VZCZCXRO0539
OO RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHPW #0133/01 1680441
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 170441Z JUN 09
FM AMCONSUL PESHAWAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8062
INFO RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD IMMEDIATE 4835
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI IMMEDIATE 1946
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE IMMEDIATE 1938
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL IMMEDIATE 1572
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI IMMEDIATE 1205
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON IMMEDIATE 0971
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR 5127

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PESHAWAR 000133 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EAGR ENRG EFIN PGOV PK
SUBJECT: NWFP:  CAN SWAT'S CROPS BE SAVED? 
 
Summary 
- - - - 
 
¶1. (SBU) Pakistan will suffer a 35 percent crop loss in the 
Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) this year, and up to a 70 
percent crop loss in the conflict-hit areas of Malakand 
Division, according to the NWFP provincial government and local 
economists.  These Consulate contacts conclude that it is too 
late to save this year's wheat crop in places like Swat.  But 
they also tell us if the government secures the return of some 
226,000 displaced farmers early in the monsoon season, beginning 
the first week of July, and implements rapid assistance targeted 
at these farmers, the agricultural base in the region can be 
saved.  End summary. 
 
35 Percent Crop Loss in Malakand Division 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2. (SBU) Almost half of the population in the conflict-hit areas 
of Malakand Division of the NWFP depend on agriculture to 
survive and are at risk of losing their crops this year, 
according to NWFP Minister for Agriculture Arbab Mohammad Ayub 
Jan.  Out of a total population of four million in the five 
conflict-hit districts (Swat, Buner, Shangla, Lower Dir, and 
Malakand), 1.9 million belong to farming families and rely at 
least partially on agriculture for their livelihood.  More than 
226,000 farmer families in these districts rely on staple food 
crops like wheat and rice, and largely on subsistence farming. 
(Note:  About 95 percent of all farms in the NWFP are 
subsistence farms of less than 12.5 acres.)  A good portion of 
the rural landless population in these areas also maintain their 
livelihoods by working as farm laborers.  Jan estimates crop 
losses resulting from no harvest at about 35 percent in the 
areas affected by the military operation and predicts that crop 
losses in Swat will likely be as high as 70 percent. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Pakistan's wheat harvest is virtually completed this 
year, according to Jan, and unharvested wheat is likely now 
ruined and cannot be used for any purpose.  With an estimated 70 
percent of Swat's population fleeing the military operation 
there, the remaining 30 percent could only salvage a portion of 
their neighbors' crops due to poor security and constant curfews. 
 
Farming in NWFP 
- - - - - - - - 
 
¶4. (SBU) Due to the great diversity in climate and soils, 
farmers in NWFP grow over 42 crops.  The major ones are wheat, 
barley, maize, sugarcane, tobacco, rape/mustard seed, groundnut, 
pulses, vegetables (onions, potatoes, cabbage) and fruits, 
according to Dr. Nasir Khan, Director of Institute of Management 
Studies (IMS), and former Chairman of the Economics Department 
University of Peshawar.  These major crops account for nearly 90 
percent of the total cultivated area.  Less than five percent of 
farms in the NWFP produce surplus food grains for sale in the 
open market.  The situation for corn is somewhat different, 
however, as it is grown for both on-farm and commercial use. 
Record wheat and rice harvests this year will enable Pakistan to 
shift sufficient quantities of food grains into the NWFP to 
offset crop losses in the military operation zones.  (Note: 
NWFP is a food-deficient province and traditionally relies on 
the Punjab to meet its staple food needs, particularly wheat and 
rice.)  The returning population's ability to offset crop losses 
will be severely challenged, however, as many people have lost 
their jobs, and those subsistence farmers who typically grow 
their own food but who have lost their crops will now be forced 
to enter into a depressed job market. 
 
Commercial Farming in NWFP 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶5. (SBU) In NWFP, fruits and vegetables are largely grown for 
commercial sale, according to Dr. Khan.  Vegetables supplied 
from the troubled five districts to other parts of NWFP and to 
other provinces constitute 37 percent of the total vegetables 
grown in the province, while Swat produces 13 percent of 
Pakistan's vegetables.  The production of orchard crops in 
 
PESHAWAR 00000133  002 OF 002 
 
 
Malakand, and to a lesser extent corn, is also intended for 
commercial sale.  Swat is renowned for its fruit orchards, 
hosting hundreds of commercial-sized orchards producing apples, 
peaches and plums, which play a critical role in sustaining the 
economic livelihood of the rural population.  Sixty percent of 
Pakistan's peaches come from Swat, 35 percent of its pears, and 
almost 20 percent of its apples and plums.  All of these fruits 
are highly perishable.  Secretary General of Sarhad Chamber of 
Agriculture, Abdur Rahim Khan, estimates that $100 million worth 
of fruit in Malakand Division could be lost.  While this year's 
peach crop in Swat has mostly rotted, its plums, pears, onions, 
and tomatoes may be saved if farmers return to the fields in the 
next few weeks. 
 
Corn and Livestock in NWFP 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶6. (SBU) Corn crop losses in the military zones will also have a 
significant negative impact on Pakistan's total corn supply, as 
nearly one-third of the country's three million ton corn crop is 
grown in the NWFP.  As corn is mostly used to feed livestock 
such as cattle, sheep and goats, higher corn prices will have a 
disproportional impact on the poor, as more poor people own 
livestock than own land.  The NWFP Minister for Livestock and 
Dairy Development, Hidayatullah Khan, estimates livestock losses 
at about $110 million, and related losses, such as buildings and 
equipment, at an additional $114 million.  There are no reported 
outbreaks of major livestock diseases yet. 
 
Returning Before Monsoon 
- - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶7. (SBU) Dr. Khan tells us if IDPs cannot return before the 
rains begin in July, it will have a significant negative impact 
on their ability to plant traditional monsoon season crops, such 
as rice, corn and vegetables, and will severely undermine 
longer-term food security in the region.  Monsoon rains begin 
from the first week of July and continue through mid-September. 
The loss of this year's crop will mean no seed for next year's 
crop, as most farmers hold back a portion (5 percent) of the 
current crop for next year's planting.  If the government 
secures the return of the estimated 226,000 displaced farmers 
early in the monsoon season and implements rapid assistance 
targeted at these farmers, the agricultural base in the region 
can be saved.  Special Support Group Lt. Colonel Shahid Waseem 
stated that the army could assist in the transportation and 
marketing of this year's crops. 
 
What Can the U.S. Do? 
- - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶8. (SBU) The U.S. Department of Agriculture is actively 
considering two proposals that could significantly assist 
displaced farmers, along with their livestock, in the Malakand 
Division.  Under one proposal, India would ship 30,000 tons 
(worth USD 30 million) of animal feed to Mardan District of NWFP 
for direct distribution to displaced farmers from Malakand.  One 
side benefit of this proposal would be to accustom the GOP and 
Pakistani public to the transit of Indian goods through the 
primary shipping route that will be used under the recently 
signed Transit and Trade Agreement between India and 
Afghanistan.  Second, USDA proposes that the U.S. provide 
120,000 tons of corn to Pakistan, worth $100 million, which 
Pakistan may monetize to support agricultural reconstruction in 
Malakand Division under the "Food for Progress" program. 
TRACY