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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 000880 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PINR KDEM IN EAGR
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09:  THE CONGRESS LOSES GROUND IN 
HARYANA 
 
NEW DELHI 00000880  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  The Congress Party appears poised to win 
five to seven seats in Haryana parliamentary elections on May 
¶7.  Currently, they hold nine of Haryana's ten seats. 
Congress's strong development record and high economic growth 
rate -- together with the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party - 
Indian Lok Dal Party alliance's weak on-the-ground campaign 
coordination -- provide a boost for the party in upcoming 
polls.  However, petty infighting and factionalism over Lok 
Sabha seat distribution continue to distract the Congress 
leadership and may negatively impact the party's campaign. 
Identity politics is also expected to play a prominent role 
in these elections, as parties vie to project appropriate 
candidates to gain the support of strategic ethnic/caste vote 
banks.  END SUMMARY. 
 
Congress Advantage 
--- 
 
¶2.  (U) Poloff and PolFSN traveled to Haryana mid-April to 
assess the political climate in the state ahead of the 
parliamentary election on May 7.  They visited Rohtak, Hisar, 
Chandigarh, Ambala and Sonepat.  Based on meetings with 
politicians, journalists, civic leaders and businessmen, the 
Congress Party will likely come out with a majority of 
Haryana's ten seats in May elections. 
 
Haryana:  Caste Tensions in One of India's Wealthiest States 
--- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Haryana is one of the smallest states in India with 
a population of 21 million.  It surrounds the state of Delhi 
on three sides and, consequently, a large area of Haryana is 
included in the National Capital Region (NCR).  Haryana has 
the third highest per capita income in the country due in 
part to the cities of Gurgaon and Faridabad, both major hubs 
for the IT and auto industries.  Owing to its proximity to 
Delhi, Haryana has been a major recipient of significant 
foreign investment. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The state is currently governed by the Congress 
Party, led by Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda.  In 2004, 
the Congress swept nine out of ten districts in the Lok Sabha 
elections.  The Congress's winning streak continued in 2005 
state assembly elections, securing 67 out of 90 seats in the 
unicameral state legislature.  The opposition Indian Lok Dal 
Party (INDP) has worked to rebuild its political standing 
ahead of May polls by entering into a coalition with the BJP. 
 INLD chief and former Haryana Chief Minister, Om Prakash 
Chautala, retains popular support among rural Haryavanis and 
is expected to lend star power to the opposition INLD-BJP 
coalition.  However, several contacts noted that weak 
INLD-BJP ground-level coordination has hampered the 
coalition's campaign.  Many expect the INLD-BJP to pick up a 
maximum of two Lok Sabha seats in upcoming polls. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The Haryana political landscape is split generally 
into Jat and non-Jat vote banks, putting added pressure on 
party leaders to formulate caste-identity combinations in 
line with the composition of the electorate.  Jats are 
historically an agricultural caste that often went into 
military service and now dominate politics in Punjab and 
Haryana.  The INLD, led by Jat leader Chautala, has 
traditionally held a comfortable majority of the Jat vote 
bank (social caste group that makes up one-fourth of the 
state population).  In 2005 assembly elections, the Jat vote 
shifted to the Congress Party when it projected (Jat) 
Bhupinder Singh Hooda as the chief ministerial candidate. 
Hooda won, but according to political observers, non-Jat 
Congress leaders have felt side-lined in his administration. 
This, in part, explains why former Chief Minister and 
Congressman Bhajan Lal publicly broke with Congress and 
subsequently formed the Haryana Janhit Congress Party (HJC). 
Few believe the HJC will have a significant impact in 
upcoming elections, noting that the party lost two state 
assembly seats and one Lok Sabha seat in 2008 by-elections. 
 
NEW DELHI 00000880  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
Contacts also expect Mayawati's BSP to attract a portion of 
the non-Jat vote bank, particularly in cities with sizable 
other backward caste (OBC) and scheduled tribe (ST) 
constituencies such as Ambala and Gurgaon. 
 
Mewat:  Uneven Development in Booming Haryana 
--- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) If Gurgaon conjures up images of glass-front high 
rise headquarters of Oracle and Motorola, and air-conditioned 
malls, the neighboring Mewat district brings home the 
disparity of economic development in Haryana, one of India's 
wealthiest states.  The only modern structure in this 
predominantly rural district - hardly 30 km from Gurgaon - is 
a three-story hospital.  But the hospital is in total 
disrepair - trash and used medical supplies clutter the 
hallways; broken down ambulances clutter the unpaved parking 
lot; and stray dogs parade freely through the main corridor. 
According to locals, deteriorating public healthcare is just 
one aspect of widespread under development in the Mewat belt, 
where social indicators (literacy, gender ratio and public 
education investment) are on par with some of the most 
backward states in India.  While Chief Minister Hooda revels 
in the state's successful industrialization and development 
record, a tour through the Mewat district reveals that 
economic growth occurring in much of the state has not yet 
seeped into some rural corners. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) With elections around the corner, the Congress-led 
state government has focused its campaign on development 
issues.  Hooda and other state leaders have reminded 
audiences of Congress-led development schemes specifically 
targeting the rural poor, a group the Congress Party has 
called the "aam admi" or common man.  Congress development 
works include: the allotment of 100-year tenancy plots of 
land to scheduled caste (SC), backward caste and below 
poverty line families; guaranteed water connection for SC 
families; and increased electricity gentrification for poor 
areas. 
 
Congress Infighting Ensues, Opposition Fails to Capitalize 
--- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) According to political observers, petty infighting 
within the Congress Party over Lok Sabha ticket distribution 
has negatively affected the party's campaign.  While the main 
opposition INLD-BJP coalition announced their candidate weeks 
before the April 11 nomination filing deadline, the Congress 
waited till the very last moment to announce candidates for 
five of ten seats.  Contacts explained that party leaders 
were trying to avoid rebellion within the ranks, noting there 
were too many qualified contenders for the remaining seats. 
In their view, the Congress elections campaign has slowed 
significantly in the last two weeks as Hooda loyalists and 
new blood have replaced "old warhorse" party veterans and 
sitting MPs.  While Congress may see its seat total decline, 
no one expects the INLD-BJP coalition to make significant 
electoral gains at the Congress's expense.  Herkawaljit 
Singh, Editor of the Punjabi vernacular newspaper the Ajit, 
explained the INLD-BJP has failed to coordinate on the 
ground-level to take full advantage of Congress discord in 
these districts. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) From Sonepat, the Congress has fielded Hooda 
loyalist Jitender Malik despite the strong claim and 
popularity of senior Congress leader and State Minister of 
Finance, Birender Singh.  Arvind Sharma, the sitting Congress 
MP from Karnal, was re-nominated for the seat after facing 
stiff competition from Hooda's close associate, Vinod Sharma. 
 Similarly, Kumari Selja has been re-nominated from Ambala 
after a tough battle with another Hooda loyalist.  Shruti 
Choudhry, grand-daughter of the late Bansi Lal and daughter 
of Haryana's Tourism Minister Kiran Choudhry, ousted party 
veteran Rao Inderjit Singh from the Bhiwani-Mahendergarh 
seat.  Meanwhile, Indian Youth Congress President Ashok 
 
NEW DELHI 00000880  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
Tanwar, a close friend of Rahul Gandhi, has replaced sitting 
MP Atma Singh Gill in Sirsa district.  Sirsa is considered an 
INLA stronghold and many expect a hotly contested race 
between the Congress newcomer and veteran INLD MLA, Sita Ram. 
 
Caste Matters:  Parties Work Hard for the Jat and Non-Jat 
Votes 
--- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Haryana's highly caste-sensitive political 
landscape has shifted over the last four years.  While the 
predominant Jat community will continue to support Congress 
in upcoming polls, non-Jats - including Brahmins, Buniyas, 
Gujjars, Dalits and Punjabis - have become increasingly 
disgruntled with the ruling government and may be looking for 
a party alternative.  They project the Congress will face 
tough opposition in constituencies with sizable non-Jat 
populations such as Ambala, Sirsa and Gurgaon. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Om Prakash Chautala (Jat), INLD Chief, had hoped 
to broaden his party's non-Jat appeal ahead of May elections 
by partnering with the BJP.  However, Hindustan Times 
Chandigarh-based Resident Editor, Ramesh Vinayek, explained 
that bad blood remains from the parties' public falling out 
after the 2005 state elections defeat, which has hampered the 
coalition's campaign coordination efforts in recent months. 
Observers expect the INLD-BJP to pick up at most two seats in 
May polls, down from earlier predictions of five seats. 
Bhajan Lal's breakaway Haryana Janhit Congress Party (HJC) 
has not emerged as a credible force against the Congress due 
in part to factionalism and poor coordination on the 
elections trail.  The party's only hope for a Lok Sabha 
victory is in the Hisar district, where seventy-eight-year 
old Bhajan Lal will challenge sitting Congress MP Jai Prakash. 
 
Delimitation:  An Opening for BSP 
--- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) The process of delimitation (re-districting) has 
put pressure on political parties to field candidates that 
reflect the state's changing state demographics.  After 
delimitation, Gurgaon has carved out its own parliamentary 
seat, in which Muslims account for one-fourth of the 
electorate.  The Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) has fielded 
Zakir Hussain, son of the late Muslim leader Tayyib Hussain, 
against Union Minister of State Rao Inderjit Singh and the 
BJP's S. Sudha Yadav.  Many expect Zakir to carry the Muslim 
vote, which would usher in the BSP's first Lok Sabha win in 
Haryana.  Former Home Minister and INLD party member Akram 
Khan also joined the BSP in 2008 and is expected to attract a 
large number of Muslim votes in Ambala. 
 
¶13.  (U) As a sign of the party's growing strength, BSP 
supremo Mayawati has headlined large elections rallies 
throughout the state.  On April 4, more than 70,000 
supporters greeted Mayawati in Jind, a region that is 
commonly referred as the "Jat heartland."  She held smaller 
rallies late March in Gurgaon and the reserve constituencies 
of Ambala and Sirsa.  With a view to lure the poor and 
economically weaker sections of upper castes, Mayawati 
criticized the Congress for neglecting the poor and hinted 
that she would extend "special reservation" status to 
targeted groups.  Contacts told us the high turnout at BSP 
rallies has unnerved the Congress, which has been trying to 
woo backward castes through populist sops such as free land 
allotment and employment guarantee schemes. 
 
Economy Keeps on Chugging Despite Global Downturn 
--- 
 
¶14.  (SBU) There was general agreement among our contacts 
that Haryana's economic standing has improved under Hooda's 
watch.  The economy has witnessed more than nine percent 
growth in the last three years.  At current prices, the Gross 
State Domestic Product has been estimated at USD 30.6 billion 
 
NEW DELHI 00000880  004 OF 004 
 
 
in 2007-08, which is a 17.7 percent increase from the 
previous year (USD 26 billion in 2006-07).  According to the 
State Minister for Transport, Power and Public Works, Randeep 
Surjewal, Haryana's impressive economic growth has been 
driven by increases in the communications, construction, 
transport, real estate, manufacturing, electricity, and 
gas-water supply sectors.  While agriculture continues to 
occupy a significant portion of the economy, its share of the 
economy is on the decline.  In Surjewal's opinion, Haryana's 
gradual economic shift from agriculture to 
manufacturing/service sectors is a sign that the "economy is 
moving in the right direction."  Hindustan Times' Ramesh 
Vinayek added that the state's commercial-industrial centers 
have kept pace despite the global economic slowdown.  He 
explained that Haryana's "pro-business" reputation and 
tax-free concessions have helped to maintain domestic and 
foreign business investment. 
 
¶15.  (SBU) INLD-BJP opposition has argued that economic 
development has been limited to the eastern corridor of the 
state, north and south of Delhi, leaving the rest of Haryana 
behind.  Many have pointed out that rural Haryavanis have 
particularly suffered from the relative decline in the 
state's agricultural sector.  (Note:  Haryana is a major 
beneficiary of government procurement of wheat and rice, 
whose minimum support prices have risen 20-50% in the last 
two years.  End Note.)  Natural calamities and sporadic 
rainfall, they said, often cause substantial loss in crop 
production, which has contributed to stalled economic growth 
in rural areas.  Ramesh Vinayek pointed out that development 
policy is a daunting task for any government.  In his view, 
the Hooda government has done a "commendable" job in 
addressing socio-economic needs statewide and, as a result, 
there is a general sense of goodwill towards the Congress as 
elections near. 
 
COMMENT:  Congress Holds Ground 
--- 
 
¶16.  (SBU) COMMENT: Haryavanis are generally happy with the 
government, and many expect the Congress to win the majority 
of seats in May polls.  The Congress Party argues that it has 
a strong record on economic development, but large sections 
of rural Haryana have been left behind in the last four years 
of growth.  Chief Minister Hooda has done more than previous 
governments to lift up rural communities, but whether his 
government has done enough to win back "common man" support 
in forthcoming elections has yet to be determined.  END 
COMMENT. 
BURLEIGH