VZCZCXRO5604
PP RUEHDBU
DE RUEHYE #0332/01 1351604
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 151604Z MAY 09
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9056
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 1757
RUEHKB/AMEMBASSY BAKU PRIORITY 1162
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL PRIORITY 0768
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 0715

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000332 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CARC 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2019 
TAGS: POGV PREL TU AJ AM
SUBJECT: FM OSKANIAN CRITICIZES TURKEY-ARMENIA 
NORMALIZATION PROCESS 
 
REF: A. YEREVAN 306 
     ¶B. YEREVAN 307 
     ¶C. YERVAN 319 
 
Classified By: Amabassador Marie Yovanovitch.  Reason 1.4 (B/D) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  On May 5, Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian 
shared his critical views of Turkey-Armenia normalization. 
On content, he said that Armenia had traded away "genocide" 
recognition for illusory progress in Turkey-Armenia 
negotiations.  Turkey, he claimed, is now holding Armenia 
hostage to a Nagorno-Karabakh resolution favorable to 
Azerbaijan.  On process, Oskanian insisted Armenia had lost 
control of the Turkey-Armenia negotiations to Turkey, which 
is now meddling in the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations. 
Oskanian,s views closely mirror those of others in 
Yerevan,s elite (Refs), but in his case, at least, there is 
more than a little bit of self-interest and a need to defend 
his own record.  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
Barn-Burning Speech Criticizing Rapprochement 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) The Ambassador spoke with former Foreign Minister 
Vartan Oskanian over lunch at the Residence on May 5. 
Oskanian shared highlights from a speech he delivered on 
Remembrance Day in Beirut, Lebanon, the heart of Armenian 
nationalism.  Oskanian heavily criticized the April 22 
Armenian Joint Statement with Turkey on normalizing relations 
and other overtures of the current Armenian Government toward 
Azerbaijan on resolving the status of Nagorno-Karabakh (N-K). 
 In his speech(forwarded to CARC), Oskanian said that the 
proposal to establish a joint historical commission was 
simply another attempt by Turkey to manipulate Armenia into 
relinquishing "genocide" recognition.  Oskanian noted that 
Turkey was more focused on the process rather than the 
substance that would govern normalizing relations with 
Armenia and that Turkey had already achieved its first 
success by staving off a U.S. recognition of the "genocide" 
for one more year.  The most troubling aspect, according to 
Oskanian, was Turkey,s expectation of a Nagorno-Karabakh 
resolution and Turkey,s ability to now - after the April 22 
joint statement - simply wait for a resolution on Azeri 
terms.  He also stated that Armenia's willingness to renounce 
all territorial claims against Turkey must not include a 
concomitant abandonment of seeking justice for losing the 
lands it occupied for thousands of years. 
 
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"GENOCIDE" RECONITION IS NOT NEGOTIABLE 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) In his remarks to the Ambassador, Oskanian stated 
that he supported normalizing relations with Turkey under the 
right conditions and that the current approach of the 
Armenian Government was ineffective and potentially dangerous 
for the country.  Oskanian alleged that the Turks had 
manipulated the negotiation process in their favor and that 
they had no intention of de-linking resolution of N-K as a 
negotiating point prior to normalizing relations with 
Armenia. 
 
¶4.  (C) Oskanian cited the April 22 date of the 
Turkey-Armenia Joint Statement as a sign of this, since it 
preempted Remembrance Day, a hallowed time of Armenian Unity. 
 Oskanian said that if the timing of the statement was 
coincidental, it showed a callous disregard for Armenian 
collective emotions.  If not, it represented a political 
blunder of enormous proportion, because it revealed that 
"genocide" recognition was now a matter for negotiation, and 
a matter of concern only an issue for the Diaspora, not 
Armenians, which he termed unacceptable.  Oskanian stated 
that there had been no concrete success to speak of yet, and 
Turkey was now squarely in the middle of the Nagarno-Karabakh 
negotiations and working with the Azeris against Armenia. 
Finally he stated that calling the process of normalization a 
"road map" was a bad idea due to the parallels it drew with 
the long and drawn-out Israeli-Palestinian peace 
process. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
CONFIDENTIALITY IS KEY TO AVOID TURKISH TRICKS 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶5.  (C) Rightly claiming the credit for starting bilateral 
 
YEREVAN 00000332  002 OF 002 
 
 
talks through the Swiss Government, Oskanian noted that he 
had pursued the negotiations only on condition of absolute 
confidentiality.  He said that he had always told his Turkish 
interlocutors that Armenia would deny all knowledge of 
negotiations if the Turkish Government prematurely tried to 
use the talks as a sign of progress.  However, Oskanian 
assessed that the current Armenian Government had terribly 
miscalculated Turkish intent regarding the April 22 Joint 
Statement.  The result, he said, it is that Armenia and 
President Sargsian were now under enormous pressure to 
deliver a Turkey-Armenia agreement that was favorable to both 
the Armenian populace and the Diaspora -- and clearly 
demonstrate that he is not selling out N-K.  Oskanian stated 
that Turkey and the U.S. had now taken the initiative in the 
normalization process and had essentially left Armenia 
without control over current developments, a mistake former 
President Kocharian would never have made. 
 
------------------------- 
"I SUPPORT NORMALIZATION" 
------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) Commenting on the N-K resolution process, Oskanian 
said that if Turkey opened the border without preconditions, 
it would actually ease Armenia's security demands and by 
extension its willingness to move forward productively in its 
talks with Azerbaijan.  Oskanian argued that with an open 
border Turkey would be better positioned to play a 
constructive role in the region, but not before hand. 
 
¶7.  (C) While Oskanian heavily criticized the actions of 
President Sargsian, he did not believe that the current 
problems with the "road map" or Madrid process were 
insurmountable.  He noted that all Turkey-Armenia issues are 
solvable with political will and diplomatic finesse. 
However, he noted that all further negotiations should be 
kept quiet, so not to allow Turkey the opportunity to 
manipulate the process and claim progress where there was 
none.  Stating that the Dashaks had no choice but to resign 
from government due to the vociferous reaction against the 
joint statement among the party,s patrons in the diaspora, 
he said the Dashnak departure did not cripple the ruling 
coalition, but had further reduced the President's 
maneuvering room on Turkey and N-K. 
 
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COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶8.  (C) The understandable desire to defend his own record 
aside, Oskanian,s views mirror the broad majority of 
Armenian elite thinking (reftels).  Archrivals and former 
presidents, Kocharian and Ter-Petrossian have little in 
common, but on this, they at least publically agree.  This 
means that President Sargsian has a uphill task in swinging 
Armenian support behind his Turkish-Armenia Rapprochement 
policy. 
YOVANOVITCH