VZCZCXRO6531
PP RUEHGA RUEHMT RUEHQU RUEHVC
DE RUEHHA #0028 1251443
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 051443Z MAY 09
FM AMCONSUL HALIFAX
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1392
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY 0609
INFO RUCNCAN/ALL CANADIAN POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUEHHA/AMCONSUL HALIFAX 1483

UNCLAS HALIFAX 000028 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR WHA/CAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT: FALL OF NOVA SCOTIA GOVERNMENT LEADS TO JUNE 9 PROVINCIAL 
ELECTION 
 
¶1. SUMMARY:  The Tory government of Premier Rodney MacDonald of 
Nova Scotia collapsed on May 4, setting the stage for a 
provincial election on June 9.  We expect the focus of campaign 
to be on local issues, primarily the economy.  Regardless which 
party emerges victorious on June 9--most likely as yet another 
minority government--post does not anticipate any significant 
changes in areas of U.S. interest such as trade, energy 
development and border security.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. Nova Scotians will be going to the polls in a provincial 
election on June 9 after Tory Premier Rodney MacDonald's 
minority government collapsed on May 4, when opposition parties 
voted down a crucial bill in the Legislative Assembly. 
MacDonald's finance minister had just tabled a budget which the 
government declared was a "balanced" document.  In reality it 
would only have been balanced if the government could have taken 
money from the province's offshore revenues, which by law must 
be applied to the provincial debt.  On April 30, the MacDonald 
government tabled legislation to amend the law and it came to a 
vote on May 4.  As they had warned, the opposition members of 
the House refused to support the bill, prompting the fall of the 
government and setting the stage for the election. 
 
¶3.  The fall of the MacDonald government came as no surprise. 
The Premier and his Tory party have been clinging to power since 
the June 2006 election when they failed to capture a clear 
majority.  It has only survived thus far with the support of 
either the Official Opposition New Democratic Party or the 
third-place Liberals.  The standings in the 52-seat House show 
the precarious state of the government leading up to its 
collapse:  the Tories had 21 seats, the New Democrats had 20 and 
the third-place Liberals had nine.  There was one independent 
and one seat was vacant. 
 
¶4.  COMMENT:  The ensuing campaign is expected to be a 
hard-fought affair, focused primarily on the state of the 
economy and which of the three parties the electorate deems most 
capable to guide the province through tough economic times.  All 
three parties have big hopes going into this campaign.  As was 
the case in 2006, Premier MacDonald will be looking for a clear 
majority; NDP leader Darrell Dexter will be hoping to make 
history by forming the first-ever NDP government east of 
Ontario; and Stephen McNeil, leader of the third-place Liberals, 
will be anxious to prove himself a credible leader by 
orchestrating the addition of new seats for his party. Local 
contacts expect that the end result will be yet another minority 
government, which has been the norm since 2003. 
 
¶5.  U.S. INTERESTS:  Each of the major parties attaches great 
importance to issues of interest to the United States: 
fostering bilateral trade, increasing energy exports to the 
United States, and working cooperatively with the federal 
government on secure border issues.  Consequently, we do not 
anticipate any significant changes in those areas of interest 
regardless which party emerges the victor on June 9. 
 
¶6.  Post will report any significant developments of U.S. 
interest that emerge as this campaign unfolds.  END COMMENT. 
 
FOSTER