   The financial (banking) 
sector remains profitable due to high interest rate spreads 
and high banking fees, but there is public pressure to 
regulate those fees.  End Summary. 
 
------------------------------------ 
Provisional Results Don't Look Good 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) The Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), the 
government's official statistical body, released its 
preliminary economic results for calendar year 2008. 
According to the CBS, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 2.9 
percent in 2008 (using 2004 as a base year).  However, the 
Namibian economy contracted by 3.7 percent during the second 
quarter and 4.6 percent the third quarter of 2008.   As table 
one below illustrates, since 2006, Namibia has experienced 
five separate quarters of negative growth.   Although there 
were two consecutive quarters of negative growth starting in 
late 2006, (Q4 2006 and Q1 2007), the economy rebounded quite 
robustly in 2007.  The two consecutive quarters of negative 
growth (the standard definition for a recession) in 2008 
present a more worrying trend. In the fourth quarter of 2008, 
the economy rebounded slightly, growing at an anemic 0.64 
percent, but preliminary data for the first quarter of 2009 
shows a sharp decline in the overall economy. 
 
Table 1: Quarterly GDP Data 2006-2008 
======================================= 
  Year         N$       % Change Over 
Quarter     Millions   Previous Quarter 
--------------------------------------- 
2006 Q1      11,278        0.40% 
2006 Q2      11,698        3.72% 
2006 Q3      11,972        2.34% 
2006 Q4      11,895       -0.64% 
2007 Q1      11,542       -2.97% 
2007 Q2      11,821        2.42% 
2007 Q3      13,224       11.87% 
2007 Q4      12,806       -3.16% 
2008 Q1      13,360        4.33% 
2008 Q2      12,872       -3.65% 
2008 Q3      12,275       -4.64% 
2008 Q4      12,353        0.64% 
======================================= 
Note: Figures use 2004 as a base year. 
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics 
 
---------------------------------- 
Primary Sectors Down, Secondary Up 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U)  According to the CBS' preliminary results, of 
Namibia's three primary sectors ) agriculture, fishing and 
mining ) only agriculture saw positive growth in 2008.  Of 
Namibia's secondary and tertiary industries, only 
manufacturing recorded an overall loss for the year.  The 
manufacturing sector is closely tied to the primary sectors 
of agriculture (meat processing), fishing (fish processing), 
and mining (diamond cutting and polishing).  The only 
large-scale manufacturing not tied to the primary sectors is 
the beverage and brewing (beer) sector. 
 
Table 2: 2008 Growth in Percentage Terms 
by Various Sectors As Compared to 2007 
============================================= === 
                  Q1    Q2     Q3     Q4   Total 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
Agriculture     -1.0   7.1    2.0    2.7    3.0 
Fishing         17.6  -5.9  -17.1  -56.4  -12.4 
Mining         -21.3   6.1   20.7   -3.9   -1.8 
Manufacturing  144.0  41.7  -52.9  -32.1   -2.6 
Elect. & H2O    -2.7  25.1   -5.9    8.6    5.9 
 
WINDHOEK 00000246  002.4 OF 004 
 
 
Construction    54.8  -7.1    0.6   16.8   15.6 
Whole/Retail     7.0   3.8    3.1   -1.5    2.8 
Hotels/Dining   23.5  33.8  -24.9  -22.9    1.0 
Trans./Commun.   5.0   1.6    5.7   11.3    5.9 
Finance         16.8  14.1    5.3    5.2   10.1 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
GDP Total       15.6   8.8   -7.1   -3.4    2.9 
============================================= === 
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics 
 
------------------------- 
What does 2009 Look Like? 
------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U)  Most economists forecast negative growth 
(contraction) of between one and two percent in 2009. Until 
recently, the Bank of Namibia (BoN) maintained one of the few 
optimistic forecasts, but in June it revised its prediction 
downward to a negative 0.6 percent.  According to the CBS the 
economy contracted by 5.8 percent (seasonally adjusted) in 
the first quarter of 2009. 
 
Table 3: Percentage of Contraction in 
The Hardest Hit Sectors Q1 2009 
====================================== 
Mining            -65.6 
Fishing           -33.5 
Manufacturing     -39.5 
Hotels/Dining     -17.1 
====================================== 
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics 
 
------ 
Mining 
------ 
 
¶5. (U) Mining has been a mainstay of Namibia's export 
earnings.  Mining and mining-related manufacturing generally 
contribute approximately 30 percent or more of GDP.  Diamonds 
and uranium are the dominant mining products. Diamonds 
normally have contributed over 40 percent of Namibia's export 
earnings, seven percent of government revenue, and 10 percent 
of GDP.  Due to global economic conditions, however, diamond 
demand has dropped dramatically. The CBS estimates that the 
diamond sub-sector (diamonds and value-added production) 
contracted 76.1 percent in the first quarter of 2009.  Annual 
production is projected to drop to 800,000 carats from the 
2.1 million mined in 2008.  The one bright light in the 
mining sector is uranium, which grew by 28.5 percent during 
the first quarter. 
 
¶6. (U) NamDeb, the diamond mining joint venture between the 
Namibian government and DeBeers, has struggled during the 
current economic crisis.  The company suspended production 
before the Christmas holidays. It has since drawn down its 
inventories enough to resume full production by the third 
week of July. 
 
------------------------------ 
Fishing and Marine Aquaculture 
------------------------------ 
 
¶7. (U) Fishing and fishing-derived manufacturing have 
contributed between five and seven percent of GDP over recent 
years. Approximately 90 percent of fish caught are exported, 
and fishing represents 20 percent of export earnings.  The 
industry directly and indirectly employs over 12,000 
Namibians.  Nevertheless, the finishing industry has steadily 
declined since 2003 with a corresponding drop in its direct 
(non-manufacturing) contribution to GDP.  High input (mainly 
fuel) prices squeezed the industry's already razor thin 
profit margins in 2008.  The fishing industry saw a massive 
56.6 percent drop in the fourth quarter of 2008. 
 
Table 4: Fishing Industry Revenues 
And Direct Contribution to GDP 
==================================== 
Year     Revenue     Percentage 
       N$ Millions     of GDP 
------------------------------------ 
2004      1,564        3.64% 
2005      1,435        3.25% 
2006      1,308        2.76% 
2007      1,060        2.14% 
2008        929        1.83% 
==================================== 
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics 
 
WINDHOEK 00000246  003.4 OF 004 
 
 
 
¶8. (U) The GRN is credited with reasonably managing the fish 
stocks it inherited from the apartheid regime, which had been 
vastly depleted by 1990.  The GRN has a policy of encouraging 
onshore (value-added) production.  To support this policy, 70 
percent of catches must be brought in &wet8 (not frozen) to 
local processing facilities.  Most in the industry argue that 
there is now over capacity (in onshore facilities) and under 
investment in fishing vessels, which drive down 
profitability. 
 
¶9. (U) Lower fuel prices raised hopes for a more profitable 
year in 2009. However, according to the CBS, fishing revenues 
declined 33.5 percent in the first quarter of 2009.  Overseas 
demand is the industry's most critical factor.  Citing the 
potential for continued weakened international demand, the 
industry has asked the GRN for help via a reduction in fuel 
levies and an increase in Total Allowable Catches (TACs). 
TACs are quotas the government places on fish catches to 
allow fish stocks to recover.  The government responded with 
a slight increase in TACs on certain varieties of fish. 
 
¶10. (U) Namibia enjoys some of the world's richest waters, 
and it is considered an ideal location for marine 
aquaculture.  In 2008, the fledgling marine aquaculture 
industry-- oysters primarily-- was devastated by red tide 
outbreak that wiped out 90 percent of its stocks.  Many 
Namibian oyster companies terminated their operations. 
Short-term prospects for a rebound in the marine aquaculture 
industry are not clear. 
 
---------------- 
Financial Sector 
---------------- 
 
¶11. (U) There are only four major commercial banks operating 
in Namibia, three of which are subsidiaries of South African 
banks.  Foreign exchange controls and fairly tight banking 
regulations have shielded Namibia's banks from exposure to 
the current global economic crisis.  As Namibian banks are 
generally conservative in their lending practices, 
non-performing loans are not a significant issue.  To 
stimulate domestic demand and spur economic growth the BoN 
has lowered its key interest rate (the repo rate) several 
times over the past few months.  The current rate stands at 
seven percent.  Commercial Banks, however, enjoy a huge and 
profitable 450 basis point spread between the BoN's repo rate 
and the prime rate (11.5 percent).  High fees and high 
interest rates have led the banks to become the target of 
increasing public discontent.  Perhaps as a response, BoN 
governor Tom Alweendo warned banks that they will need to 
reduce their prime lending rate to 375 basis points above the 
repo rate or face unspecified sanctions. 
 
- - - - 
Tourism 
- - - - 
 
¶12. (U) Tourism is an increasingly important sector in 
Namibia's economy, contributing 14.5 percent of GDP in 2008, 
and employing 18.2 percent of working Namibians.  According 
to the Namibian Tourism Board, Namibia has experienced steady 
growth in tourist arrivals over the past few years.  Total 
arrivals increased by 11 percent, while European and other 
non-African visitors increased by 17 percent from 2006 to 
¶2007.  (Note: Final figures are not yet available for 2008, 
but predictions are that there was a slight increase over 
¶2007. End Note). 
 
¶13. (U) Jackie Asheeke, CEO of the Federation of Namibian 
Tourism Associations (FENATA), believes 2009 will see an end 
to recent high growth rates.  Asheeke predicts a 10-15 
percent drop in tourism sales, but is quick to admit she is 
not certain how the industry will fare as it takes time to 
collect data. The BoN now predicts hotels and restaurants, 
the BoN's proxy indicator for tourism, will see a 20 percent 
decline in 2009.  Many in the tourism industry also see the 
recent closure of Air Namibia's direct Windhoek to London 
route as compounding their problems.  Air Namibia, a 
government-owned enterprise, is the only international air 
carrier with direct flights to Europe.  Other carriers 
require transits through South Africa. 
 
¶14. (U) Asheeke argues that new entrants (companies four 
years older and younger) to the tourism market will be 
hardest hit.  New tourism companies, mostly tour operators 
and lodges, are only in the process of building up their 
 
WINDHOEK 00000246  004.4 OF 004 
 
 
business so are less known to customers and typically carry a 
high debt load.  These players may not survive without 
government assistance or relaxed repayment terms.  Most new 
entrants are emerging black entrepreneurs, and the government 
may feel pressure not to allow them to fail in large numbers, 
especially in an election year.  Game hunting farms are 
another segment of the tourism sector feeling the effects of 
the economic downturn most acutely, according to Asheeke. 
Americans are the fastest growing client base for game 
hunting farms.  Bookings for professional hunting guides are 
down about 15 percent, according to some industry insiders. 
 
-------------------------- 
Construction a Bright Spot 
-------------------------- 
 
¶15. (U) Government infrastructure projects (buildings, roads, 
and rail) and several large private initiatives support 
construction as a growth sector.  The major private sector 
construction projects include: 
 
-- a high-rise luxury hotel in Windhoek; 
-- a large super-dairy processing plant; 
-- a large cement factory in Ohorongo; and 
-- several new uranium mining projects, most notably 
Areva's Trekkopje uranium mine and desalination plant. 
 
NamPower, the state-owned energy company also has two major 
energy projects under construction: the Caprivi 
Interconnector (a transmission network) that will directly 
link power plants in Zambia and Zimbabwe to central Namibia; 
and installation of a fourth turbine at Namibia's only 
hydro-power plant at Ruacana Falls on the Angolan border. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶16. (U) Most private economists argue that the Central Bureau 
of Statistics' (CBS) numbers should be viewed with some 
degree of skepticism.  Preliminary GDP numbers often vary 
quite significantly from final figures.  The CBS also tends 
to revise prior year data without providing an explanation 
for the changes.  Nevertheless, economists agree with the 
overall trends captured by the CBS's numbers.  End Comment. 
MATHIEU