R 010829Z JUN 09
FM AMCONSUL SHANGHAI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7997
INFO AMEMBASSY BEIJING 
AMCONSUL CHENGDU 
AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 
AMCONSUL HONG KONG 
NSC WASHINGTON DC
AMEMBASSY SEOUL 
AMCONSUL SHENYANG 
AIT TAIPEI 1808
AMEMBASSY TOKYO 
AMCONSUL SHANGHAI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SHANGHAI 000245 
 
 
STATE FOR EAP/CM, INR AND DRL 
NSC FOR LOI, KUCHTA-HELBLING 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  6/1/2034 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ECON ELAB SOCI ASEC CH
SUBJECT: TIANANMEN ANNIVERSARY: SHANGHAI FOCUSED ON ECONOMICS, NOT 
POLITICS 
 
REF: BEIJING 1390 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: CHRISTOPHER BEEDE, POL/ECON CHIEF, U.S. CONSULATE 
SHANGHAI, U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) A wide range of Shanghai-based contacts said they expect 
the upcoming 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre 
to pass with little fanfare in the city, as current concerns 
about China's economic downturn outweigh political 
considerations.  Given the focus in Shanghai on the economic 
situation, many observers said they are more concerned about the 
worsening economy's impact on social stability during the second 
half of the year, which may coincide with the 60th anniversary 
of the establishment of the People's Republic of China on 
October 1.  Looking ahead to June 4, political observers stated 
that even if students or activists planned to commemorate the 
anniversary, Shanghai security forces would prevent any 
protests.  Contacts in Shanghai -- although considered to be 
residents of one of China's most economically open and vibrant 
cities -- said they have little interest in "western style 
democracy," and many students say that have no knowledge of the 
1989 democracy movement.  End Summary. 
 
June 4 Still a Big Deal in Shanghai... 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) To many academics and reform-minded political contacts in 
Shanghai, the June 4 massacre on Tiananmen Square remains a 
significant event in China's history, and they see the 20th 
anniversary of the 1989 crackdown as a "big deal."  Pan Rui, a 
professor at the Fudan University Center for American Studies 
who previously taught at Harvard and the University of Maryland, 
summed up Shanghai academics' view of June 4, stating that 
sensitive political anniversaries generally "are not as big a 
deal to people as to government," but in the case of June 4, "it 
definitely is a big deal."  Pan added that Shanghai academics 
"strongly disagree" with the government's approach to June 4 
that blocks information about the event and prevents public 
commemorations of the anniversary, stating that there should be 
opportunities for "free expression" to remember the tragic 
events. 
 
¶3. (C) Bao Jian, a Shanghai-based reporter for the People's 
Daily, told PolOff on April 16 that she has experienced 
first-hand the tight control the government wields over 
information related to the June 4 anniversary.  Bao, an 
open-minded and well-traveled writer, is contributing to a 
series of articles about China's political anniversaries in 
2009, but she characterized 2009 as a "rough year to be a 
journalist," acknowledging that she and her colleagues have 
little say in the final product of their articles.  Zhou Meiyan, 
a researcher at the Shanghai Municipal People's Congress (SMPC), 
added that the lack of public discussion about the June 4 
anniversary is unfortunate, as people in Shanghai "feel deeply" 
about Tiananmen.  Shanghainese are not apathetic about politics, 
she said, but they are "too controlled."  Highlighting a theme 
heard in nearly all of our discussions, however, Zhou lamented 
that university students in Shanghai do not know very much about 
Tiananmen, and they are much more concerned about finding jobs 
than they are about political reform. 
 
...But Concerns About Economic Downturn Are Paramount 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶4. (C) Shanghai's identity is an economic one -- the city's 
leaders and people see Shanghai as China's commercial and 
financial hub, and the municipality is a poster child for Deng 
Xiaoping's reform and opening policy.  In recent months, 
Shanghai's economic situation has become a greater concern, 
particularly after the late April announcement that Shanghai's 
exports fell by 27 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 
2009, and GDP growth slowed to 3.1 percent year-on-year during 
the same period.  For Shanghai, which takes pride in double 
digit GDP growth that lasted for 16 consecutive years until 
dipping below 10 percent in 2008, the economic slowdown has 
taken center stage in policy discussions.  Local government 
organizations have shifted their focus to the economic situation 
regardless of whether commercial issues are normally in their 
purview.  For example, Wang Junwei, Director of the Foreign 
Affairs Office at the Shanghai Committee of the Chinese People's 
Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), told PolOff on April 
29 that the Shanghai CPPCC -- normally considered to be a forum 
for discussion on political and social issues -- recently has 
focused much of its attention on the economic downturn, 
particularly after the Q1 figures were released. 
 
¶5. (C) Fudan University's Pan Rui observed that from Shanghai's 
perspective, the timing of the global financial crisis for the 
moment helps diminish the public's attention on the June 4 
anniversary, as many Shanghainese currently are more concerned 
with keeping or finding a job than they are about politics.  If 
the economic downturn were to continue into the latter part of 
the year, however, Shanghai's economic situation might become 
more of a political problem, Pan said.  Xu Genxing, an economics 
professor at the Shanghai Municipal Communist Party School, said 
on April 28 that he remains concerned about the possibility that 
political events could spark a backlash from those frustrated by 
the economic downturn, but he does not think the Tiananmen 
anniversary will cause such a reaction in Shanghai. 
 
An Economic and Political Nexus in October? 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Many Shanghai commentators, including Pan and Xu, added, 
however, that they are concerned about the worsening economy's 
impact on social stability during the second half of the year, 
which may coincide with the 60th anniversary of the 
establishment of the People's Republic of China (PRC) on October 
¶1.  By October, the economic downturn in the Yangtze River Delta 
(YRD) will have worsened, and it is not clear how unemployed 
students and migrant workers will react at that time to the 
Central Government's National Day celebrations, Xu said.  Dong 
Baohua, a labor expert at the East China University of Political 
Science and Law, said in March that he also did not foresee any 
disturbances to social order during the Tiananmen anniversary; 
however, he remains concerned that October 1 could be a 
political flashpoint in East China because migrant workers, who 
lost jobs during the downturn, will have depleted their savings 
by October if they are still unemployed.  Zhou Meiyan from the 
SMPC agreed with Dong, stating that thousands of university 
graduates also will not have found jobs by that time. 
 
Security Forces Prepared to Prevent Protests 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Looking ahead to June 4, political observers stated that 
even if students or activists planned to commemorate the 
Tiananmen anniversary, Shanghai security forces would prevent 
any protests.  Mao Hengfeng, a local activist who was released 
from prison earlier this year, told PolOff that the Shanghai 
dissident community sees the 20th anniversary of the June 4 
crackdown as a significant event, but there likely will be no 
public commemoration, as Shanghai police are prepared to 
suppress demonstrations before they start.  Mao predicted that 
security forces will "tightly control" the city until mid-June. 
Wang Xiaoyu, a professor at Tongji University and a signatory of 
the 08 Charter, agreed with Mao's assessment, telling PolOff on 
March 10 that the anniversary "remains important" to 
Shanghai-based dissidents but security forces are "prepared to 
put down protests." 
 
¶8. (C) Fudan's Pan Rui and Zhou Meiyan at the SMPC characterized 
security in Shanghai around the June 4 anniversary as 
"tightened" and "on alert."  Both specifically identified 
People's Square (Renmin Guangchang) -- an area that includes 
official municipal government buildings, including City Hall -- 
as the primary area of concern for security forces.  Pan said he 
believes some Shanghai residents would go to public squares or 
parks to commemorate the 20th anniversary of Tiananmen if it 
were not for security forces.  Zhou angrily criticized the 
government's efforts to "lock down" the city to prevent protests. 
 
Tiananmen's Legacy in Shanghai: Democracy's Future? 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶9. (C) Contacts in Shanghai -- although considered to be 
residents of one of China's most economically open and vibrant 
cities -- said they have little interest in "western style 
democracy," and many students say that have no knowledge of the 
1989 democracy movement.  Others added that while they would 
like the Central Government to offer a full accounting of what 
occurred on June 4, they do not expect a public discussion on 
the Tiananmen crackdown for many years.  Zhao Weizhong, Deputy 
Director of the Legislative Affairs Office of Shanghai Municipal 
People's Government, told PolOff on April 2 that Tiananmen's 
legacy in Shanghai is that there are many ways to ascertain 
public opinion other than democracy, and he does not think China 
will become more democratic in the next 20 years.  Social 
stability remains the leadership's priority, and prospects for 
democratic advances in the near-term are limited, said Fudan 
University Center for American Studies Director Shen Dingli. 
The U.S. Government's only option to engage China on sensitive 
political issues such as the 20th anniversary of Tiananmen is to 
recognize the Chinese Government's "lack of courage" and "accept 
China's behavior" with the hope that an open-minded approach 
will "facilitate China's internal debate and advance political 
reform," Shen said on May 14. 
 
¶10. (C) Shen further asserted that the Central Government 
believes acknowledging the Tiananmen anniversary would be a 
"sign of weakness."  The Central Government is only now ready to 
question some aspects of the Cultural Revolution; it is not 
prepared to allow people to question what transpired at 
Tiananmen in 1989, he added.  Shen stated that he hopes the 
Central Government will realize that "when you don't apologize, 
and you don't allow people to remember, you lack a long-range 
vision."  Ren Zhihong, a 30-year-old Major in the People's 
Liberation Army (PLA) who grew up in Tunxi, Anhui Province, 
however, indicated during a discussion in Shanghai on May 14 
that a public acknowledgement of the anniversary is not coming 
anytime soon.  The PLA is not prepared to admit that it made any 
mistakes on June 4, and Ren said he holds a condemnatory view 
towards "hooligans" who, he claimed, "burned and dismembered my 
brothers-in-arms."  At the same time, views within the PLA on 
Tiananmen show signs of moderating, Ren said, as the June 4 
crackdown is no longer "too sensitive" for internal discussion 
between PLA officers.  Ren believes many younger officers might 
have a more "open" view than the older generation, adding that 
he has some sympathy for the students who were killed on June 4. 
 
¶11. (C) In Shanghai, while government officials, academics, and 
military officers debate June 4's legacy, most university 
students still have no understanding of the 1989 democracy 
movement.  Zoe Wei, a university student organizer in Shanghai, 
said in late April that most students know 2009 is an important 
year for political anniversaries, but they do not know the 
details.  They have little opportunity to learn about Tiananmen 
because university internets and intranets are strictly 
monitored, she said, and Shanghai students understand that any 
politically sensitive articles will be deleted immediately. 
Shen Dingli at Fudan University said he hopes the Central 
Government will loosen its internet controls, including for 
information about Tiananmen, but "it will take a long time." 
Other university students we spoke to indicated they have no 
knowledge of the Tiananmen democracy movement, and in Shanghai, 
they feel far removed from the events of 1989, no longer seen as 
the "recent past" but as "history" that does not apply to them. 
Undergraduate professors have pointed out to PolOffs that even 
those students who are aware of what happened on June 4 have 
little interest in the event because they are focused only on 
finding jobs and their own economic futures. 
 
Comment: Shanghai's Economic Focus 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶12. (C) As summer approaches, and university students graduate, 
business rolls along, and migrants search for work, there 
appears to be little attention paid in Shanghai to the 20th 
anniversary of the June 4 crackdown.  The city has its own story 
to tell of events in the summer of 1989, including students who 
were killed or imprisoned for their roles at Tiananmen Square 
and major civil disruptions in Shanghai itself, but there is no 
public acknowledgement of what transpired, and few people seem 
to care.  Shanghai government officials, residents, and students 
are especially focused on the city's economic situation, 
particularly in the midst of a downturn.  Shanghai's apathy 
towards June 4 contrasts with the anniversary's impact in 
Beijing (reftel), but political watchers in Shanghai cite 
"regional differences" for the divergent Shanghai view.  Zhu 
Xueqin, an intellectual, professor, and Dean of the Institute of 
Peace Studies at Shanghai University, summed up Shanghai's 
perspective on the June 4 anniversary during a meeting with 
PolOff in mid-March, stating with great disappointment that 
people in Beijing may care about the 20th anniversary of 
Tiananmen, but in Shanghai, "people only care about economics, 
society, coffee, and beer."  The few dissidents and 
intellectuals in Shanghai who do still care about Tiananmen find 
themselves without a voice, both drowned out by the city's 
single-minded focus on economic and commercial developments and 
suppressed by a local security apparatus that continues to 
monitor and/or detain those who are inclined to speak out. 
 
 
SCHUCHAT