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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000448 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/03/2019 
TAGS: AJ IR PGOV PREL RU TR
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN:  PRESIDENT'S FOREIGN POLICY ADVISOR 
DISCUSSES REGIONAL ISSUES AND NABUCCO 
 
REF: A. REF A: BAKU 392 
     ¶B. REF B: BAKU 439 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse, for reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  Senior Congressional Staff Members Markovsky 
and Katz met with the Head of the Foreign Relations Division 
Novruz Mammadov May 27 and 29 to discuss GOAJ relations with 
its neighbors and the U.S.  Mammadov's comments focused on 
Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) and the seven occupied districts. 
Although Azerbaijan would like the immediate return of all 
seven occupied districts, he said, the GOAJ would consider it 
a good initial step if five of the seven were returned. 
Mammadov also stated that, although relations have been 
mended, the GOAJ is ready to sacrifice its relationship with 
Turkey if Turkey opens its borders with Armenia without a 
resolution on NK.  Mammadov said the Iranian Ambassador to 
Baku warned him of "very, very grave consequences" if the 
GOAJ hosts the Israeli president in July.  He added that 
Russia has been applying pressure to Azerbaijan for its 
ongoing commitment to the Nabucco pipeline.  END SUMMARY 
 
MAMMADOV: ARMENIA WILL USE DELAY TACTICS IN ST PETERSBURG 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶2. (C) Head of the President's Foreign Relations Division 
Novruz Mammadov met twice with Congerssional Staff 
Delegation, Alan Markovsky and Jonathan Katz, to discuss 
Azerbaijani relations with the U.S., Armenia and Turkey. 
Mammadov focused on Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) and said he 
expected that Armenia will use delaying tactics in St. 
Petersburg, where presidents Aliyev and Sargsyan are 
scheduled to meet June 4.  Mammadov said that although 
Azerbaijan would prefer Armenia to release all seven occupied 
territories, the GOAJ would accept an initial first step of 
immediate withdrawal from five of the seven territories.  The 
return of all seven territories would be impossible and 
unrealistic for now, Mammadov said.  Armenia emerged from the 
May 7 Aliyev-Sargsyan meeting in Prague without making 
compromises, yet without criticism for non-constructive 
behavior, he noted.  Combined with a lack of western 
pressure, Armenia now has no incentive to negotiate and will 
pursue hardline tactics.  Mammadov asserted that these 
results from Prague underscored that the Minsk Group process 
is flawed. 
 
¶3. (C) (COMMENT: Mammadov did not repeat the public charges 
he made recently against Minsk Group Co-Chair Matthew Bryza, 
but he reasserted the GOAJ's displeasure at the statement the 
co-chairs released immediately following the meeting between 
Presidents Aliyev and Sargsyan.  Mammadov said the GOAJ was 
not alerted to the large numbers of media that would be at 
the post-meeting, nor was President Aliyev told that the 
co-chairs would release a statement following the meeting. 
The GOAJ considered the statement to be too deferential to 
Armenia and contributed to Armenia's more positive image 
going forward.  END COMMENT) 
 
ARMENIA WANTS TO DIVIDE U.S. FROM TURKEY AND AZERBAIJAN 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶4. (C) Mammadov said GOAJ relations with Turkey have been 
reinforced since the May 13-14 visit of Turkish Prime 
Minister Erdogan (REF A).  He added, however, that NK is so 
important to the GOAJ that Azerbaijan would sacrifice all 
relations with Turkey if Turkey were to open the border to 
Armenia without an NK resolution.  Returning to Armenian 
foreign policy intentions, Mammadov said he believed 
Armenia's policy regarding "genocide" is designed to drive a 
wedge between the U.S. and Turkey, and Armenian policy on NK 
is to place the U.S. in opposition to the GOAJ. 
 
RUSSIA AND IRAN APPLYING PRESSURE TO GOAJ 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Mammadov said the GOAJ has received a good deal of 
pressure from Iran regarding the GOAJ's invitation to host 
the Israeli President in July.  He said the Iranian 
Ambassador had met him the day before and promised "very, 
very grave consequences" if Azerbaijan followed through with 
its plans for the visit, as it would be the only Muslim 
country to receive the Israeli president.  (COMMENT:  Foreign 
Minister Elmar Mammadyarov in a separate meeting with Staff 
Delegation later that day confirmed that the GOAJ intends to 
move forward as planned and said it will signal that Iran 
cannot push the GOAJ around.  See REF B.  END COMMENT) 
 
BAKU 00000448  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶6. (C) Regarding Russia, Mammadov said Russia promised the 
GOAJ "serious consequences" for its participation in the 
Eastern Partnership.  Russia also continues to privately 
voice its concern to GOAJ officials for their support of the 
Nabucco natural gas project, which cuts out Russia. 
 
NABUCCO NOT YET A LOST OPPORTUNITY 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Turning his attention to Nabucco, Mammadov said there 
is still time "to save" the project.  He said the lack of 
progress over the last two years on Nabucco is only 
compounded by today's global economic crisis and that because 
companies do not have money, western governments should renew 
their interest and fund the pipeline project.  Mammadov also 
said the GOAJ is prepared to contribute 10-15 bcm the first 
year of Nabucco's operations and believes Turkmenistan will 
follow Azerbaijan's lead. 
 
Comment: As Always, Focus on Armenia 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶8.  (C) It is not surprising that Mammadov chose to use his 
time with the Staffdel to focus on Armenia and 
Nagorno-Karabakh.  At this point in time -- given 
Turkish-Armenian rapprochement and the presidents meetings in 
Prague and St. Petersburg, and following the May 13-14 PM 
Erdogan visit and repeated stops in Baku by Turkey's new 
Foreign Minister -- the issues are particularly sensitive for 
the Azerbaijanis.  Mammadov continues to complain about the 
co-chairs' post-Prague press statement, and is repeating the 
call for the immediate return of the five territories (rather 
than endorsing the 3 1 approach of the Minsk Group). 
Azerbaijan clearly is trying to set the stage for St. 
Petersburg, with a finger pointing toward Yerevan in case the 
talks there do not succeed.  End Comment 
DERSE