VZCZCXRO3885
RR RUEHAST RUEHBI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHNEH RUEHPW
DE RUEHCI #0164/01 1701038
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 191038Z JUN 09
FM AMCONSUL KOLKATA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2394
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDHP/DIA DHP-1 WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 2942

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KOLKATA 000164 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
PASS TO SCA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PTER PSEC IN
SUBJECT: THE BATTLE FOR BENGAL 
 
REF: A. Kolkata 162 
     ¶B. KOLKATA 144 
     ¶C. KOLKATA 78 
 
KOLKATA 00000164  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: West Bengal's Communist Party of 
India-Marxist (CPI-M) dominated Left Front is still reeling from 
its poor performance in the Lok Sabha polls (see Reftels).  The 
perfect storm of issues appears to have worked against the Left 
Front.  Some CPI-M leaders believe the party lost support when 
it withdrew support from the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) 
over the U.S.-India nuclear deal.  Other party leaders blame 
CPI-M's attempt to form a Third Front coalition for its defeat. 
Others point to a leadership crisis and infighting within CPI-M, 
the successful merger of Congress and All India Trinamul 
Congress (AITC) votes, and CPI-M's growing unpopularity among 
Muslim and rural populations.  With state assembly elections in 
2011, the Lok Sabha election was just the opening volley in the 
battle for Bengal, with AITC the clear victor in this round. 
Over the next two years, this conflict will most likely be 
fraught with political agitations sometimes leading to violence, 
which does not bode well for West Bengal's economic growth 
prospects.   End summary. 
¶2.  (U) In this year's parliamentary elections, West Bengal's 
CPI-M dominated Left Front won only 15 out of 42 Lok Sabha 
seats, a record loss for a coalition that has ruled the state 
for over 30 years and had exerted tight political control over 
the state during this time.  The Indian National Congress (INC), 
the AITC and the Socialist Unity Center of India (SUCI) together 
captured an unexpected 26 seats, leaving one seat for the 
Bharatiya Janata Party.  According to Election Commission 
records, the Left won 43 percent of the total votes, down from 
49 percent in the 2006 state assembly polls (Reftel B). 
Bengal CPI-M Leaders Blame the Central Party 
¶3.  (SBU) Most Bengali CPI-M contacts blame the central 
committee's national policies for the defeat.  Shishir Bajoria, 
known as the millionaire Marxist and a close advisor to party 
leaders, told ConGen that withdrawal from the UPA and formation 
of a Third Front was a mistake.  He speculated that voters were 
forced to choose between a stable central government led by INC 
or instability with a patchwork ruling coalition if they opted 
for regional parties.  Bajoria noted that the Left Front did 
particularly poorly among new voters, acknowledging that the 
Left's anti-American campaigning may have backfired with young 
voters.  Defeated CPI-M MP Prashanta Pradhan also blamed the 
central party's focus on the nuclear deal, telling the press 
that the deal was extremely complex and that the poor and the 
farmers never understood why the party wanted to topple the 
government.  Defeated CPI-M MP Mohammad Salim told PolFSN that a 
combination of factors worked against the Left in the Lok Sabha 
polls, including national issues and unpopular local policies. 
Has the Bengal CPI-M Lost Its Base? 
¶4.  (SBU) Contacts in political parties, the media and 
think-tank organizations are unanimous in the opinion that the 
2007-2008 Nandigram and Singur resistance movements against the 
GOWB's acquisition of agricultural land for industry turned the 
rural population against the CPI-M (Reftel C).  West Bengal's 
Land and Land Reforms Minister Abdur Rezzak Mollah told the 
press that the land acquisition issue was "like a disease which 
starts corroding the body very fast and destroys immunity."  He 
complained that CPI-M leadership did not listen when he warned 
against land acquisition, noting that land is the most important 
thing to farmers -- they value it more than their sons and 
daughters.  He argued that the party should not acquire fertile 
land, only dry barren land. 
¶5.  (SBU) A Left-watcher from Anandabazar Patrika (ABP) daily 
observed that most CPI-M leaders are from wealthy, 
well-connected families and joined the party as students.  Most 
have no connection to the rural or working classes.  Mollah 
complained that CPI-M has appointed local party leaders who do 
not represent the interests of the farmers, but instead act "as 
the lords of their areas."  In contrast, analysts emphasize that 
AITC leader Mamata Banerjee effectively won over the poor with 
her simple image and election slogans like "Ma Mati Manush" 
(Note: the slogan "the Mother, the Land, the People" comes from 
a popular folk play well known in rural communities.  End note.) 
 According to AITC contacts, the party focused on winning over 
the rural voters, establishing a special cell within the party 
to mobilize lower caste and minority populations.  AITC's 
election manifesto highlighted pro-farmer and pro-poor policies, 
opposing Foreign Direct Investment, Special Economic Zones and 
the acquisition of fertile land for industry.  Residents in 
rural and Muslim-dominated Murshidabad district, in which INC 
now has a solid majority of votes, credited Finance Minister 
Pranab Mukherjee with extensive road repairs completed just 
before the elections.  The head of a large madrassa noted that 
Mukherjee had provided funds for the school from his own pocket, 
contrasting this to the lack of any support from the GOWB. 
Mainstream Media Turns Against CPI-M 
 
KOLKATA 00000164  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Bajoria complained to ConGen that the news media was 
blatantly anti-CPI-M in this election campaign.  ABP, the most 
widely read Bengali newspaper in the state and once a strong 
supporter of Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee's economic 
reforms, turned against the CPI-M after AITC and INC forged 
their political alliance.  Sumit Das Gupta (protect), editor of 
the Metro section of the Telegraph, ABP's English newspaper, 
told ConGen that ABP's owner, Aveek Sarkar, was actively engaged 
in setting the tone of ABP's reporting during the elections and 
the reporting was intentionally anti-CPI-M.  ABP's popular news 
channel Star Ananda effectively telecast anti-Left movements in 
Nandigram and Singur along with projecting Mamata Banerjee's 
formidable anti-Left image.  Rathikanta Basu, owner of Tara TV, 
told ConGen that he began the anti-CPI-M shift by being the 
first to provide live telecasts of events in Nandigram in 2008. 
He unabashedly acknowledged that his goal is to remove CPI-M 
from power and that he is using his media company to assist. 
Analyst Sabyasachi B. Roychaudhuri noted that, in contrast, 
CPI-M channels like Chabbis Ghanta and Akaash Bangla failed to 
impress viewers with their interpretations of the opposition's 
movements. 
And so the Battle Continues 
¶7.  (SBU) Immediately after election results, press reported 
multiple incidents of violence between CPI-M and AITC workers. 
According media reports, the CPI-M stronghold of Khejuri village 
in Nandigram area fell to violent and jubilant AITC workers 
immediately after election results were announced.  Villagers 
told journalists they were intimidated by the option to either 
join AITC or vacate the area.   AITC workers, under directions 
from new AITC MP Suvendhu Adhikary, raided CPI-M premises and 
recovered hoarded arms which were handed over to the police. 
Maoist violence in Lalgarh has intensified and may be 
politically motivated (Reftel A).  The agitation for a separate 
Gorkhaland in North Bengal also intensified and a Gorkha 
Janamukti Morcha leader told PolFSN that they are demanding 
local panchayat elections at village, district and 
sub-divisional level.  (Note: Darjeeling is the only district in 
West Bengal that did not had panchayat elections in 2008). 
¶8.  (SBU) The next round of elections are 19 municipal elections 
in several different state districts.  Several state assembly 
seats are vacant with bi-elections due by the end of 2009.  In 
Spring 2010, elections will be held for the Kolkata Municipal 
Corporation, West Bengal's largest municipal body.  AITC MP 
Somen Mitra expressed apprehension that these small elections 
will spark even more political violence which could degenerate 
over time into progressive chaos over the next few years. 
Murshidibad District Magistrate told ConGen that violent clashes 
among a highly politically aware rural population are now a 
daily occurrence and he expects it to continue until assembly 
elections. 
Comment 
¶9.  (SBU) There is only one issue now in West Bengal - the 
battle for control of the state.  Every other issue - Maoist 
violence, industrialization, relief for cyclone victims, 
Gorkhaland agitation -- will be viewed by politicians, the news 
media and the general population through the lens of state 
assembly elections.  As Railways Minister, Banerjee will focus 
on initiatives that improve AITC's image in West Bengal and will 
most likely oppose any policies that could be viewed as 
anti-farmer.  Despite her public announcement on June 17 that 
she does not support violence, it will be difficult for her to 
rein in the culture of violence that has prevailed in West 
Bengal for the past three decades. 
¶10.  (SBU) The CPI-M is in crisis internally, unable to fathom 
its future policies and course of action.  At the government 
level too, decisiveness is not evident.  The party can only wait 
to see how Banerjee handles the dichotomy of her supporters 
indulging in violence and her official position of 
responsibility at a national level.  For the 2011 state assembly 
elections, both the Left and the opposition have a fair chance 
of success.  If AITC fails to prove itself as a party with 
vision and discipline after winning the national polls, voters 
may turn to the devil they know from three decades of 
heavy-handed rule - the Left.  Uncertainty and inaction by a 
government besieged by protests and violence in several areas 
may put development on the back-burner for the time being.  End 
comment. 
PAYNE