VZCZCXRO2421
PP RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHSL RUEHYG
DE RUEHMZ #0187/01 2021305
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 211305Z JUL 09
FM AMCONSUL MUNICH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4858
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEU/EU INTEREST COLLECTIVE
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000187 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV EUN GM
SUBJECT:  CSU DEMONSTRATES INDEPENDENCE AT PARTY CONVENTION, BUT 
MAINTAINS LINKS TO MERKEL'S CDU 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  (SBU) The Christian Social Union (CSU) celebrated the party's 
improving political fortunes at its July 17-18 party convention 
along with the 55th birthday of Chancellor Merkel (CDU), who spoke 
at the event.  Bavarian Minister President Horst Seehofer promised 
Merkel the CSU's full support in the fall Bundestag election 
campaign.  This re-energized CSU could prove to be a demanding 
partner, having adopted an election platform that differs from that 
of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), expressing skepticism about 
the EU's centralizing tendencies and calling for the German 
parliament to have a greater say on important EU issues.  The CSU's 
rebellious policies -- most recently over the Lisbon treaty 
ratification and earlier regarding the timing of tax cuts -- are 
widely viewed as the party's tried and true strategy for profiling 
itself before an election, thereby garnering more support.  This is 
something the CDU understands and generally supports.  While 
benefiting from this strategy, the party is still working to get its 
act together internally.  This was reflected in the fact that other 
party grandees, including Seehofer, had to content themselves with 
less than the traditional 90-percent show of support from the party. 
 End summary. 
 
Midlife Crisis Past for the Renewed CSU 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The CSU is on an upward trajectory as the recent EU 
elections and public opinion polls have shown, and in part because 
of the contributions of the nationally-popular Economics Minister 
Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, whom the party elected to the CSU Board 
virtually by acclamation.  Political observers present at the CSU 
party convention in Nuremburg observed a distinctly different 
atmosphere compared to during the July 2008 CSU convention, when the 
buzz was about the CSU's loss of influence in federal politics. 
This time, the CSU demonstrated confidence, having done surprisingly 
well in EU Parliamentary elections this past spring by winning 48 
percent of the vote.  Party Chair Seehofer demonstrated that he 
feels validated in the political renewal course he chose, in part 
based on populist, Bavarian "nationalist" themes. 
 
EU Position Not Debated 
----------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Part of its nationalist theme is reflected in the CSU 
election platform, which calls for compulsory consultations by the 
federal government with the Bundestag and Bundesrat before taking 
action in the EU Ministerial Council.  The recent verdict by the 
National Constitutional Court on the Lisbon treaty has given play to 
the CSU's alleged Euro-skepticism.  The CSU is calling for state 
parliaments to be involved in EU legislation affecting state 
interests.  The CSU further reiterated its call for public referenda 
on essential EU questions, such as EU expansion.  (Note: The CSU 
opposes Iceland's EU membership bid.)  Seehofer himself reiterated 
the CSU's insistence that the national and state parliaments play a 
greater role in EU issues.  At the same time, however, he assured 
Chancellor Merkel that he did not want the German government to be 
limited in its ability to act.  "We will find a sensible 
compromise," he promised.  There was no debate about EU politics at 
the convention. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) A CSU insider and advisor on foreign policy and EU 
matters, told us on July 20 that the CDU was not amused about the 
CSU's EU stance, which in the sister party's eyes would marginalize 
the role of the national government.  The CSU has worked out a 
14-point program on strengthening the rights of the German 
parliament in EU matters.  This is based on a bill that the CDU/CSU 
caucus brought to the floor in January, 2005, at which time it was 
voted down by the then governing SPD/Greens government.  This, the 
insider felt, was a good foundation for a CDU/CSU compromise.  A 
series of internal CDU/CSU meetings on this issue is scheduled 
within the next two months.  We also understand from political 
contacts that the CDU and CSU are not concerned that their 
differences over EU-politics will affect their show of unity before 
the September 27 elections.  CDU politicos view CSU's divergent 
policies as profiling tactics to garner more support in the run-up 
to the elections. 
 
The CSU and the New Generation Seek Their Footing 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶5.  Seehofer has also tried to boost the CSU by injecting it with 
younger members.  The party is still in the process of a fundamental 
reshuffle based on Seehofer's efforts, by which many influential 
politicians over 60 years old have lost their positions to younger 
members of the cadre.  Dissatisfaction in the ranks with this 
 
MUNICH 00000187  002 OF 002 
 
 
approach was reflected in the elections to the CSU Board, where 
anything less than 90 percent is considered a criticism.  Seehofer 
himself obtained "only" 88 percent of the vote re-electing him as 
CSU chairman, two percent less than he received in October, 2008. 
None of his four party deputies, among them Peter Ramsauer, top 
candidate for the Bundestag election, obtained a real vote of 
confidence.  The shining exception was the CSU's new national star, 
Federal Economics Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, who got 95 
percent of the vote.  People in Bavaria still talk approvingly about 
zu Guttenberg's tough stance during the Opel bankruptcy negotiations 
this past spring, which many credit with improving significantly the 
CSU results in the EU Parliamentary elections that took place 
shortly thereafter. 
 
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Comment 
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¶6.  (SBU) The analytical Merkel and the populist Seehofer will 
probably never be close friends, but they know that they depend on 
each other and each other's success to do well in the Bundestag 
elections.  Chancellor Merkel did little to support the CSU before 
the disastrous state elections in September 2008, and there was 
discussion thereafter that the CSU was on the way out as a regional 
power and a partner for the CDU.  Now the CSU is regaining power and 
Merkel has to take notice of her challenging and necessary partner. 
With his strong emphasis on an independent course, Seehofer has 
brought support back to his party. This may have caused some 
headaches in the CDU and perhaps risked alienating some CDU party 
veterans, but in the end, it benefitted the CSU and indirectly, also 
the CDU.  Seehofer feels confirmed in his approach after the strong 
showing in the EU elections, although some of this success should be 
attributed to the success on the national stage of Karl-Theodore zu 
Guttenberg. 
 
¶7.  (U) Consulate General Munich coordinated this report with 
Embassy Berlin 
 
¶8.  (U) Track Munich reporting at the classified link - 
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Germ any. 
 
HELLMAN