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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 000529 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PINR TW
SUBJECT: TRYING TIMES FOR DPP CHAIR TSAI ING-WEN 
 
REF: A. TAIPEI 1601 
     ¶B. TAIPEI 0352 
     ¶C. TAIPEI 0438 
     ¶D. TAIPEI 0488 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, 
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Tsai Ing-wen continues efforts to overcome 
challenges and revitalize Taiwan's major opposition party as 
she nears her first anniversary as DPP Chairperson.  Tsai's 
moderate and cautious approach has drawn criticism from some 
DPP supporters who want the party to take a more 
confrontational stand against the Ma Ying-jeou 
administration.  Difficult challenges, including the party's 
lack of funds, contention over nominations and former 
President Chen Shui-bian's corruption trial, have hindered 
Tsai's efforts to remake the DPP into a viable alternative to 
the ruling KMT.  The success of an upcoming protest 
demonstration and how the party fares in local elections in 
December will be important tests of Tsai's leadership. 
Several DPP contacts have suggested Tsai would step down if 
the party does poorly at the polls in December.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (C) Halfway into her two-year term as leader of the 
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Tsai Ing-wen is 
struggling to revitalize her fractious party, which emerged 
tattered from defeats in the 2008 legislative and 
presidential elections.  Tsai, who served as vice premier 
under Premier Su Tseng-chang, was elected DPP chairperson on 
May 18, 2008, easily overcoming challenges from two Deep 
Green fundamentalists (Koo Kuan-min and legislator Trong 
Chai, who dropped out in favor of Koo).  Many in the DPP 
hoped Tsai, an academic and bureaucrat with minimal 
experience in electoral politics and party work, would give 
the party a clean image and fresh start.  However, leading 
the party has proven more difficult than winning the 
chairperson election.  Tsai's background and experience have 
not fully prepared her for political party leadership and the 
series of difficult challenges that came with it. 
 
¶3. (C) The DPP traditionally has been dominated by intraparty 
factions and their leaders.  As an outsider to DPP politics, 
Tsai has attempted to balance the various factions, trying 
not to offend anyone.  However, her moderation and the 
support she has received from the New Tide faction may have 
alienated some of the party's Deep Green fundamentalists. 
With a background in international trade, law, and government 
service, Tsai has made it her mission to strengthen the party 
by promoting reforms and giving greater weight to policy 
issues, based on the DPP's having been in power for eight 
years.  She has hoped to deemphasize controversial Taiwan 
independence themes while laying greater emphasis on social 
and economic welfare issues, especially addressing the 
problems faced by lower income and disadvantaged groups.  In 
February and March, Tsai, together with the Taiwan Solidarity 
Union, organized two Citizens National Affairs Conferences to 
critique government policies and production recommendations 
on social, economic, and and cross-Strait issues. 
 
Challenges 
---------- 
 
¶4. (C) When Tsai became DPP Chairperson, President Ma 
Ying-jeou was just coming into office and enjoyed great 
popularity.  Anticipating they would be facing a "long 
winter" in opposition, other DPP leaders were content to stay 
in the background.  This gave Tsai room to launch several 
intra-party reforms, one being to give her control of 
nominations for the December local elections.  Subsequently, 
Ma's polling numbers dropped sharply, a result of the 
economic downturn, and other DPP leaders, sensing new 
opportunities, began to speak out and maneuver for political 
advantage, threatening to undermine Tsai's leadership. 
Former Vice President Annette Lu has launched a newspaper, 
while former presidential candidate Frank Hsieh now has his 
own radio show.  DPP Legislator Chiu Yi-ying labeled the 
maneuvering of these and other party heavyweights as Tsai's 
 
TAIPEI 00000529  002 OF 004 
 
 
"big crisis." 
 
Pressure to Take to the Streets 
------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) Moreover, radical DPP supporters have been pressing 
Tsai to take a tougher stand against President Ma and the KMT 
administration, both rhetorically and by going back to the 
streets.  Tsai, whose natural inclinations are moderate, has 
felt a need to defuse this pressure but she is out of her 
element in street protests.  Following two successful 
demonstrations last year, the inexperienced Tsai lost control 
of a large DPP protest against visiting high-level PRC 
representative Chen Yunlin (ref A).  Former DPP International 
Affairs Director Lin Chen-wei told us, based on phone calls 
received at party headquarters, that DPP supporters were 
split 50-50 over whether the party should confront the KMT 
more assertively.  Other DPP contacts stress Tsai is under 
"extreme pressure" from Deep Green fundamentalists who want 
the party to take to the streets. 
 
Nominations 
----------- 
 
¶6.  (C) The DPP party congress in July 2008 agreed to 
temporarily jettison a divisive primary system and centralize 
the nomination of candidates for the December local 
elections, in the hands of Tsai and party headquarters.  The 
new nomination process has made Tsai a direct target for 
criticism.  Her decision to nominate legislator Lee Chun-yee 
rather than former Presidential Office Secretary General Mark 
Chen to run for Tainan County magistrate has proven 
especially controversial.  According to our contacts, Tsai 
rejected Chen because she wanted to groom a new generation of 
leaders (Chen is 73), and because she feared Chen, who is 
closely connected to former President Chen Shui-bian, would 
turn the media focus on overall local election campaigns into 
a rehash of Chen Shui-bian's flawed record.  Despite being 
passed over for the nomination, Mark Chen, who served as 
magistrate in Tainan from 1993 to 2001 and has a following in 
county, so far has refused to withdraw from the race, 
creating the possibility of a DPP loss in a 3-person contest 
in the Green heartland (ref C).  DPP leaders will continue 
efforts to persuade him to withdraw from the race. 
 
Short of Funds 
-------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Election campaigns, street protests, and other 
activities all require funds, and DPP finances have been 
shaky since the party's election defeats last year.  Contacts 
have told AIT that the party barely had enough at one point 
to cover its bills for operating expenses, let alone pay down 
its large campaign debts.  Tsai has reduced the party 
headquarters staff and floorspace, and she has launched a not 
very successful small donation campaign.  The current 
economic downturn and Chen Shui-bian,s corruption trial are 
hindering the party,s ability to raise funds, especially 
from businesses.  One reason for Tsai's upcoming trip to 
Canada and the U.S. is to  raise funds from the party's 
overseas Taiwanese supporters (ref D). 
 
Chen Shui-bian 
-------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) Tsai's work has been complicated by the detention, 
indictment, and trial of former President Chen Shui-bian (ref 
E).  A small but vocal group of supporters have been pressing 
Tsai to do more to back the former president, while some 
party leaders want Tsai to make a cleaner break with Chen. 
Chen has not made things any easier for the party 
chairperson, criticizing Tsai as the DPP's Ma Ying-jeou 
(i.e., a weak leader).  For her part, Tsai has called for a 
fair trial and the protection of Chen's rights, but she has 
been quite firm in not endorsing the former President's 
defense case.  The next hearing on whether Chen should 
continue to be held in detention is scheduled for May 7.  If 
Chen is released, as many expect, he may well become a bigger 
 
TAIPEI 00000529  003 OF 004 
 
 
thorn in the party's side.  DPP International Affairs 
Director Bikhim Hsiao predicted to AIT that Chen would work 
to stir up his supporters and might even try to launch a 
referendum signature drive on Ma Ying-jeou's proposed 
Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with China. 
 
Out of Place in DPP Culture 
--------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (C) Tsai tends to be low-key and businesslike, a sharp 
contrast to the assertive leaders of the past who emerged 
from social and political protest movements.  She approaches 
difficult issues cautiously, and, realizing her inexperience 
in party affairs, takes her time in making decisions. 
Radical supporters sometimes misinterpret her low-key manner 
and caution as indecisiveness and weakness, but she is firm 
in her decisions and quite demanding of her staff. 
 
¶10. (C)  Bikhim Hsiao described Tsai as an intellectual and 
not a grassroots campaigner, someone who faces "heavy 
burdens" and pressure from party supporters who want her to 
do more.  DPP supporters feel frustrated, not seeing that 
Tsai is actually moving the party forward because Tsai is not 
very public about her efforts.  Hsiao admitted that Tsai's 
moderation and tendency to think things through carefully 
often leads to missed opportunities.  For example, Tsai's 
remarks are usually too bland to be picked up as sound bites 
by Taiwan's media.  DPP supporters are more used to 
charismatic leaders like Chen Shui-bian, who could stir a 
crowd and sound convincing, whether or not he had given much 
thought to his remarks.  Moreover, Tsai is more comfortable 
speaking in Mandarin, but DPP grassroots crowds expect their 
leaders to speak in Taiwanese. 
 
Tsai Puts On Tough Front and Takes On Two Tests 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶11.  (C) Although "not happy" about the situation she and the 
DPP currently face, Tsai Ing-wen "is not a quitter," Bikhim 
Hsiao stressed, adding that Tsai will not give up her current 
moderate approach.   Tsai admitted to the Director that she 
is "not really excited about politics," but asked not to be 
quoted. 
 
¶12.  (C) Following an initial year of adjustment, Tsai will 
need to demonstrate more concrete results in her second year, 
DPP Central Standing Committee Member Luo Wen-jia suggested 
to us recently.  One test of Tsai's leadership will be the 
DPP's May 17 march and rally to protest KMT administration 
policies on the first anniversary of Ma's inauguration. 
Bikhim Hsiao defined success for this event as a large 
turnout (the goal is 300,000) plus keeping the demonstration 
peaceful and orderly.  She cautioned that some radicals could 
try to stir up confrontations, while the possibiliy of KMT 
infiltrators inciting incidents could also not be ruled out. 
 
¶13.  (C) The second and more critical test for Tsai will come 
in December when Taiwan will hold elections for city mayors 
and county magistrates.  The DPP, which currently holds 6 of 
23 local governments, all in southern Taiwan, hopes to 
maintain its current standing and add at least one or two 
seats.  If the DPP drops below 6 local governments, Tsai is 
likely to face pressure to step down or might well decide to 
do so on her own, following traditional DPP practice. 
Although a major loss would disappoint the party and Tsai, 
some DPP members, for example, Taipei City Councilor Wu 
Szu-yao, suggest that it will take another major defeat to 
force the party to face its problems and reinvent itself. 
 
Bio Note 
-------- 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Tsai earned an undergraduate degree in law from 
National Taiwan University in 1978, a master,s in law from 
Cornell University in 1980, and a doctorate in juridical 
science (J.S.D.)from the London School of Economics in 1984. 
She was a professor at Taiwan,s Soochow and National 
Chengchi universities before joining the Ministry of Economic 
 
TAIPEI 00000529  004 OF 004 
 
 
Affairs as a chief legal advisor from 1992-2000.  Tsai helped 
draft documents and laws related to Taiwan,s WTO accession. 
She was Mainland Affairs Council Chairperson from 2000-2004, 
an at-large DPP legislator from 2004-2005, and Vice Premier 
from 2006-2007.  Tsai then served as chair of TaiMed 
Biologics, a biotechnology firm funded by the Taiwan 
government and private investors, including her family.  She 
was elected DPP Chairperson on May 18, 2008  Tsai speaks 
excellent English and has a wry sense of humor. 
 
 
 
YOUNG