VZCZCXRO0329
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHEG #1467/01 2111439
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 301439Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3303
INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 001467

SIPDIS

NEA/ELA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2029
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KTER KJUS EG
SUBJECT: RAMPING UP PRESSURE ON THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD IN
EGYPT: RECENT ARRESTS

REF: CAIRO 1447

Classified By: Economic-Political Minister Counselor
Donald A. Blome for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

¶1. Key Points:

-- (C) High profile arrests of members of the Muslim
Brotherhood (MB) have continued to pick up speed since May.
Most recently, three MB-affiliated bloggers critical of
government tactics against the MB, including the wave of
arrests, have been detained themselves.

-- (C) MB attempts at public vigils in support of the
detainees have been shut down by security services. The MB
has demanded the immediate release of six detainees for
medical reasons. The highest profile detainee, Guidance
Council member Dr. Abdel-Moneim Abou El-Fotouh, has been
hospitalized.

-- (C) Accusations behind the arrests include participation
in an international MB conspiracy that seeks to reach power
by "force" as well as money laundering to support that
effort. MB leaders fervently dispute any association with
terrorist activity.

-- (C) The arrests are likely part of the regime's early
election preparations as well as an effort to fracture the MB
internally in the lead up to the election of a new Supreme
Guide in December 2009.

¶2. (S) Comment: As the 2010 parliamentary and 2011
presidential elections draw near, the GOE is ratcheting up
pressure on the MB. The strategy of targeting those that
Egyptian analysts consider "moderate" MBs like El-Fotouh
could push the MB in a more hardline direction, moving it
away from the political engagement strategy favored by
moderates. Radicalization might also serve the GoE's
short-term interest in relieving outside pressure to reform.
End Comment.

¶3. (SBU) On June 28, State Security Investigative Services
(SSIS) arrested Muslim Brotherhood (MB) Guidance Council
Member and Secretary General of the Arab Doctors Union Dr.
Abdel-Moneim Abou el-Fotouh along with 6 others. Abou
El-Fotouh is the third MB Guidance Council member to be
arrested since May. Five of the 22 members of the MB
Guidance Council are now in prison. (Two of them were
convicted in military courts in 2008 -- see para 9). The
most recent arrests have occurred in stages over the past ten
weeks. Guidance Council member Osama Nasr was the first to
be arrested along with 12 other members on May 14. The
arrest of Guidance Council member Dr. Mahmoud Hussein and ten
others followed on June 19. Dr. Gamal Adbul Salem of the
Egyptian Doctors Union, Currency Exchange owner Ossama
Soliman and four other MB members were among those arrested
July 28 with Abou el-Fotouh.

¶4. (C) No formal charges have been filed against this group
of approximately 33 MB figures. The detentions were ordered
under an "investigative memo" issued by the State Security
Prosecutor (SSP). The "memo" allows any suspect to be held
from 15 days to six months, with an extension to 12 months at
the discretion of the Public Prosecutor. Press reports
indicate that the latest 15-day extension was issued on July
¶25. The allegations under investigation include creating an
international organization to "propagate" MB thinking (in the
Middle East and Europe) in order to arrive at power "by
force" and with the aim of "establishing a Caliphate." The
memo also alleges the laundering of funds from outside Egypt
to support domestic MB activities, the diversion of funds
raised for Palestinian relief efforts to MB activities in
Egypt, as well as membership in a banned organization. The
"investigation memo" also implicates Guidance Council members
Saad Al Husseiny and MB Member of Parliament and MB bloc
leader in the People's Assembly Dr. Saad Katatni.

¶5. (C) The MB has uniformly dismissed the accusations as
false. Phoning into an Al-Jazeera talk show at the time of
El-Fotouh's arrest, MB Supreme Guide Mohammed Mehdi Akef said
that the "Egyptian regime has lost its mind, logic, wisdom
and respect for the law." In a posting on Ikhwanweb, an
English-language website not officially run by the MB but
often used as a vehicle for official releases by the group,
Dr. Mahmoud Ezzat, Secretary General of the MB, called the
attempts to connect the MB to terrorism outrageous and said
that evidence had been fabricated. The MB arrests have led
to several attempted protests or vigils on the steps of the
press syndicate, commonly used as a location to stage
protests. In each instance, security was out in force,
outnumbering protestors. In a July 28 press conference, head
of the Arab Doctor's Union humanitarian relief committee, Dr.
Ibrahim el Zafarani called El-Fotouh's detention damaging to
Egypt's regional "role" and its "image."

¶6. (C) Dr. El-Fotouh remains in custody. After some
controversy, El-Fotouh was transferred to a private hospital
on July 12 where he remains for treatment of complications
from persistent health problems (apnea and diabetes). MB
lawyers have petitioned the Administrative Court for his
release on medical grounds. Press reports on July 26
indicate that the Prosecutor visited El-Fotouh in the
hospital but no decision to release him has been issued.
(Note: Arrested in 1995 with 61 other MB leaders, Abou
El-Fotouh served a five-year sentence for attempting to
overthrow the regime. End Note.)

¶7. (C) In the view of lawyer and Shura Council member Reggai
Attia, it is likely that the group will remain in detention
while under investigation. Their cases will then be
transferred to a military court after what Attia called a
"decent amount of time" in order to suggest a fair and open
legal process. (Note: Although not MB himself, Attia has
defended MB members on several occasions. He does not
represent any of the current detainees. End note.)

¶8. (C) In the meantime, other arrests continue, including the
detention of three young, MB-affiliated bloggers July 22
(reftel). Contacts have told us all three bloggers remain in
detention. Ikhwanweb announced the released of one blogger
July 28, but that has not been confirmed. There have been
other reports of arrests of MB members throughout Egypt
including the July 21 arrest of 11 camp counselors
participating, according to MB press releases, in a scouting
event in Alexandria.

¶9. (C) Two other MB Guidance Council members remain in prison
on separate charges. Dr. Mohammed Ali Beshr, former
Secretary General of the Engineers Syndicate was sentenced by
the military courts in April 2008. Detained since 2006,
Beshr and 12 others detained at the same time have served
three-quarters of their sentences. Despite an Administrative
Court decision to release all 13 for time served, a standard
early-release procedure, the MOI has not implemented the
ruling. Thus far the MOI has argued successfully that the
Administrative Court did not take into account the threat to
national security of such a release. MB lawyers can appeal
to the Supreme Administrative Court, which could take up the
case in the fall. MB Guidance Council member Khayrat El
Shatr, often noted as a moderate contender for Supreme Guide
after Akef (despite his current detention), was arrested in
2006 and sentenced to seven years in April 2008. He is not
yet eligible for early release.

¶10. (S) Embassy contacts see the arrests as part of a GOE
plan to weaken the MB before the PA elections. This applies
particularly to the arrest of El-Fotouh, who is viewed as key
to internal MB election preparations. Many of these new MB
detainees, and El-Fotouh in particular, are widely viewed as
the moderate members of the Guidance Council. Al-Ahram
Center analyst and MB expert Khalil Al Anany called the
arrests a "grave escalation" of GOE efforts against the MB.
Al Anany warns that the political isolation of the MB could
leave room for new and more radical Islamist movements.
Anany and his colleague at Al-Ahram, fellow specialist on
Islamist movements in Egypt Amr Choubaki, both believe the
arrests of moderates are part of a carefully planned regime
effort to radicalize and thus marginalize the MB. Al Anany
further suggests turmoil in the organization will have the
added benefit to the regime of keeping the current Supreme
Guide in place, thus keeping the "devil they know."
According to Choubaki, Akef is committed to leaving his post,
if only to force an end to internal discord on the
organization's future. Both agree any successor will be
Egyptian.

¶11. (S) Al Anany and Choubaki tell us they doubt the
existence of an internationally organized MB movement,
suggesting any international ties are likely better defined
as a loose network of affiliated groups which vary in
organizational strength and ideology. They also doubt the
ability of any one group to dominate any element of this
loose network. Essam Soltan, lawyer, former MB, and
co-founder of the Al Wasat party, rejected the idea that
Cairo exerted any control on other MB "chapters." Soltan
called it ironic that whatever network now exists is due to
the efforts of MBs exiled from Egypt in the 1990's to remain
relevant at home. He added that following September 11, 2001
the MB understood that those ties could be "misinterpreted."
On the money-laundering charges, Essam said he understood
that there had been a transfer of funds from Lebanon to an
Egyptian businessman affiliated with the MB that was not
properly reported to banking authorities. He could not say
if this money was part of a business transaction or support
for MB election activities. However, he noted that such
support would not be unusual. Soltan had no information on
the re-direction of funds raised to support humanitarian
efforts in Gaza.
Tueller