VZCZCXRO7142
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHDS #1276/01 1520844
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 010844Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4952
INFO RUEPADJ/CJTF HOA PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEWMFD/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP  PRIORITY
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 001276 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EEB/IFD/OMA - JWINKLER AND EEB/CBA - DWINSTEAD 
DEPARTMENT PASS TO U.S. PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE - AMY COTTON 
USTR FOR PATRICK COLEMAN, CECILIA KLEIN, AND BARBARA GRYNIEWWICZ 
DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC FOR ITA BECKY ERKUL 
DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC FOR REBECCA KLEIN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: BEXP ECON EFIN ETRD EINV EAGR ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS MAY 2009 
 
REF:  ADDIS ABABA 780 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00001276  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED; NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  This cable provides a summary of recent economic 
highlights in Ethiopia, including: 1) decreasing inflation rates; 2) 
expected depreciation of the Birr; 3) declining export performance; 
and 4) factory stoppages due to increasing power supply rationing. 
Annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation declined to 23.3 percent 
in April 2009 in contrast to a record high of 64.2 percent in July 
¶2008.  Although prices continue to rise, the Government of Ethiopia 
(GoE) projects the rate of inflation to fall into single digits by 
June 2009.  As inflation is falling, many Ethiopia-watchers expect 
Ethiopia's central bank to further devalue the Birr by about 15 
percent in coming months.  There is some hope that the Birr 
devaluation will boost exports, which have fallen well short of both 
targets and last year's performance during the past nine months. 
Finally, due to the drought-induced chronic shortage of power 
supply, the GoE required the two largest cement factories to halt 
production for at least two months and rolling blackouts have been 
extended to export factories, which are now forced to spend eight 
days per month without power.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Decreasing Inflation Rates 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) According to Ethiopia's Central Statistics Agency, annual 
headline inflation eased to 23.3 percent in April 2009 from a record 
high of 64.2 percent in July 2008.  This decrease was mainly a 
result of price declines of imports such as fuel, fertilizer, and 
construction materials (particularly steel).  Although food and 
cereals prices continue to increase, this increase is less than the 
corresponding period last year and the impacts of the largely-failed 
2009 Belg season have not yet impacted market prices.  As such, food 
and cereals inflation rates decreased to 25.4 and 40.0 percent in 
April 2009, respectively, down from record highs of 91.8 and 171.9 
percent in July 2008.  Food items account for over 57 percent of the 
weight in the consumer price index, indicating that inflation trends 
are closely tied to the seasonality of cereal production. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The GoE and the local International Monetary Fund 
representative project inflation to be in the single digits by June. 
 (Note: This target may be achieved, despite the continued increase 
in prices, as a result of the sharp spike in summer 2008 prices 
combined with the markedly lower world fuel prices this year. End 
Note.)  The Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI), a think 
tank of economic policy led by the Chief Economic Advisor to Prime 
Minister Meles Zenawi, projected headline inflation to be 3.8 
percent in June and -3.0 percent in July 2009 in its confidential 
April inflation report.  The GoE is currently pursuing a strategy to 
counter inflation and ease the balance of payments crisis.  In 
October 2008, the GoE removed the fuel price subsidy and adjusted 
regulated domestic prices to the import parity.  The GoE continues 
to import wheat for onward sale to the urban poor at subsidized 
prices, impose lending caps for commercial banks, and pursue an 
overall tight monetary and fiscal policy to avoid inflationary 
deficit financing.  Broad money growth is estimated at 23 percent. 
 
Expected Birr Depreciation 
-------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Aimed at easing the balance of payments and foreign 
exchange crises, Ethiopia's central bank (National Bank of Ethiopia) 
depreciated the Birr nearly 11 percent in the month of January 2009 
to 11.02 Birr/USD.  Since February, the GoE has depreciated the Birr 
another 20 cents.  The Birr is now trading at 11.22 per USD, 
accounting for a 12.8 percent decrease in the past five months.  In 
the parallel market, the Birr is exchanging at 13.5 per USD, a 20 
percent spread from the official rate.  The aforementioned EDRI 
report proposed an additional Birr depreciation of 10 to 15 percent 
and GoE sources informed EconOff that a 15 percent depreciation will 
be announced publicly in the next few months. 
 
Exports on the Decline 
---------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Total exported goods have increased 20 percent per annum on 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00001276  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
average in the past five years.  This year, however, exports are not 
keeping pace with previous growth and are actually decreasing when 
comparing the first nine months of this fiscal year to last year. 
(Note:  Ethiopia's fiscal year runs from July 8 through July 7 each 
year. End Note.)  Although the GoE projected exports to total USD 
2.5 billion in the 2008/09 fiscal year, only USD 1.0 billion has 
been recorded through the first nine months and coffee exports -- 
Ethiopia's major export earner -- are down 30% from last year.  In 
the preceding fiscal year, total exports reached USD 1.5 billion, of 
which coffee constituted 35 percent.  In the first nine months of 
the 2008/09 fiscal year, coffee exports only totaled USD 250.9 
million, which is less than half of the total USD 525 million in 
coffee exports from the previous year.  The GoE blamed coffee 
exporters for the decline in exports and as a result, revoked 
licenses of six major exporters and closed the warehouses of over 
eighty firms.  The reduction of coffee exports appears to be tied to 
the decline in world prices as well as domestic problems associated 
with the new coffee marketing and control legislation and capacity 
constraints of the newly established Ethiopian Commodity Exchange 
(ECX) (reftel). 
 
Power Shortages Halt Factory Production 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) Acute power shortages have prompted the Ethiopian Electric 
Power Corporation (EEPCo) to impose power interruptions across the 
country, where reportedly demand outpaces supply by 40 percent.  The 
Ministry of Works and Urban Development announced that the GoE 
required state-owned Mugher Cement and the ruling party affiliated 
Mesebo Cement factories to halt production for two months due to 
their high electricity requirements during the chronic shortage of 
power supply.  This decision was effective as of May 12 and applied 
only to the two dominant cement factories in the country, which 
account for over 90 percent of domestic production.  The Ministry 
also revealed that close to 200,000 tons of cement (costing USD 44 
million) will be imported to fill the supply crunch. 
 
¶7. (U) Due to the GoE's focus on foreign currency-generating 
exports, it previously spared factories involved in export 
industries from power interruptions.  These factories, however, no 
longer receive special treatment as of a May 11 GoE notification. 
Each factory now endures eight days per month without power 
according to a power-rationing schedule, just like all other 
electricity consumers. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶8. (SBU) The good news is that since inflation rates are falling, it 
should make it easier for the GoE to announce the much anticipated 
Birr depreciation -- which the GoE has delayed for fears that it 
would fuel already high inflation rates.  Given the prevalence of 
the parallel market for foreign exchange, inflationary results of a 
currency devaluation should be tempered as a significant percentage 
of the local economy have been buying U.S. Dollars at 13.5 Birr/USD 
and passing on this cost to consumers.  Ethiopia's banks have been 
fairly isolated from the global financial crisis, but declining 
exports and lower remittance flows are two key areas heavily 
affected by the global recession.  In theory, a currency devaluation 
should allow Ethiopia to increase the volume of its exports, but the 
value of exported goods still remains in peril due to price 
destruction through various global markets.  In addition to the 
negative effects of the global financial crisis on exports, 
Ethiopia's domestic production continues to be plagued by the 
extreme shortage of power due to lack of rains for hydropower and 
overall lack of power generating capacity.  So extreme is the 
problem that the GoE decided to import cement to relieve demand in 
the short term despite the country's already precarious foreign 
exchange crisis.  The GoE is normally solely focused on increasing 
exports to generate foreign exchange, so importing cement will only 
work against any increase in exports in the broader balance of 
payments.  The construction of additional power plants is underway, 
but cannot come fast enough to fill demand.  End Comment. 
YAMAMOTO