VZCZCXRO3556
PP RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHDIR RUEHTRO
DE RUEHDO #0428/01 1821204
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 011204Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY DOHA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9203
INFO RUCNGEC/GAS EXPORTING COUNTRIES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZM/GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHAM/AMEMBASSY AMMAN PRIORITY 0755
RUEHNY/AMEMBASSY OSLO PRIORITY 0154
RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE PRIORITY 0293
RHMFISS/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DOHA 000428 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/01/2019 
TAGS: ENRG EPET EINV PREL TRGY QA RU IR
SUBJECT: QATARI ENERGY MINISTER SETS STAGE FOR GAS 
EXPORTERS' FORUM IN MEETING WITH AMBASSADOR 
 
REF: DOHA 27 
 
Classified By: Amb. Joseph LeBaron for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
-------------- 
(C) KEY POINTS 
-------------- 
 
-- In a meeting with Ambassador just prior to the June 29 
opening of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) 
Ministerial in Doha, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of 
Energy Abdullah Bin Hamad Al-Attiyah downplayed, as usual, 
the scope of the forum's agenda, denying that the members had 
the intention or capability to pursue cartel-like 
behavior. 
 
-- Early indications on the forum suggest that the GECF 
members (at least 10 of 14 attended the Doha meetings) are 
still struggling with a raison d'tre and in disagreement 
about objectives. 
 
-- The main item of business was to elect a Secretary General 
for the group, but the decision was postponed until 
the next GECF ministerial, slated for December in Doha. 
 
-- Separately, Al-Attiyah lamented to Ambassador the way CO2 
emissions are calculated internationally, noting that 
relying on a per capita emissions basis works to the 
disadvantage of small countries with energy-intensive 
activities such as Qatar. 
 
------------ 
(C) COMMENTS 
------------ 
 
-- Al-Attiyah's assertions to Ambassador and other U.S. 
officials about the GECF's limited scope usually rest on 
the premise that the natural gas industry's long-term 
contracts and regional distribution networks make 
cartel-like behavior impossible.  While true that the natural 
gas market is different than oil, these assurances 
ignore some trends moving natural gas in the direction of a 
global commodity.  Chief among these trends is the 
increasingly important role of Qatar and other liquefied 
natural gas (LNG) producers in providing swing supply and a 
growing spot market. 
 
-- The GECF's inability to decide on a candidate for 
Secretary General undercuts its influence and, 
consequently, the organization's prospects for enhancing 
coordination among members. 
 
End Key Points and Comments. 
 
------------------------ 
MINISTER'S VIEWS ON GECF 
------------------------ 
 
¶1. (C) Al-Attiyah told Ambassador, as he has previously, that 
the GECF is not intended or structured "as the press 
talks," and the organization will never concern itself with 
contracts or supply matters.  He projected that natural gas 
will not see a real spot market develop for years, and noted 
that Qatar prefers long-term contracts anyway. 
 
¶2. (C) The Minister underscored that most LNG is based on 
long-term, take-or-pay contracts.  Qatar is a "long-term 
thinker" and only sells a small amount of excess supply on 
the spot market.  (Al-Attiyah explained Qatar's recent sale 
of about 50 LNG cargoes to a U.S. firm on a spot basis by 
noting that delays to the start-up of the hurricane-damaged 
Golden Pass receiving terminal in Texas meant that 
newly-started production did not have a committed 
regasification facility to go to - and was thus freed up for 
spot sale.) 
 
¶3. (C) Al-Attiyah noted there were between 4-6 candidates for 
GECF Secretary General but he gave no indication 
whether Qatar was nominating someone or whom Qatar would 
support.  He also refused to be drawn out on whether the 
Secretary General position would have a structured rotation 
with fixed terms. 
 
----------------- 
GECF ATMOSPHERICS 
 
DOHA 00000428  002 OF 002 
 
 
----------------- 
 
¶4. (U) The GECF events in Doha covered two days - an 
Executive Committee meeting on June 29, and a 
ministerial-level gathering on June 30. 
 
-- 10 of the GECF's 14 members attended (according to press): 
Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, Egypt, Iran, Libya, 
Nigeria, Qatar, Russia, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela. 
Both Kazakhstan and Norway attended as observers, while the 
UAE attended as a guest. 
 
-- According to press accounts, the main item of business was 
to elect a Secretary General for the organization.  However, 
participants were unable to reach consensus and postponed the 
decision to the GECF's next meeting, which will 
reportedly be held in Qatar this December. 
 
-- Iran presented a nominee, Hojatollah Ghanimifard, who is 
currently the Acting Vice President for Investments of the 
National Iranian Oil Company.  Publicly available information 
suggests Ghanimifard is a technocrat. 
 
-- According to a detailed Russian press report from 
Kommersant Online, Russia had extracted a quid pro quo at 
the December 2008 GECF meeting which was to give a Russian 
the post of Secretary General in exchange for basing the 
organization in Doha.  According to this same report, Russia 
came to the conference without a candidate as 
several of its potential nominees declined to stand for the 
post.  A separate Arabic report from RIA Novosti, a Russian 
News Agency, indicated Russia pressed to postpone the 
Secretary General selection because of Russia's inability to 
find a suitable candidate. 
 
-- The Forum did appoint Qatar's Minister Al-Attiyah as 
President of the Forum, with Algeria's Minister of Energy 
and Mines Chakib Khalil as an alternate.  The President 
appears to have no role outside presiding over the 
ministerial meeting. 
 
-- (C) The Netherlands' application to join the GECF as an 
Observer was approved.  Dutch DCM Jeannette Nieuwenhuijis 
told Econoff Fabrycky June 28 that the Netherlands would not 
be sending a representative to this week's meeting. 
Qatari Energy Minister Al-Attiyah met with Dutch Economic 
Affairs Minister Maria Van der Hoeven in mid-June to discuss 
importing Qatari LNG into planned Dutch regasification 
terminals, according to press reports. 
 
-- (U) The accession of the UAE to the forum was also 
approved at the ministerial, according to Al-Attiyah. 
 
-- (U) Opening the forum, Al-Attiyah spoke in generalities 
and platitudes, noting that the forum is a "platform for 
cooperation."  He reviewed Qatar's leading role in the LNG 
market, and underscored the effects of the global economic 
crisis on the energy industry.  (A full summary of 
Al-Attiyah's remarks and other official coverage of the 
ministerial is available at the Qatar News Agency website - 
www.qnaol.com). 
 
------------- 
CAP-AND-TRADE 
------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Separately, in his meeting with Ambassador, Al-Attiyah 
referenced his recent trip to Washington and meetings with 
Congressional leaders, noting that Qatar is not against 
cap-and-trade schemes per se, but does have "reservations" 
about the way CO2 emissions are calculated internationally. 
Al-Attiyah worried that collecting data 
on a per capita basis severely disadvantages small states 
like Qatar, Singapore, and others.  He noted that their CO2 
output is insignificant compared to major polluters like 
China, but with the current data streams, Qatar looks like 
a bad polluter and might be subject to onerous restrictions 
via cap-and-trade schemes.  Al-Attiyah called for an 
emphasis on absolute values of CO2 emissions.  The Minister 
underscored Qatar's emphasis on clean energy sources, 
noting they are conducting studies on carbon capture. 
LeBaron