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DE RUEHYE #0299/01 1261231
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FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9001
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 1736
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 0753
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000299 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/05/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM EAID AZ TU AM
SUBJECT: SPEAKER PROMISES DOMESTIC BREAKTHROUGHS IN JUNE 
 
YEREVAN 00000299  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Classified By: AMB Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (C) On April 27 EUR DAS Matthew Brzya met with National 
Assembly Speaker Hovik Abrahamian to discuss progress on 
normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia. 
Abrahamian said he fully supported President Sargsian's move 
to normalize ties, and would actively promote its benefits to 
Armenian society.  He said that the agreement would expose 
the President politically, and urged the United States to 
support Sargsian at this critical juncture, specifically by 
fully funding the MCC program.  The Speaker also promised a 
breakthrough on the political detainees issue by late June, 
which would free Armenia's hand to make even more progress on 
Turkey and the NK conflict.  DAS Brzya said he welcomed the 
Speaker's support on Turkey-Armenia, and that the United 
States was ready to use all of its prestige to further 
support the breakthrough.  He said the United States was 
committed to the MCC program, and that Armenia's authorities 
should view the program as a way to restore public trust. 
Bryza stressed that the promised breakthroughs should come 
sooner rather than later, in view of the upcoming June MCC 
Board meeting in Washington.  END SUMMARY. 
 
PARLIAMENT SUPPORTS PRESIDENT SARGSIAN'S DIPLOMACY 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶2. (C) On April 27, EUR DAS Matthew Bryza met with National 
Assembly Speaker Hovik Abrahamian to brief him on his recent 
efforts to broker the Turkish-Armenia road map agreed by 
Ankara and Yerevan on April 23.  Abrahamian expressed 
Armenia's gratitude to DAS Brzya and the U.S. Government for 
actively promoting regional stability and security.  He said 
he fully supported President Sargsian's brave move on the 
Armenia-Turkey agreement on a road map to normalize 
relations, which was announced April 23.  He appreciated DAS 
Bryza's highlighting that normalization of Armenia-Turkey 
ties and settlement of the NK conflict were separate 
processes that nevertheless would positively affect each 
other.  The Speaker said the National Assembly fully 
supported Armenia-Turkey normalization, that it saw no 
linkage between the April 22 joint statement and the issue of 
recognizing the Armenian Genocide, and opined that normalized 
ties with Turkey would finally connect Armenia to Europe and 
reduce Armenia's dependency on Georgia.  Abrahamian declared 
that normalized ties with Turkey would benefit all Armenian 
citizens in concrete ways, for example in the reduction of 
the cost of imported items, whose shipping costs would be 
reduced several times by coming through Turkey instead of 
Georgia. 
 
PRESIDENT IN A DIFFICULT SPOT 
----------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Abrahamian cautioned, however, that the new agreement 
has complicated President Sargsian's domestic political 
situation.  He noted that just an hour before the meeting the 
Armenian Revolutionary Federation party (ARF; aka Dashnaks), 
a junior member of the four-party ruling coalition, had 
decided to leave the coalition in protest of the agreement. 
The Speaker stated that President Sargsian had known the 
Dashnaks might bolt the coalition if he backed the agreement, 
but took the risk anyway because of his conviction that 
normalized ties were in the interest of Armenia's people. 
Abrahamian said the President had been taking heat since last 
fall, when he invited Turkish President Gul to Yerevan for a 
Turkey-Armenia soccer match. He added that the "radical 
opposition" also sought to take advantage of the issuance of 
the joint statement on April 22, arguing that President 
Sargsian backed it in order to help President Obama avoid 
having to use the word "genocide" in his April 24 statement. 
 
¶4. (C) The Speaker stressed that for normalization to be 
successful, there would have to be some quick, positive 
developments, such as the border opening, and that Turkey 
would have to deliver to keep Armenia supportive of the 
normalization process.  He told DAS Bryza that he planned an 
active discussion of the road map's contents by the National 
Assembly, and that he had already agreed with Foreign 
Minister Nalbandian that the latter come to Parliament to 
explain the agreed plan to party faction leaders.  Abrahamian 
said that he would energize the National Assembly so that its 
members would actively discuss and publicize the road map, 
explain it to the public and win understanding and support of 
President Sargsian's initiative.  Abrahamian stated that it 
was time to "prepare" society to understand the authorities' 
viewpoints on normalization of ties. 
 
 
YEREVAN 00000299  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶5. (C) DAS Bryza commended the Speaker on his planned 
outreach efforts, and concurred it was time to pursue this in 
the light of real chances for normalization or Armenia-Turkey 
ties.  Brzya thought that the opposition's criticism of the 
agreement ran counter to Armenia's national interests, as the 
agreement and normalized ties would result in the concrete 
improvement of almost every Armenians, life.  Bryza noted 
that the criticism likely was more of a short-term election 
tactic -- with Yerevan's first ever City Council election 
looming on May 31 -- than the true thinking of the 
opposition, which had supported normalization of ties without 
preconditions when it was in power in the 1990s. 
 
ACKNOWLEDGE SARGSIAN'S RISK-TAKING BY SUPPORTING HIM 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶6. (C) Abrahamian said that the Europeans and the United 
States should support President Sargsian in view of his 
support of the agreement and the complications it had created 
for his political position.  Abrahamian stressed that 
Sargsian backed the agreement even though he knew it would 
compromise his domestic image.  On top of the complications 
posed by the agreement, President Sargsian was also facing 
the mounting local effects of the global economic crisis and 
"other circumstances" at home.  (Note:  We assume Abrahamian 
meant by "other circumstances" the continued imprisonment of 
approximately 60 opposition supporters.  End Note) 
 
¶7. (C) Abrahamian said one way the U.S. could support 
Sargsian now was by restoring full funding to the MCC 
program.  The Speaker noted that if the MCC was truly an 
assistance program and not a political tool, the Armenian 
people should not be punished for the "actions of the 
authorities."  The Speaker said that President Sargsian was 
personally committed to funding MCC projects even if the 
United States chose not to restore the funds it had 
suspended, and that Sargsian would see to it that Armenia 
carry out the entire program, even if it takes longer to 
implement than would otherwise be the case with full U.S. 
funding.  Abrahamian added that full USG support of the MCC 
would testify to a "warming-up" of US-Armenian ties. 
 
¶8. (C) DAS Bryza agreed that the United States wished success 
for the MCC program in Armenia, and acknowledged the 
importance of the program in bettering the lives of 
Armenians.  But he also told the Speaker that it was a 
vehicle with which the authorities could regain the people's 
trust.  He highlighted to Abrahamian that the purpose of 
establishing an MCC Compact was to affirm that the country in 
question shared with the United States a commitment to 
expanding political and economic freedom.  The MCC Board 
would decide whether to continue the rural roads program in 
Armenia on the basis of its assessment of whether Armenia was 
fulfilling democracy and human rights criteria (e.g., ruling 
justly). 
 
¶9. (C) Abrahamian said that while President Sargsian is 
committed to democratization, it will take time for democracy 
to evolve in Armenia.  He said the president was committed to 
resolving domestic issues peacefully, is open to compromise, 
and does not seek to force his will on others.  But 
cultivating compromise in Armenia is not easy, and President 
Sargsian needs help to achieve his vision and implement his 
priorities.  Abrahamian reiterated that he and the National 
Assembly stand behind the president, and will become more 
active reaching out to society as a mediator between society 
and the authorities.  Abrahamian said he wanted to make the 
National Assembly a forum for the expression of diverse 
viewpoints in this regard, and said he viewed criticism and 
debate as a healthy means to achieve an optimal result. 
 
¶10. (C) DAS Brzya commended President Sargsian as a bold 
leader who is often willing to compromise -- as his personal 
support of the Armenia-Turkey agreement showed.  Brzya also 
stated that the National Assembly's support of President 
Sargsian's statesmanship through debates and public 
discussions would be healthy indicators of a democratic 
approach to the issue.  Bryza promised the Speaker that the 
U.S. Government would strongly support the Armenia-Turkey 
agreement , and would actively work to show that the 
agreement would positively affect negotiations on the NK 
conflict.  Bryza said he was already starting to explain the 
USG's view and its support of the agreement to Armenia's 
public. 
 
SPEAKER PREDICTS JUNE BREAKTHROUGHS ON DETAINEES 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶11. (C) Bryza expressed hope that President Sargsian would 
duplicate his boldness and compromise on foreign policy 
 
YEREVAN 00000299  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
issues in the domestic arena, and urged Armenia's authorities 
to promptly seek a legal way out of the detainees issue. 
Brzya noted that 21 of the 55 political detainees have 
already served one-third of their sentences, which makes them 
eligible for early release provided they possess a record of 
good conduct while in confinement.  Bryza said such a release 
would send a positive "shock wave" through 
Armenian politics. 
 
¶12. (C) Abrahamian said he personally regretted the March 1 
events of 2008, and that both Armenia and President Sargsian 
had lost a year to move forward on development and 
democratization.  He confided to Bryza that he has discussed 
the release issue with president, but said he was opposed to 
amnesty, and would oppose it if brought before the 
parliament.  He said it was necessary for all of the court 
cases underway to finish before an early release could be 
considered. 
 
¶13. (C) The Speaker insisted that the authorities did not 
want anybody spending more time in jail than necessary, but 
that all of the court hearings were set to finish by late 
June -- and that this would be the "best timing" for a 
release.  (Note:  The Speaker joked to DAS Bryza and the 
Ambassador that &sometimes my opinion reflects what really 
happens later."  End Note)  Abrahamian added that by the end 
of June "everything will be clear," and the authorities will 
then be prepared to do more on Turkey, the NK conflict and 
improving the economy. 
 
YEREVAN ELECTION TO BE CLEAN, BUT SEEKS EMBASSY'S HELP 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶14. (C) Abrahamian complained that the "radical opposition" 
was doing everything to blemish the upcoming May 31 Yerevan 
city council election (in which Yerevan's mayor will be 
indirectly elected), that it would undertake provocative 
activities, and that the authorities "have to do our best to 
prevent this."  He declared that Yerevan's citizens 
understand that opposition leader -- and former president -- 
Levon Ter-Petrossian cannot be a successful mayor, and that 
what the city really needs is a manager, not a politician who 
only knows how to talk. Abrahamian predicted that the ruling 
coalition will net 70-80 percent of the vote and be able to 
work together within the council to address Yerevan's issues, 
boasting that "we (the ruling Republican Party) always share 
our successes with our partners."  He promised that the 
authorities will do everything to ensure a free and fair 
election. 
 
¶15. (C) Abrahamian then appealed to Ambassador Yovanovitch to 
ensure that justice prevails in the election, that the 
Embassy be wary of opposition provocations, and that she 
personally point out to the Armenian public when provocations 
take place.  The Speaker reiterated President Sargsian's 
commitment to democratization, but stated that "we need your 
assistance" during the election period.  He said he would be 
the first to mention if "there are any mistakes" made during 
the election.  He then affirmed that "it will be President 
Sargsian who will normalize relations with Turkey and settle 
the NK conflict."  The Speaker then opined that "if you see a 
country trying to make things better in the region, the 
United States should help it." 
 
¶16. (C) DAS Brzya welcomed the Speaker's prediction that 
positive developments on the detainees issue were imminent, 
and expressed hope that the breakthroughs would indeed 
materialize.  But while he acknowledged that approving a 
presidential amnesty of detainees was the Speaker's 
prerogative, DAS Bryza urged the Speaker to help arrive at a 
solution that would be taken sooner rather than later, even 
before late June.  Ambassador Yovanovitch emphasized to the 
Speaker that the MCC board members who would be meeting in 
June to discuss Armenia would be expecting some positive 
developments by then, and joined DAS Bryza in urging an 
earlier release of the detainees. 
 
¶17. (U)  EUR DAS Bryza cleared this cable. 
 
YOVANOVITCH