VZCZCXRO5446
PP RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHYG
DE RUEHMZ #0128/01 1611432
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 101432Z JUN 09
FM AMCONSUL MUNICH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4799
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEU/EU INTEREST COLLECTIVE
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000128 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV EUN ECON PREL GM
SUBJECT:  EU ELECTIONS IN BAVARIA: CSU RELIEVED, SPD SMASHED, 
INDEPENDENTS DISILLUSIONED 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
REF:  A) Berlin 683 (B) Munich 119 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) The Christian Social Union (CSU) in Bavaria is relieved 
after having handily made the five percent hurdle in the June 7 
European Parliament (EP) elections.  The drawing power of Economics 
Minister zu Guttenberg and the party's uniquely Bavarian election 
message worked.  With its good showing, the CSU mobilized enough 
Bavarian voters to win nearly half of all votes cast in the state 
and more than 7 percent of the federal total, giving the party eight 
seats in the EP.  The Independents (Freie Waehler, FW) drew so 
little support that they failed to enter the EP and likely will 
forego participation in the Bundestag election in September.  The 
Bavarian Social Democratic Party (SPD) beat the national SPD in the 
race to the bottom (REF A).   The EP results could put further 
stress on the Grand Coalition in Berlin as the CSU, with renewed 
self-confidence, takes an increasingly visible role in Berlin and 
looks to gain a stronger hand in formulating the combined CDU/CSU 
campaign platform.  End Summary. 
 
Cheers at the CSU 
----------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) CSU party officials hailed the 48.1 percent result as a 
striking recovery from the most recent 2008 Bavarian Landtag 
election, when the CSU drew just 43.7 percent of the vote.  The CSU 
has comfortably topped the 5 percent national threshold required to 
enter the EP.  With 7.2 percent of the overall German vote, it now 
sends eight  parliamentarians to the EU, compared to the nine it 
sent after the 2004 election (REF B).  The CSU's central campaign 
message was "nationalistic":  that the CSU was the only party that 
is exclusively Bavarian and a vote for any other party could lead to 
a loss of a "truly Bavarian" voice in the EP. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Despite the local holiday and no other elections on the 
ballot, voter turnout in Bavaria bucked the national downward trend 
and increased from 39 to 42 percent.  This was the first real test 
for CSU party chairman and Bavarian Minister President Horst 
Seehofer, who has worked hard to rejuvenate the party.  The 
popularity of the relatively new Economics Minister Karl-Theodor zu 
Guttenberg (the "zu Guttenberg factor") certainly helped.  Zu 
Guttenberg made headlines for his skeptical take on the Opel rescue 
package, and the CSU put his face on campaign posters thereafter. 
Moreover, a recent national poll revealed that 61 percent of German 
voters shared his skeptical view with regard to state subsidies for 
the bankrupt retail giant Arcandor. 
 
The SPD: Keyless and Clueless 
----------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) There is no bottom yet to the fall of the Bavarian SPD. 
Mirroring its national performance, it achieved its worst post-war 
result ever with 12.9 percent of the Bavarian vote, just 1.4 percent 
more than the Greens.  The Bavarian SPD proved how badly organized 
it is at the final  pre-election rally on June 5, where fewer than 
20 spectators endured delay and then waited over thirty minutes for 
the party's lead candidate, Wolfgang Kreissl-Doerfler, to stop 
talking on his cell phone with his back turned to the audience. 
Likewise, at the June 8 post-election press conference, journalists 
were squeezed into a tiny room since the SPD had lost the keys to 
the larger conference room where they normally hold such events. 
 
Independents Fail and Fight in Public 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Meanwhile, the Freie Waehler (Independents) failed to 
repeat their breakthrough performance of 2008, when they won over 10 
percent of the vote in the Bavarian state election.  This time, with 
6.7 percent in Bavaria and merely 1.7 percent nationally, the FW 
fell far short of the votes needed to enter the EP.  Consequently, 
at a press conference in Munich on June 8, both national chairman 
Armin Grein and Bavarian chairman Hubert Aiwanger declared they 
expected the group to forgo the federal elections in September, 
noting that the FW would take a formal decision at a June 20 board 
meeting.  Just at this point in the press conference,  Gabriele 
Pauli breezed in late, where she repeated her election night 
proclamation that she intended to form a party of her own.  Pauli, 
the top Freie Waehler candidate for the EU election, notorious 
Bavarian politician, and FW Landtag deputy, apparently had not 
informed Aiwanger and Grein in advance of her plan, as they were 
visibly "not amused" at her gambit that risks splitting the Freie 
Waehler. 
 
 
MUNICH 00000128  002 OF 002 
 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) One thing is certain.  The more confident CSU will now 
insist on having more of a say in the joint CDU/CSU campaign 
platform, a development which will make the CSU more of an equal 
partner, and a more difficult one at that, for Chancellor Merkel. 
It is also clear that Economics Minister zu Guttenberg will continue 
to take a prominent role as the party moves into the national 
election.  Called a "man to watch" by the Financial Times, zu 
Guttenberg has become the de facto leader of the CDU's/CSU's 
free-market, low-tax, pro-business faction.  His stance of economic 
orthodoxy has boosted his popularity, and his standing up to 
Chancellor Merkel on the Opel rescue played well in Bavaria and 
nationally.   In contrast to zu Guttenberg, CSU Chairman Horst 
Seehofer has spoken in favor of saving retail companies such as 
Arcandor and Schaeffler because of the many people they employ in 
Bavaria, although he says he completely supports zu Guttenberg and 
denies they disagree substantively on the issue.  Finally, the EP 
election outcome seems to indicate that Bavarians are still 
comfortable with the fact that the CSU has had to govern in a 
coalition with the Free Democratic Party since the 2008 state 
election.  In fact, in the EU election, the FDP was able to more 
than double its 2004 EP election showing from 4.2 to 9 percent.  End 
comment. 
 
¶7.  (U)  Consulate General Munich coordinated this cable with 
Embassy Berlin. 
 
NELSON