VZCZCXRO7113
RR RUEHAO
DE RUEHAO #0040 1381540
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 181540Z MAY 09
FM AMCONSUL CURACAO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2272
INFO RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 0281
RHMFIUU/DAVIS MONTHAN AFB AZ
RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL
RHMFIUU/JIATF SOUTH
RUEABND/DEA SAN JUAN PR
RUEABND/DEA HQS WASHDC
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0424
RUEHAO/AMCONSUL CURACAO 3280

UNCLAS CURACAO 000040 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR  FOR CA AND WHA\CAR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: NA AA NL PGOV ECON EFIN MARR SNAR
SUBJECT: SLIM "YES" WIN IN MAY 15 REFERENDUM SHOWS DIVIDED ISLAND 
 
REF: A) CURACAO 000012; B) CURACAO 000032; C) CURACAO 000038 
 
¶1. (U) NARROW MARGIN OF VICTORY:  According to preliminary 
results, the "YES" vote won Friday's referendum with 52 percent 
of the vote compared to 48 percent for "NO", a narrow margin 
reflecting divided support for the Netherlands Antilles 
dissolution agreement (reftels).  Turnout was higher than last 
election, with over 10,000 more votes cast.  41,398 voted "YES" 
and 38,363 voted "NO".  This is almost the same margin as the 
2007 parliamentary elections (51 to 49 percent).  The vote was 
peaceful and orderly with no significant incidents.    Island 
Governor Lisa Dindial said the final official results will be 
announced on Wednesday, 20 May 2009. 
 
¶2. (U) Antilles Prime Minister Emily de Jongh-Elhage said that 
the voters have made their decision and the governing coalition 
will move forward with dissolution as planned. She acknowledged 
that steps must be taken to reach a broader consensus on how to 
proceed.  With $1.7 billion in debt relief assured by a "YES" 
win, the coalition had expected a larger victory, despite recent 
indications that the race was tightening.  Opposition MAN party 
leader Charles Cooper said that he respects the vote, "but you 
can not ignore 48 percent of the voters and we believe the 
(dissolution) process must be stopped." 
 
¶3. (U) Local media report that Dutch State Secretary for Kingdom 
Relations Ank Bijleveld said the process will continue and that 
the opposition should accept PM De Jongh-Elhage's offer to 
"harmonize." Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende is quoted 
as welcoming the referendum outcome and said he is pleased that 
the dissolution can continue. 
 
¶4. (U) OPPOSITION PLAYS UP RACE AND ETHNICITY:  Opposition 
Leader Cooper said that votes by Dutch and "immigrants" made the 
difference and asked "should they be able to decide the future 
of our people?"   Cooper also cited the "YES" spending advantage 
(estimated 1.9 million USD vs. 900,000) as a key factor.  Nelson 
Navarro of the opposition FK party said "we lost to the 
capitalists who scared people with a jobless future."  An 
overwhelming majority of business leaders and "European Dutch 
whites" supported "YES", while the majority of descendants of 
less advantaged Curacao families voted "NO". 
 
¶5. (SBU) "YES" campaigners claim to have seen people being paid 
about $30 each to vote against the referendum, and wonder where 
the Opposition got its funding (comment: most suspect from 
Venezuela. End comment) They admit, however, that the governing 
coalition's positive message did not penetrate to all sectors of 
society. They recognize that they will need to show benefits to 
people's lives directly if they hope to win the next election. 
Various sources also noted that there have been no incidents 
reported regarding the Smartmatic voting machines (ref. C), but 
that they are still checking the paper ballots against the 
electronic results. All sides seem to agree that, overall, the 
process was free, transparent and democratic. 
 
¶6. (U) DISSOLUTION DELAY POSSIBLE: In reaction to Curacao's 
referendum, Dutch State Secretary Bijleveld-Schouten has 
reportedly suggested moving the dissolution date back one year 
to January 2011.  PM De Jongh-Elhage wants to continue with the 
January 2010 target date. Early indications are that one more 
round of Antilles Parliament elections might be required, 
possibly in January 2010, to bridge the gap to whatever date is 
determined for final dissolution. The timing depends in part on 
the ability of the relevant legislative bodies to approve the 
needed legislation. 
 
DUNN