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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 000271 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KPAO AINT BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA'S LOOMING DEMOGRAPHIC SQUEEZE 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY:  Bulgaria is shrinking.  Low birth rates, 
short life expectancy and persistent net outward migration 
have produced negative population growth, which, if not 
stemmed, will cause Bulgaria's current 7.2 million population 
to decline by nearly one-third by the year 2060.  The 
Government of Bulgaria has enacted the usual array of family 
incentive programs to tackle the problem, and the demographic 
issue has become a central plank in political party platforms 
ahead of July national elections. But without significant 
additional efforts to increase inward migration and reverse a 
devastating brain drain that began in the early 1990's, 
Bulgaria will face a critical demographic situation in coming 
decades. End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (U)  Bulgaria's population decline is rooted in low birth 
rates, short life expectancy and outward migration.  Although 
the birth rate ticked up in recent years of high economic 
growth, current rates are still not high enough to overcome 
negative population trends.  Life expectancy also lags behind 
EU averages.  Chronic underinvestment in medical facilities, 
lack of health and wellness programs, traffic fatalities 
twice the rate of the EU (2007 est.) and a tradition of heavy 
smoking are causing the country to fall behind.  Male life 
expectancy, for example, is only 69.48 years, compared to the 
EU average of 75.54 years. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Net outward migration is the main driver of 
negative population growth.  A brain drain that began in the 
early 1990's has continued.  Opportunities offered to 
Bulgaria's best and brightest by the 2007 European Union 
accession have only exacerbated the trend.  Twenty percent of 
Bulgarian college students currently go abroad to study, and 
of those, approximately 80 percent remain abroad, according 
to sociologist Zhivko Georgiev of Gallup International.  In 
recent years Bulgaria has also lost blue collar workers to EU 
countries such as Spain, Greece and Italy, where they can 
more than triple their salaries.  Polls show a majority of 
these laborers intend to return to Bulgaria eventually, but 
it is doubtful whether these returnees would be sufficient to 
reverse current trends.  To date, anecdotal evidence suggests 
only a small influx of returning workers to the country, 
despite the current global economic downturn. 
 
The Changing Face of Bulgaria 
----------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U)  Prospects for reversing the negative population 
growth are bleak.  The Bulgarian National Statistical 
Institute (NSI) projects the country's population will 
continue to decline through the years 2010 - 2060.  Estimates 
show a likely decrease from 7,528,103 in 2010 to 5,475,367 by 
2060, representing a 27.3 percent fall in overall population. 
 But these statistics do not tell the whole story.  While 
overall population growth is -4.3 per one thousand residents, 
the rural population is declining at a much higher rate: 
-12.14 people per one thousand each year, accelerating 
Bulgaria's transition from a highly rural to a primarily 
urban country. 
 
¶5.  (U)  Bulgaria's ethnic composition is changing as well. 
The NSI predicts the overall population drop will be greatest 
among ethnic Bulgars.  Ethnic Turks and Roma, the two largest 
minority groups, currently compose 9.4 percent and 4.7 
percent of the population, respectively, according to the 
2001 Census (Note: most analysts believe these numbers are 
actually much higher, with Turks and Roma now making up 13 
and 10 percent of the population, respectively).  Higher 
birth rates among these two groups will shift Bulgaria's 
demographic profile and change the economic and political 
landscape. 
 
The Government Response: Not Up to the Task 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶6.  (U)  The current Socialist-led coalition government is 
addressing the demographic crisis with the typical array of 
family incentive programs.  The centerpiece policy is the 
2002 Family Allowances Act, a series of laws granting 
subsidies and leave benefits to boost the birth rate.  For 
example, Bulgaria offers a one-time payment of 2,400 leva 
(1,714 USD) to mothers of twins and 3,600 leva (2,571 USD) 
for triplets.  Student mothers receive a monthly subsidy of 
240 leva (171.40 USD) while attending school and all mothers 
receive a one-time payment of up to forty five days of pay, 
proportionate to their salary at time of maternity leave.  In 
addition, all major political parties have included the 
demographic crisis in their party platforms ahead of July 
national elections and advocate various family incentives. 
Unfortunately, with the impact of the global financial crisis 
 
SOFIA 00000271  002 OF 002 
 
 
finally being felt in this once high-flying Balkan Tiger 
economy, the next government will be hard pressed to keep 
current incentive programs, let alone expand them. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Comment:  The government could do much more to 
stem the population decline without additional financial 
outlays. Net inward migration remains negligible at best. 
Bulgaria grants citizenship and residency status to few 
immigrants each year, most of whom are ethnic Bulgarians from 
Romania, Ukraine and Moldova.  Bulgaria has a weak tradition 
of integrating foreigners and refugees, and many prefer to 
move on to other EU countries with larger immigrant diasporas 
and potentially greater acceptance.  A reformulation of 
immigration rules could increase Bulgaria's population and 
workforce.  Even more important, the Government must turn 
Bulgaria into a place of optimism and opportunity.  Years of 
exposure to endemic corruption, organized crime and 
compromised politicians have left Bulgarians with little 
optimism about future prospects inside the country.  The 
best, brightest, and hardest working vote with their feet by 
moving abroad.  Any government that tackles the country's 
rule of law issues head on has at least a chance of 
attracting Bulgarians back to the land they once left. 
McEldowney