VZCZCXRO3651
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHTRO
DE RUEHDIR #0269/01 1821301
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 011301Z JUL 09
FM RPO DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0442
INFO RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/USCENTCOM TELECOM CENTER MACDILL AFB FL
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI PRIORITY 0365
RUEHDIR/RPO DUBAI 0443

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 RPO DUBAI 000269 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  7/1/2019 
TAGS: PREL PGOV CASC IR
SUBJECT: IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE OFFICE DUBAI: WINDOW ON IRAN - JULY 
1, 2009 
 
DUBAI 00000269  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Timothy Richardson, Acting Director, Iran 
Regional Presence Office, DOS. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
¶1. (S/NF) Unconfirmed Detention of Dual National American 
Citizen in Iran:  An Iranian-American journalist (please 
protect) who was covering the presidential election for Tehran 
Bureau from inside Iran until his credentials were revoked 
several days ago said he personally witnessed the arrest of a 
dual U.S.-Iran national during a pro-Mousavi street rally 
several days before the election.  According to the journalist, 
who described the young man as a friend, he remains in detention 
despite the fact that the other demonstrators detained at the 
same time have since been freed.  However, it is unclear if the 
IRIG knows the detained individual is an American.  The young 
man's parents, who are in Iran, believe that publicizing his 
American citizenship would further imperil their son, given the 
government's recent attempts to portray the USG as an instigator 
of the post-election unrest.  Comment: The journalist disclosed 
this information, while refusing to divulge the full name of the 
person detained, during a conversation about the arrest of Greek 
journalist Iason Athanasiadis in Iran last week.  He argued that 
Athanasiadis' case was greatly complicated by the public 
disclosure that he is also a U.K. national. 
 
 
 
¶2. (S) Ahmadinejad's Popularity Falling in the Arab World?: A 
Syrian journalist who owns a media consultancy firm in Dubai 
argued the post-election crisis in Iran has made Ahmadinejad 
vulnerable to criticism in the Arab street.  The journalist, a 
contact of ConGen Dubai's Regional Media Hub, believes the 
heated debates before the election made it clear to Arabs that 
this election was about Iran, not the U.S.  This distinction 
provided an unprecedented opportunity for Arab commentators to 
criticize Ahmadinejad without siding with the U.S.  The contact 
stressed, however, that Ahmadinejad has only lost standing among 
"moderate" Arabs; he believes that the majority of Arabs hold 
such strong opinions - whether for or against Ahmadinejad - that 
recent events have likely not swayed their positions one way or 
the other.  The journalist observed that, in the tradition of 
the Mahdi, many in the Arab street initially viewed Ahmadinejad 
as a "benevolent dictator. "  However, some moderate Arabs now 
realize that, despite his image in the Arab world as a humble 
man standing up to the West, Ahmadinejad is resented by many in 
Iran for mismanagement, incompetence, and corruption.  As a 
result of this very public fall from grace, he argued that 
Ahmadinejad is no longer the "untouchable, holy figure" in the 
Arab world he once was. 
 
 
 
¶3. (C) NIOC Executives Reportedly Purged After Election: The 
purging of reformist-leaning activists and academics has moved 
to Iran's oil sector, according to an Iranian businessman with 
close contacts with managers at Iran's National Iranian Oil 
Company (NIOC). Many senior managers at NIOC have been forcibly 
"retired" since the election, supposedly because they were 
suspected of harboring sympathy with the opposition. This 
reported slate of dismissals comes amid the firing of Deputy Oil 
Minister for Planning Akbar Torkan - a Mousavi supporter - after 
he publicly questioned the government's oil sector policies in 
the run-up to the June 12 election. Our contact - who does not 
believe Mousavi would have won a fair election - speculated that 
the NIOC "house cleaning" was the government's reaction to 
widespread post-election rumors that the opposition would call 
for a strike in Iran's oil sector.  Comment: On June 1, Iran's 
state news agency carried a report quoting NIOC's Director 
General as saying that Torkan's ability to publicly criticize 
the Ahmadinejad government without fear of retribution proved 
that Ahmadinejad was tolerant of his critics.  Torkan's removal 
after the election suggests otherwise. The move also could be a 
continuation of attempts Ahmadinejad has made in recent years to 
go after Iran's "oil mafia," a term he frequently uses to refer 
to Rafsanjani's network in the sector. 
 
 
 
¶4. (S) Iran National Soccer Team Players Quit Voluntarily:  A 
colleague of Team Melli captain Ali Karimi and coach Afshin 
Ghotbi, who was in Dubai to drop off Karimi's passport for a 
visa, denied rumors that the players who wore green wristbands 
during the June 17 match with South Korea have been forced off 
the team.  He said that the players faced limited professional 
opportunities in Iran, and therefore chose to retire in order to 
pursue opportunities with teams abroad.  According to the 
contact, the Iran Football Federation (IFF) has not taken any 
disciplinary action against the players, and they are all still 
in possession of their passports.  In fact, two of the players - 
 
DUBAI 00000269  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
Mehdi Mahdavikia and Vahid Hashemian - have already traveled to 
Europe without any incident.  However, he said he suspects the 
IFF may choose to quietly punish the players once tensions in 
Iran cool down.  He also alleged that the IFF asked FIFA to take 
disciplinary action against the Team Melli players, but FIFA 
refused the request because it violated rules against political 
interference.  According to the contact, Coach Afshin Ghotbi, an 
American citizen, is not in trouble and will likely continue to 
coach Team Melli.  Comment: This account contradicts media 
reports suggesting the players were forcibly retired, had their 
passports confiscated, and were banned from travel. Although it 
is clear that Ali Karimi's passport was not confiscated, we will 
not know if he is able to leave the country until he tries to 
travel to Los Angeles in the coming days.  These events do 
corroborate other reports IRPO has received about the 
politicization of soccer under Ahmadinejad.  Several contacts 
have told us that Team Melli is always accompanied abroad by 
government security officials; and it was reportedly a security 
minder who ordered the players to remove the wristbands at 
half-time.  Despite Ahmadinejad's best efforts to capitalize on 
Team Melli, participants in the recent demonstrations carried 
placards the words "Iran's champions" emblazoned over a 
photograph of the players wearing "Mousavi green. " 
 
 
 
¶5. (S) Expediency Council Researcher Describes Drafting of 
5-Year Development Plan:  A researcher in the Expediency 
Council's Center for Strategic Research (CSR) who was in Dubai 
to get a visa explained the CSR's role in drafting the 5-Year 
Development Plan. The researcher works in the agriculture 
section in the economics branch of the CSR; he and 16 other 
researchers/experts were responsible for drafting the "vision" 
for the development plan's parts related to agriculture.  The 
vision, he said, includes production, investment, and 
construction goals.  Their contribution, combined with the plans 
from other sections at the CSR, were then debated by the full 
Expediency Council and forwarded to the Supreme Leader for his 
approval.  The Ahmadinejad administration is now responsible for 
drafting the details of the plan and afterwards it will be sent 
to the Majles for approval.  The researcher discounted the 
notion that Ahmadinejad might balk at the Expediency Council's 
vision because the President had representatives in attendance 
during the Expediency Council's debate about the plan and he 
said the version approved by the Supreme Leader had everyone's 
support.  The agriculture section, and the CSR more generally, 
is also responsible for reviewing the government's performance 
relative to Development Plan benchmarks; these reports are also 
provided to the Supreme Leader.  He also described the structure 
of the CSR, explaining that the CSR has 5 branches focusing on 
the Economy, International Relations, New Technology such as 
biotechnology and nanotechnology, Energy, and Social Welfare. 
Within the Economic branch, which he knew more about, there are 
departments for Agriculture, Planning, Microeconomics, and 
Investment.  The agricultural department has recently been 
focusing on food security and irrigations projects.  Comment: 
The Expediency Council's role, per the constitution, is to 
arbitrate disputes between the Guardians Council and the Majles 
and provide guidance to the Supreme Leader.  The CSR's hand in 
formulating the development plan indicates that the EC 
proactively interprets its mandate to provide guidance and has 
broader involvement in formulating the government's strategic 
direction than the constitution implies. 
 
 
 
¶6. (C) Visa Applicants Comment on Post-Election Unrest:  Iranian 
visa applicants in Dubai have generally expressed frustration 
with the outcome of the election.  Many student applicants, in 
particular, have complained about the results, and alleged 
cheating, but few have been active participants in the 
demonstrations against the regime.  Several students from Tehran 
University said that although they support the protesters, they 
do not want to participate in the demonstrations due to the risk 
of getting killed.  Comments:  The pool of visa applicants drawn 
to Dubai is largely made up of the westernized northern Tehran 
elite; a cohort that should theoretically be most aggrieved and 
offended at the outcome of the election.  The applicants in 
Dubai, however, have not been at the forefront of the 
demonstrations.  Even the students, between preparing for their 
final exams or coming to Dubai for their visa interviews, seem 
to have had other things to do and avoided the demonstrations. 
The collective sense from the applicants is one of resignation. 
Notable comments: 
 
 
DUBAI 00000269  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
 
 
- A visa applicant working for MTN Irancell, a 
quasi-government-owned mobile phone provider, said the company 
received an order from the government the day before the 
election instructing them to cut phone-based text messaging 
services on election day.  Per press reporting, the messaging 
service remains off. 
 
 
 
- A student from Tabriz said that many people there are upset 
with the outcome of the election and that the city largely 
supported Mousavi in the election.  When asked why Tabriz has 
remained quieter than Tehran, he said the heavy presence of the 
riot police on the city's streets dissuaded many from joining 
protests.  The student, who is not Azeri himself, said that only 
Mousavi was capable of leading the opposition movement, but at 
the same time said the opposition is not about Mousavi himself, 
it's about seeking change and opening Iran to the West. 
 
 
 
- A student from Tehran University said she had not participated 
in the demonstrations because she was busy preparing for and 
taking her end-of-year exams.  The student explained that the 
exams were not uniformly delayed but that each school's faculty 
decided whether to delay the exams.  Her department - she is an 
anthropology student - is not located near the areas of greater 
unrest, and as a result, provided students the option of 
delaying their exams or taking them on time.  She said some 
students delayed solely to participate in the demonstrations; 
others, like herself, took their exams on time. 
 
 
 
- Another student from Tehran University said the protests and 
demonstrations were useful because they showed the world that 
Iranians are not all "terrorists."  However, he did not think 
the protests would force changes in the government any time soon. 
RICHARDSON