P 171536Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9081
INFO AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
AMCONSUL DURBAN PRIORITY 
AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG PRIORITY 
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 001450 
 
 
DEPT FOR AF/S - BISTAS AND AF/S - WALCHB 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2019 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL ZANU SF ZM
SUBJECT: A DIASPORA PERSPECTIVE ON ZIMBABWE POLITICAL 
DYNAMICS 
 
Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Madeline Q. Seidenstricker. 
Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: In a meeting with Poloff on July 15, 2009, 
George Sibotshiwe, former spokesman for Movement for 
Democratic Change (MDC) President Morgan Tsvangirai and a 
Zimbabwean national residing in South Africa, provided his 
analysis of changing political dynamics in Zimbabwe.  He said 
Tsvangirai was under heavy criticism from some of the top MDC 
leadership for lack of progress on outstanding issues.  He 
discussed the political strategy of President Robert Mugabe 
and his ZANU-PF party to discredit Tsvangirai as an authority 
in Zimbabwe.  Sibotshiwe had no hope that SADC would 
intervene to enforce compliance with the Global Political 
Agreement to improve the political situation, but thought 
SADC might be influenced to address the economic crisis, 
which could be used to bring about results on the political 
front.  End summary. 
 
-------------------------- 
TSVANGIRAI LOSING SUPPORT? 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Sibotshiwe worried that Tsvangirai could be losing 
political support.  He said participants at the MDC Caucus 
meeting on July 13 were "very angry" with Tsvangirai for 
failing to make progress on the outstanding issues, e.g. 
positions of Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono and Attorney 
General Johannes Tomana and swearing in of Agriculture Deputy 
Minister-designate Roy Bennett and governors.  He said 
Tsvangirai is very defensive of the inclusive government 
because if it failed, Tsvangirai would take it as a personal 
failure.  Sibotshiwe added, "This government is going to limp 
on until kingdom come with no progress on democratic reform" 
until President Robert Mugabe dies or the people become 
restless enough to take acton, which he said was highly 
unlikely.  Sibotshiwe predicts that Tsvangirai will lose 
30-35 percent of his votes by next June if emigration trends 
continue at current rates.  He criticized the MDC and 
Tsvangirai specifically for failing to promote the 
enfranchisement of the Zimbabwean diaspora in order to 
capture those votes. 
 
----------------------- 
MUGABE STILL IN CONTROL 
----------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Sibotshiwe perceives Mugabe's storming out of the 
meeting with Assistant Secretary Johnnie Carson on the 
margins of the African Union Summit as a strategy to 
undermine Tsvangirai's perceived authority days after 
Tsvangirai met with President Obama and European leaders.  In 
Sibotshiwe's view, Mugabe sent the message that regardless of 
Tsvangirai's standing on the international stage, he has no 
control in Zimbabwe.  He added, "Tsvangirai was given power 
in theory by the Global Political Agreement, but not power in 
practice." 
 
¶4. (C) Sibotshiwe also commented on ZANU-PF political 
dynamics.  He recently launched the African Democratic 
Institute (ADI) with headquarters in Johannesburg and through 
which he conducts democratic development activities in 
Zimbabwe (more information septel).  Through ADI's work in 
Matabeleland, Sibotshiwe learned that there has been a 
genuine split in ZANU-PF.  He said all of the ZANU-PF party 
structures there had converted to ZAPU.  He said this 
occurred about 2 1/2 months ago when ZAPU re-emerged with an 
active, although not strong, presence on the ground. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
SADC DONE WITH POLITICAL CRISIS IN ZIMBABWE 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Sibotshiwe said his contacts in President Jacob Zuma's 
office told him they were waiting for South Africa's term as 
Southern African Development Community (SADC) Chair to expire 
and let the next chair deal with Zimbabwe.  Sibotshiwe said, 
"SADC is not going to solve (the problems in Zimbabwe)" 
because the region's leaders think they have resolved the 
political crisis.  Sibotshiwe claimed that Tanzanian 
President Jakaya Kikwete told him, "The problem is solved." 
He said South African officials had told top MDC leaders to 
"deal with it" and compared negotiations with Mugabe to the 
ANC's negotiations with former South African President F.W. 
de Klerk. Sibotshiwe does think, however, that SADC could be 
convinced to get more involved in addressing the economic 
crisis in Zimbabwe in order to bolster stability in the 
region. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
SOUTH AFRICA POSSIBLY MORE HELPFUL UNDER ZUMA 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Sibotshiwe suggested the U.S. engage with South Africa 
on providing solutions to the economic crisis in Zimbabwe by 
offering to tie specific assistance to specific benchmarks. 
He believes South Africa under Zuma's leadership may be 
willing to broker a deal to get Mugabe's cooperation. 
Sibotshiwe said since Zuma came into power, the South African 
Government (SAG) has been more responsive to his requests, 
adding that his greatest success has come by channeling his 
requests through the Congress of South African Trade Unions 
(COSATU).  For example, he said he complained to COSATU about 
its and the SAG's lack of action on illegal diamond mining. 
Within days COSATU issued a statement on the subject and a 
Kimberley Process group went to Zimbabwe to investigate, 
which Sibotshiwe believes the SAG put in motion in response 
to COSATU's interventions.  He lamented that MDC had 
neglected COSATU and the relationship was "not good."  He 
added that his dealings with COSATU were as an interested 
individual, not representing MDC. 
 
¶7. (C) Comment: Sibotshiwe has lost influence within the MDC 
and is no longer in Tsvangirai's inner circle.  While he has 
voiced strong criticism of Tsvangirai's tactics in private, 
his agenda is to promote democracy and not to undermine 
Tsvangirai's support.  Sibotshiwe purposely has kept a low 
profile in carrying out ADI activities, such as work with the 
National Constitutional Assembly on the people-driven 
constitutional process. 
 
¶8. (C) Sibotshiwe is a good example of the interest level and 
involvement of the Zimbabwe diaspora in what is happening on 
the ground in their home country.  While most diaspora in 
South Africa do not have Sibotshiwe's level of access to key 
political players and resources, average Zimbabweans here are 
observing events in Zimbabwe with great interest and take 
every opportunity to comment via radio, newspapers, civil 
society organizations and other venues.  End comment. 
 
CONNERS