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DE RUEHMC #0261/01 1881701
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FM AMCONSUL MONTERREY
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INFO RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO 4886
RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUEHMC/AMCONSUL MONTERREY 9408

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MONTERREY 000261 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  7/7/2019 
TAGS: PGOV ECON KCRM KCOG MX
SUBJECT: PAN FAILS TO RETAKE GOVERNORSHIP OF NUEVO LEON 
 
MONTERREY 00000261  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Bruce Williamson, Consul General, Monterrey, 
State. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
¶1.  (SBU)   Summary.  The PRI retained the governorship of Nuevo 
Leon and took majorities in the state legislative and 
congressional delegations in an election that focused heavily on 
economic and security issues.  The PAN managed to retain control 
of the state capital, Monterrey, and other important 
municipalities.  The election results appear to be clean but 
both the PAN and PRI exploited weaknesses in the new election 
laws to their advantage.  The new governor-elect of Nuevo Leon, 
36-year old Rodrigo Medina, is expected to continue the policies 
of the current governor.   End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  In the state of Nuevo Leon, the PRI used its much 
vaunted party structure to bring out its voters and maintain 
control of the governorship despite a strong national effort by 
the PAN party.  Overall, voter turnout was 53%, but much higher 
in PRI regions such as the heavily populated city of Guadalupe 
which ended up being the deciding factor in the governor's race. 
   The PRI was also able to win back the majority in the state 
legislature and capture additional seats in the federal 
congress.  Except for a handful of small towns, the 
municipalities held by the PAN or the PRI did not change hands, 
including the state capital of Monterrey which remains with the 
PAN. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  While President Calderon remains popular in the 
state, local economic issues trumped security in the election 
booths.   Polls show Calderon consistently scores an approval 
rating in the high 60's.  Dr. Camilo Contreras Delago, a 
director at Mexico's Colegio de a Frontera Norte, a publicly 
sponsored think tank, believes that Calderon's strong stance 
against the drug cartels is largely responsible for his approval 
rating.  However on economic issues, the local PRI party was 
better able to communicate how it would generate employment and 
otherwise alleviate the effects of reduced incomes and lowered 
remittances (i.e. social spending).  Whether talking about the 
economy or security issues, candidates from both sides were 
rhetorically very similar, highlighting the few ideological 
differences between the two parties in Nuevo Leon.   The voters 
were motivated to chose a candidate they felt would most likely 
bring change.  Both candidates studied the 2008 presidential 
campaign of President Barack Obama and often used the same 
language or images of the Obama campaign to invoke this idea of 
change. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Both of the main local political parties worked 
vigorously to exploit the new election laws enacted in 2007 and 
¶2008.  There were 74 complaints registered with the State 
Electoral Commission (CEE) prior to the elections.  Most of the 
complaints appeared to be legitimate violations but the CEE has 
only issued fines in two cases - one against the PAN and one 
against the PRI.  Starting with the new pre-campaign season 
designed to bring transparency to the candidate selection 
process, both parties scrapped their plans to have voter 
primaries and instead chose their candidates by the traditional 
direct designation method (i.e. `dedazo').  By choosing 
candidates early on, each party was able to extend the normal 
campaign season an additional 60 days.  Negative campaigning, 
strictly prohibited in the election laws, was rampant.   Both 
parties also attempted to link the other to drug trafficking 
organizations.  In one case, the PRI party accused the PAN of 
organizing the grenade attacks against the Consulate and the 
local Televisa Outlet.   Meanwhile, the PAN charged that the PRI 
candidate's father had employed relatives of an arrested drug 
trafficker in his household staff. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  To circumvent campaign spending limits, candidates 
illegally used public resources and also anonymous third parties 
to fund campaigns.  Both parties used their government employees 
to campaign on their behalf and gave away free food and gifts to 
win votes.  The PRI governor often advertised his 
administration's accomplishments or announced new public works 
for the benefit of his party.  The governor also provided free 
water and public transportation for much of the campaign season. 
 Not to be out done, PAN President Calderon visited the state to 
announced discounts on natural gas prices and his secretary of 
social development also announced new projects in the state. 
On the issue of outside funding, the governor's brother was 
discovered to have been operating a call center to make 
automated calls disparaging PAN candidates.  To bypass 
restrictions on television advertising, it is widely speculated 
that Rodrigo Medina paid broadcasters to provide positive 
coverage.  A study by the local newspaper, El Norte, reports 
Rodrigo Medina appeared 2.5 times more often in television 
interviews. 
 
¶6.  (C)  There have been no reports of illicit money having a 
direct impact on the campaign.   Prior to the elections, both 
the head of the CEE and the local IFE representative downplayed 
the possibility of drug trafficking organizations influencing 
the outcome.  They both insisted that the two parties have a 
strong incentive to police their own candidates to protect the 
national party.   (Note:  Local experts contend one of the 
 
MONTERREY 00000261  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
reasons for the use of the dedazo during the primary season was 
to prevent the embarrassment of choosing a corrupt official. 
Originally, one of the leading gubernatorial candidates for the 
PAN was Adalberto Madero, the current mayor of Monterrey whom 
business leaders have  accused of engaging in `corruption 
without limits.'  End Note.)  Meanwhile, the controversy 
surrounding PAN candidate (now mayor-elect) of San Pedro, 
Mauricio Fernandez and a clandestinely-taped recording 
indicating that he was willing to negotiate with drug 
traffickers to keep the city safe did not stick.  The tape was 
only a partial inconclusive recording of a conversation and 
Fernandez has a strong reputation for transparent government. 
While PRI Senator Eloy Cantu believes that the PRI made a strong 
effort to shield its campaign from narco-influence, he does not 
think that the same can be said about the PAN.   Cantu contended 
that the worse police force in the Monterrey region was that in 
San Nicolas - where one of the female officers was the 
girlfriend of the Gulf Cartel plaza boss and many officers were 
on the take.  The fact that the PAN ran the San Nicolas Police 
chief on its ticket for federal deputy - something it did not 
have to do since that seat is a safe one for the PAN - showed 
the party's true colors. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Post fielded a team of 11 election observers to 
monitor polling stations in the metro Monterrey area and also 
the CEE headquarters.  The election process throughout the state 
was generally very peaceful and orderly, with only scattered 
complaints of late openings at some polling stations.  From a 
planning and logistics perspective, the CEE also received high 
marks from both the observers and the political parties.  There 
was one unconfirmed report in the small border town of Anahuac 
that an armed gang was terrorizing PAN supporters. 
 
¶8.  (C)  Comment.  The recent election was less a referendum on 
President Calderon than a vote on local economic issues.   This 
election did, however, provide some insight into what to expect 
in the 2012 election if the electoral commissions are not given 
sufficient authority or if there are no changes to the election 
reform laws:  shortened campaign seasons will result in negative 
advertising, and campaign spending limits will encourage the use 
of public resources by incumbent parties and the use of 
unaccountable third parties. 
 
¶9.  (C)  Comment continued.  Governor-Elect Rodrigo Medina will 
likely continue the policies of the current governor, Jose 
Natividad Gonzalez Paras, with emphasis on small businesses, 
trade and education.  Medina joined Gonzalez Para's cabinet in 
2007 and the latter has been mentoring him ever since.  Post 
officers know Medina well and have had frequent and positive 
contact with him.  Because the majority in the local legislature 
will pass from the PAN to the PRI, Medina will not encounter the 
same kind resistance that Gonzalez Paras faced.  Medina's 
efforts to increase social spending will be hampered only by 
budget deficits caused by the economic recession.  On the issue 
of security, Medina has called for increased cooperation with 
the federal government to take on drug trafficking 
organizations, and he appears serious about cleaning up local 
police forces through additional training, mandatory lie 
detector tests and drug tests.   End Comment. 
WILLIAMSONB