R 161708Z JUN 09
FM AMCONSUL TIJUANA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 8897
INFO AMEMBASSY MEXICO 
ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
AMCONSUL TIJUANA

UNCLAS TIJUANA 000642 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV MX
SUBJECT: NATIONAL ACTION PARTY BENEFITS FROM VOTER DISAFFECTION IN 
BAJA 
 
REF: 08 TIJUANA 1149 
 
 
        SUMMARY 
        ------------ 
 
¶1.      The ruling National Action Party (PAN) is likely to 
dominate July 5 mid-term elections for federal deputies in Baja 
California Norte.   The opposition in Baja California is 
divided.  Voters are frustrated with politicians of all parties, 
but will manifest their dissatisfaction by staying home on 
election day or joining the national movement to nullify their 
vote, rather than voting the incumbent party out of office. 
Eventually, however, the PAN will need to address voters' 
concerns about narco-violence and the economy.  END SUMMARY. 
 
        IT'S THE PAN'S TO LOSE 
        ------------------------------ 
 
¶2.      Reliable polls are hard to come by, as most are sponsored 
by and therefore biased in favor of a particular party's 
candidate.   However,  Jose Ramirez Bilbao, a professor of 
politics and law at the Ibero-American University,  calculates 
the PAN is secure in at least five, or possibly six, of the 
state's eight electoral districts.   The Institutional 
Revolutionary Party (PRI) has a chance of winning in the seventh 
district, encompassing the small town of Tecate (previously a 
PRI stronghold, though the current mayor hails from the PAN) and 
District I, which includes the state's capitol, Mexicali.   It 
will also challenge the PAN in Tijuana's fourth district,  where 
a charismatic candidate, Fernando del Monte, from the tiny New 
Alliance Party (PANAL) is forcing both the PAN and PRI to 
campaign more vigorously and making the outcome in that district 
unpredictable. 
 
¶3.      The PAN's strength going into these elections might not be 
a surprise in the state which was the first in all of Mexico to 
elect a PAN governor in 1989.  The state's current governor and 
four of its five mayors are from the PAN (and the fifth is a 
PRIista in name only), and all but one (a plurinomal) of its 
current federal deputies are PAN.   Still, Baja's 
maquila-dominated economy has, like most northern Mexican 
states, been hit hard by the US slowdown.  That, combined with 
public despair over the government's inability to quell 
narco-violence might have produced a protest vote against the 
incumbent party.  Not so in Baja. 
 
        THE LONG SHADOW OF HANK 
        ------------------------------------ 
 
¶4.      One reason is the lack of a viable alternative in the 
state.  The PRI in Baja is struggling to come out from under the 
shadow of Tijuana's former PRI mayor, Jorge Hank Rohn, best 
known for his ties to organized crime and maintaining an animal 
menagerie in the municipal hall .   The 2007 elections which 
brought the PAN to such dominance in the state are largely seen 
as a protest vote against Hank and the "PRIistas."   Moreover, 
the Baja "PRIistas" are divided into at least two camps, one led 
by Hank, and the other by PRI Senator Fernando Castro Trenti. 
 Also, according to Manual Rodriguez, a 29-year-old former 
"PRIista" and now candidate for the Green Party (PV), Hank has 
alienated many of the young PRI militants in the state, causing 
them to flee to small parties (although the PV is known to be 
close to the PRI party apparatus, so Mr. Rodriguez has not 
strayed far).   As in many states in northern Mexico, the 
country's other major party, the Democratic Revolutionary Party 
(PRD), is virtually non-existent in Baja. 
 
        THE MORE THINGS CHANGE, THE MORE THEY STAY THE SAME 
        --------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶5.      But the main reason the PAN is likely to come out on top 
of the July 5 elections is that the protest vote, inasmuch as 
there will be one, will come in the form of null votes or voter 
absenteeism.    Virtually all observers expect turnout to be low 
(perhaps only twenty-five percent), and the national campaign to 
cast null votes as a form of protest has struck a chord in Baja. 
 Many voters, especially young ones, have little faith in the 
government, from whatever party,  to solve their problems. 
Najla Wehbe Dipp, another young candidate from PANAL who is 
bravely (though hopelessly) running against the Governor's 
brother in District V,  laments that the few people who do vote 
will be PAN loyalists, who other parties would never win over 
anyway.   She said the challenge for candidates from other 
parties like herself is to convince the other seventy-five 
percent of voters that nothing will change if they refuse to 
vote.   Wehbe told poloff, "people from my generation think they 
will punish the government by casting a null vote.  But, it is 
actually the opposite.   They will only be helping to return the 
same people to power." 
 
        BUT MAYBE NOT FOREVER 
        -------------------------------- 
 
¶6.      None of this means the PAN can rest on its laurels.   The 
PAN in Baja also suffers from division.  The national PAN 
apparatus created bad feelings among local party loyalists by 
(in their view) forcing the candidacy of Gaston Luken in 
District V while local "PANistas" favored another candidate. 
Further party division is going to ensue as party heavyweights 
start vying for the 2010 Tijuana mayoral race.   Also, while the 
electoral reform which went into effect last year (ref) will not 
have an impact on the final results of the election, according 
to Antonio Valladolid, an outgoing PAN deputy from Baja, the 
reform, which shortened the campaign period and reduced the 
amount of money parties can spend, is obliging the PAN to make 
more grassroots efforts than it has needed to in the past.   In 
addition, Guillermo Caballero,  a pollster hired by the state 
government, is warning the PAN administration that on the 
economic front, it is creating expectations it cannot meet. 
"Every day in the paper, some PAN official is talking about a 
new factory or investment that will supposedly turn the state's 
economic fortunes around, but the voters don't yet feel any 
economic recovery.   Creating these high expectations could come 
back to bite the PAN." 
 
¶7.      COMMENT: For now, though, the PAN is safely ensconced in 
Baja.   The state's next  representatives to the national 
legislature, from whichever party, can be expected to continue 
to support a federal police and military presence in the state 
because voters do not see any  other option amid continued 
violence.   This cannot, however, be interpreted as contentment 
among the population.    Sooner or later, the government will 
have to start showing some results on the economic and security 
fronts. 
 
 
KRAMER