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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 HYDERABAD 000056 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM KDEM IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: UNDERSTANDING ANDHRA PRADESH: DEFYING 
PUNDITS AND EXIT POLLS 
 
HYDERABAD 00000056  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY: With voter turnout in Andhra Pradesh (AP) 
significantly higher than the national average, the Congress 
party defied the exit polls to increase its huge margin in the 
Lok Sabha delegation from the state and win a simple majority in 
the state assembly.  The emergence of two new parties and a new 
matrix of caste politics appear to be decisive factors in this 
election.  There is some indication that voters split their 
vote, casting their ballot for one party in the parliamentary 
contest and for a different party in the state assembly 
election.  This voting pattern represents a change in voter 
behavior and bodes watching in the future to see whether it is a 
one off or a trend.  END SUMMARY. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Congress Victorious: A Surprising Reprise 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  No political analyst expected either a voter turnout of 72 
percent (15 percent higher than the national average) or the 
Congress party to reprise its remarkable victory of 2004 - when 
it upset the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) to capture both the state 
government and 29 Lok Sabha seats, the largest Congress 
contingent of MPs from any state.  Still Congress Chief Minister 
(CM) Y S Rajasekhara Reddy (YSR) never wavered from his 
prediction that in the 2009 concurrent national and state 
elections his party would increase its national tally to 34 Lok 
Sabha seats and that he would remain CM after Congress 
candidates won 230 of the 295 seats in the Legislative Assembly. 
 After the votes were counted on May 16, it became obvious that 
YSR knew the pulse of the people better than any analyst. 
Overcoming the traditional anti-incumbency factor, he once again 
`delivered Andhra Pradesh on a platter.'  At the national level 
the electorate chose Congress candidates for 33 of the state's 
42 Lok Sabha seats.  The remaining seats were split amongst 4 
other parties: TDP - 6, Telangana Rashtra Samathi (TRS) - 2, and 
the All India Majlis-Ittehadul-Muslimeen (MIM) - 1. 
 
¶3.  At the state level, 156 out of 294 Congress candidates won 
in their district, which represents a loss of 28 seats for the 
party.  Still, this simple majority gives the Congress the 
opportunity to form a state government without the necessity of 
encumbering alliances.  Even though the TDP doubled its seat 
tally from 46 to 93 Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLA), 
its `Grand Alliance' partners fared poorly.  The TRS won a mere 
10 of the 44 seats it contested (down from 26 in 2004).  [NOTE: 
Political observers also claim that the poor showing of the TRS 
was the final blow to the Telangana-separatist movement. END 
NOTE] The media widely described the performance of other 
members as `dismal' - the CPI won four seats and the CPI(M) won 
only a single one versus their previous tallies of six and nine 
respectively.  The new Praja Rajyam party also failed to meet 
the initially high expectations for the party winning a mere 18 
races statewide.  Other parties to win seats in the Assembly 
include, BJP - 2, Lok Satta - 1, Independents - 7. 
 
------------------------- 
Caste in the Central Role 
------------------------- 
 
¶4.  Over the past 50 years, politics in AP has traditionally 
revolved around two dominant rival castes/party nexuses - the 
Reddy/Congress and Kamma/TDP combines.  However, political 
analysts observed that caste polarization became even more acute 
in this election as a third grouping - an alignment of the Kapu 
and Other Backward Class (OBC) communities - emerged in support 
of Chiranjeevi's PRP.  Other parties are also closely affiliated 
with caste groups: the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) is 
closely identified with Velama caste; and both Communist parties 
have a close affinity with the Kamma community who dominated the 
parties prior to the birth of the TDP. 
 
¶5.  The Reddy community is politically dominant in 15 of the 
state's 23 districts, including Kurnool, Anantapur and Chittoor 
in the Rayalaseema region, Nalgonda, Medak, Warangal, 
Mahbubnagar, Rangareddy, Nizamabad, Karimnagar and Adilabad in 
the Telangana region, and Nellore, Guntur and Prakasam in 
 
HYDERABAD 00000056  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
Coastal Andhra.  Academic and media interlocutors point out that 
from the perspective of caste the emergence of the ideological 
diverse pre-poll `Grand Alliance' - consisting of the TDP, TRS, 
CPI, and CPI(M) - made electoral sense. 
 
¶6.  Wherever the PRP's attempt to consolidate the Kapu and OBC 
vote banks behind a candidate was successful, the reported voter 
turnout increased.  This initiative was so vital to the new 
party that Chiranjeevi boasted to the CDA about the PRP's 
decision to put forward 104 OBC nominees for State Assembly 
seats, almost twice that nominated by rival parties.  He claimed 
that the PRP had upped the ante and the results of this election 
would force both the Congress and the TDP to also reserve at 
least 100 seats for OBC candidates in future elections. 
 
¶7.  Political analysts also note that the emergence of the PRP 
altered the standard vote bank equations.  Chiranjeevi saw this 
as the great strength of his party and as the primary reason why 
all other parties would reach out to him after the vote is 
counted.  Just days before the votes were counted, AP Chief 
Secretary P. Ramakanth Reddy quipped that `it's not clear who is 
cutting into whose vote bank.  Everyone draws solace from that 
and predicts that a high turnout is good for them.' 
 
------------------------------------- 
Predictions of a Hung Assembly Undone 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  Prior to the vote count each main party continued to 
publicly proclaim that they would win an outright majority of 
seats in the State Legislative Assembly and form the next 
government.  Still, most political analysts believed, and exit 
polls predicted, that a hung assembly would be the most likely 
outcome with both Congress and the TDP-led `Grand Alliance' 
bagging from 130-140 seats each and the PRP winning 30-40 
contests.  AP Speaker Suresh Reddy remarked that AP had not seen 
a three-way race since the 1970's and that this `triangular 
contest defied predictions.'  TDP leader Naidu was more 
circumspect noting that after the votes are counted `it may 
still be possible that Congress doesn't have a majority.' 
 
¶9.  Naidu's hint of pessimism also foreshadowed events at the 
national level.  The `Grand Alliance' fractured in its support 
for the Left-led Third Front even before the vote count.  TRS 
leader K. Chandrashekhar Rao (KCR) publicly called the Third 
Front a `fiction' and declared that he would support the BJP-led 
National Democratic Alliance (NDA) at the center in his quest to 
achieve statehood for the Telangana region.  Naidu informed the 
CDA that the Left parties reacted strongly to the TRS's 
realignment and suggested that the `Grand Alliance' drop the TRS 
at the state level, but he convinced them to temper their 
reaction until after the vote count as party's support could be 
crucial to forming a majority there.  Naidu wasn't concerned 
about the TRS move, since KCR's decision to support the NDA at 
the center precluded the possibility that he would support 
Congress at the state level. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
The Votes Are Counted: Chiranjeevi Plays the Spoiler 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶10.  Once the votes were counted it became clear that the 
YSR-led Congress benefited from the emergence of the PRP.  At a 
post-election party meeting, Naidu claimed that the Congress had 
not won the election, but that new parties had cost the `Grand 
Alliance' crucial anti-Congress votes.  He said that split in 
the oppositions ranks, which the `Grand Alliance' had tried to 
overcome, gave the Congress an undisputed victory even though it 
had received the smallest percentage of votes of any previous 
state government. 
 
¶11.  Throughout the state, the Congress vote bank remained 
intact while the Telugu Desam lost heavily to the PRP.  Even 
though PRP candidates lost deposits in 22 out of 40 Lok Sabha 
seats contested, in many key Coastal Andhra constituencies they 
polled more than 30,000 votes or one third of potential TDP 
 
HYDERABAD 00000056  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
voters.  A prime example was the Nellore LS constituency where 
the Congress candidate defeated the TDP candidate by 54,994 
votes, while the PRP candidate took third polling more than 
138,000 votes.  In other constituencies Congress candidates won 
by thin margins suggesting that the PRP tilted the results 
(Mummidivaram - 1,851, Bapatla - 1,368, Serlingampalliy - 1,330, 
Rajahumundry City - 1,304, Bodhan - 1,275, Alampur - 1,194, 
Kollapur - 1,194, Jaggampet - 789, Vijayawada Central - 738, 
Paderu - 587, Payakaraopet - 656, Nellimarla - 597, Pinapaka - 
349, Tiruvur - 265, and Penamalur - 153).  Many pundits are 
proclaiming the end of the party since it did not live up to 
initial expectations and only won 17 MLA contests and not a 
single seat in the Lok Sabha.  Still, Chiranjeevi plans to move 
ahead and look to the next election.  Importantly, with almost 
15 percent of the vote across the state, Chiranjeevi's party 
qualifies for recognition and can retain its symbol. 
 
¶12.  At the state level, the Praja Rajyam delivered a death blow 
to the `Grand Alliance.'  Even though the TDP doubled its seat 
tally from 46 to 93 MLAs, its TRS won a mere 10 of the 44 seats 
it contested (down from 26 in 2004).  [NOTE: Political observers 
also claim that the poor showing of the TRS was the final blow 
to the Telangana-separatist movement. END NOTE] The media widely 
described the performance other coalition members as `dismal' - 
the CPI won four seats and the CPI(M) won only a single one 
versus their previous tallies of six and nine respectively. 
 
--------------------------------- -------------------------- 
The Votes Are Counted: Two Players Emerge From the Sidelines 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
¶13.  Even as the BJP candidates lost 267 of 269 Legislative 
Assembly contests and dashed all hope of becoming a `decisive 
force' in the state, two smaller parties showed they could 
significantly impact the final outcome.  The MIM not only 
retained its hereditary Parliamentary seat from Hyderabad, but 
it emerged as an important `unofficial' Congress ally.  Running 
in a secure constituency - Asaduddin Owaisi claimed his seat by 
securing 110,768 more votes than TDP candidate and Siasat 
Editor, Zahid Ali Khan - allowed the MIM candidate to campaign 
`in favor of the Congress' in several Muslim-populated towns in 
Telangana and Coastal Andhra.  Political analysts widely credit 
Owaisi with moving Muslim votes to the Congress en masse.  This 
countered the TDP's strategy of distancing the party from prior 
alliance with the BJP, which Naidu believed was a key factor in 
the 2004 Congress victory. 
 
¶14.  The Lok Satta Party - another new entrant formed by 
Jayaprakash Narayan, a retired IAS officer turned social and 
political activist - also had an impressive first showing. 
Though the party was only victorious in one state Assembly race, 
it was able to garner significant vote share (over 10 percent) 
in urban constituencies with its advocacy for clean politics and 
promises to usher in a new political culture.  This favored 
Congress by cutting into the urban anti-incumbency vote. 
Importantly, Lok Satta candidates polled more votes than the BJP 
in all the five Hyderabad constituencies.  Elsewhere in the 
state almost five percent of rural voters voted for the party 
and political analysts believe it now has a sufficient base of 
support to build a statewide organization. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
The Votes Are Counted: Splitting Tickets 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶15.  One question that has caught the attention of media is the 
disparity between the Congress party's continued dominance in 
Lok Sabha elections and the simple (but lesser) majority it won 
in the state.  While almost 39 percent of voters cast ballots 
for the Congress candidate in parliamentary elections, the 
TDP-led coalition only combined for 34 percent and PRP polled 
more than 15 percent.  [NOTE: The BJP only took 4 percent of the 
vote and the BSP less than one percent. END NOTE] However, in 
the Assembly polls, Congress only received 36 percent, the TDP 
26 percent, TRS 5 percent, CPI(M) 2 percent, and the CPI 1 
percent. 
 
HYDERABAD 00000056  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
 
¶16.  Citing the poll numbers most media credited the splintering 
of the anti-Congress vote between the `Grand Alliance' and the 
PRP as the primary factor.  However, an academic interlocutor 
noted that the mismatch could be due to the fact that only the 
Congress had a national presence and `agenda' in this concurrent 
election.  For example, in the Visakhapatnam East constituency, 
the TDP Assembly candidate polled 44,233 votes, but the TDP Lok 
Sabha candidate only garnered 34,367 votes.  Given this 
interpretation, the three percent gap between the Congress 
party's parliamentary and Assembly results indicate that some 
voters split their ballot and voted for continuity at the Center 
even as they based their Assembly votes on local issues.  The 
Hindu wrote (May 18, 2009) that, `the fact that 14 [state] 
ministers have tasted defeat sends a strong message that the 
voters, intelligent as they are, preferred a national party but 
are not happy with its functioning at the state.' 
 
--------------------- 
All Support the 1-2-3 
--------------------- 
 
¶17.  Prior to the vote counting both Naidu and Chiranjeevi 
indicated general, but necessarily unqualified, support for the 
U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement.  Chiranjeevi 
told the CDA that prior to the confidence vote last July, he was 
approached about his position by some of the sitting MP's who 
later joined the PRP.  He told them he had `no objection' to the 
agreement, but that they should cast their votes prior to 
leaving their parties to join the PRP.  Naidu predicted that 
there would be no change in foreign policy no matter which 
coalition formed the central government.  While he didn't 
directly voice either reservation or support for the agreement, 
he did note that the Left parties had a visceral hatred for the 
previous U.S. administration and then changed tracks to talk 
about how even they had had to `fall in line' on issues that 
promoted development and created wealth that could later be 
distributed to their constituents. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
Local Politics Carries the Day: Except at the Center 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶18.  COMMENT: The strong showing by two new parties may indicate 
that the trend towards coalition governments that include small 
regional (or in this case sub-regional) parties has started to 
make its way to the state assembly level.  Another trend to 
emerge is voters splitting their ballot between different 
parties in national and state contests.  No matter how these 
factors play out in future elections, one constant will remain - 
local issues, especially  development and delivery of social 
welfare programs, will continue to be the focus of the 
electorate and, therefore, of the politicians and their promises 
at election time.  As if on cue, immediately after the results 
were final Congress CM YSR Reddy announced that he would assign 
top priority for five ongoing irrigation projects in the state. 
END COMMENT. 
KEUR