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R 052330Z MAY 09
FM AMCONSUL VANCOUVER
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INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUEHVC/AMCONSUL VANCOUVER 7722

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 VANCOUVER 000125 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: CA PGOV
SUBJECT: BRITISH COLUMBIA GRUDGINGLY MOVES TOWARD PROVINCIAL 
ELECTIONS 
 
VANCOUVER 00000125  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. Summary: British Columbia heads into May 12 provincial 
elections with a sagging economy and a fairly apathetic voting 
public. Premier Gordon Campbell's BC Liberals maintain a slight 
lead in polling but the real battle will be fought 
riding-by-riding, with the NDP moving closer, especially in the 
interior and on Vancouver Island.  Key issues are the economy 
and crime, which should be the BC Liberals' issues.  The contest 
is really theirs to lose but missteps by both parties, and a 
general lack of enthusiasm for either leader, are leaving BC 
voters looking for their "Obama."  The winner in the end will be 
the party that is able to get their faithful to the polls in the 
largest numbers.  End Summary. 
 
-------------------- 
Nobody's Perfect 
-------------------- 
 
¶2.  BC will elect 85 MLAs on May 12.  With six new seats and 
many incumbents not returning, almost thirty percent of the 
members will be new faces.  The economy is the number one issue 
for the elections.  The past eight years have seen tremendous 
growth in BC's economy and the BC Liberals hope to use their 
record of economic stewardship to win the election.  But the 
economic tailspin is hitting home and recent numbers, especially 
rapidly rising unemployment figures for BC, are putting a damper 
on Campbell's campaign slogan "Keep B.C. Strong."  Campbell's 
attacks on NDP leader Carole James' lack of economic experience 
resonate in the business community and suburban lower mainland. 
But the NDP maintains a strong lead in the interior and on 
Vancouver Island, areas hit hardest by the forestry industry 
collapse. According to political watchers we have contacted, 
Campbell is so unpopular in these areas he was urged by advisors 
not to appear with the candidates and to leave the campaigning 
to the locals. 
 
¶3. Crime is the second most important issue in most BC polls. 
Again, the BC Liberals have traditionally had the upper hand 
with this issue in elections, but the spate of gang violence 
over the past 18 months has taken its toll on the public's 
perception of their ability to handle the problem.  Several high 
profile and sweeping arrests in the past few weeks have boosted 
the BC Liberal's position.  But the resignation of John van 
Dongen from the Solicitor General position, the province's top 
cop, over speeding tickets has proven a big embarrassment for 
Campbell and his BC Liberals. 
 
¶4. A big embarrassment for Carole James and the NDP has been 
criticism from what would normally be her own constituency over 
her stance against BC's carbon tax.  The carbon tax has been 
controversial since its inception last July and James was hoping 
to build on her opposition to this policy as a cornerstone of 
her campaign.  But her opposition to the tax backfired when 
several prominent environmentalists, including Canada's most 
famous environmentalist, David Suzuki, strongly criticized her 
position.  In his press conference, Suzuki did not take a clear 
political stance against the NDP, but he showed visible anger at 
James and, according to one of our press contacts, all but 
called her a hypocrite.  The issue is primarily an 
urban/suburban concern impacting marginal BC Liberal ridings 
targeted by the NDP and demonstrates disunity among its base 
that is costing the NDP. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
Single Transferable Vote - Say What? 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. B.C. residents are also facing a ballot initiative that could 
significantly change the way Members of the Legislative Assembly 
(MLAs) are elected in the future.  The single transferable vote 
(STV) proposal would alter the province's electoral system from 
first-past-the-post to a system of larger ridings where voters 
would rank order candidates and a complex counting system would 
determine multiple representatives.  The system would send to 
the legislature not only the top vote getter, but as many as 
seven contenders, depending on the size of the riding and the 
percentage of votes received.  The STV system first appeared on 
the provincial ballot in 2005 and fell just two percentage 
points short of the 60 percent of votes needed to change the 
law.  Supporters of the system are hoping to make up that 
deficit this time and get the system approved. Proponents claim 
it is a fairer and more representative system that would allow 
smaller parties (such as the Greens) a better chance to be 
included in the provincial government.  However polls show most 
voters do not really understand how STV works and, with the 
economy so prominent on voters' minds, the requirement to get 60 
percent for adoption may be out of reach for such an obscure 
issue. 
 
¶6. Comment:  If the BC Liberals can galvanize their base and hit 
hard on their economic record they will be the party forming the 
next provincial government.  But missteps, apathy and Gordon 
Campbell's lackluster popularity are hurting the party.  Carole 
 
VANCOUVER 00000125  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
James is viewed more favorably as a person, but while a recent 
post-debate poll had James narrowly winning the event, Campbell 
won the question of who looked more like a premier.  With no one 
grabbing the public's attention as an outright leader, the race 
is shaping up as a race to the polls, literally.  Whoever gets 
his constituency out in the biggest numbers is going to win and, 
in that regard, everything from the traffic to the weather could 
determine the next provincial government.  End Comment. 
CHICOLA