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Viewing cable 09VIENTIANE179, IMF LOWERS ESTIMATE OF 2009 LAO GDP GROWTH TO 4.5%

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09VIENTIANE179 2009-04-10 06:48 2011-08-30 01:44 UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Embassy Vientiane
VZCZCXRO5042
RR RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHVN #0179 1000648
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 100648Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY VIENTIANE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2543
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
UNCLAS VIENTIANE 000179 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/MLS 
TREASURY FOR SUSAN CHUN 
COMMERCE FOR HPPHO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV PREL LA
SUBJECT: IMF LOWERS ESTIMATE OF 2009 LAO GDP GROWTH TO 4.5% 
 
REF: 08 VIENTIANE 202 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: On March 11 a visiting IMF team told a 
donor group that the IMF now projects 2009 Lao GDP growth at 
4.5%, down from about 7% in 2008, due primarily to slowdowns 
in mining, hydropower, and construction.  The budget deficit 
is expected to increase from 2% to 5% of GDP; the Government 
of Laos (GOL) is neither planning to request IMF assistance 
nor to borrow on international capital markets to close this 
gap.  Although the kip is expected to depreciate slightly 
against the dollar, inflation remains moderate.  The IMF team 
suggested the Bank of Laos (BOL) needs to slow credit growth, 
and urged the government to recognize on budget land swaps 
used to finance the South East Asia (SEA) Games this 
December.  The team's visit was to prepare the IMF's 2009 
Outlook for Laos, scheduled for release in April.  End Summary 
 
2.  (SBU) An IMF team of David Cowen (team leader), Susan 
Baker (senior economist), and Ben Bingham (senior resident 
representative), was in Laos March 9-11 researching the 2009 
IMF Outlook for Laos.  The team briefed interested donors 
March 11.  The IMF's current 2009 real GDP growth projection 
for Laos is 4.5%, below its own late 2008 projection of 5.75% 
and 2.5% below 2008's GDP growth of "about 7%."  The IMF team 
said it sees little sign of recovery in the global economy 
and expects 2010 economic growth in Laos to be "challenging." 
 Sectors such as mining and hydropower, large draws for 
foreign direct investment (FDI) in recent years, are no 
longer booming.  While mining output is steady, investment 
has essentially stopped.  The hydropower sector is expected 
to weaken considerably in the medium term, although the 
beginning of commercial operations at the Nam Theun II dam at 
the end of 2009/beginning of 2010 will provide a boost to 
GDP.  Although remittances have fallen, tourism appears to be 
holding up, possibly due to Laos' reputation as an affordable 
destination.  A general slowdown in construction will also 
act as a drag on the Lao economy.  Although preparations for 
the SEA Games in December 2009 will provide some support, 
much of the large scale construction for these events is 
almost finished (and was in any case done primarily by 
Chinese laborers.) 
 
3.  (SBU) The global slowdown is translating into a 2008-2009 
government deficit now projected at 5% of GDP (6.5% if grants 
are excluded), up from 2% in 2007-2008.  The Lao GDP is 
estimated at $5 billion.  According to the IMF, the GOL is 
currently neither pursuing external borrowing nor requesting 
IMF assistance.  Expectations are that the GOL will first 
seek out additional donor assistance to help close the gap, 
then draw down its foreign exchange reserves.  The 2009-2010 
budget deficit could be even larger, as projected profits 
from mining taxes have fallen sharply as well.  Expectations 
are that the recurrent budget, scheduled to grow by 50% in 
2008-2009, will be cut.  The capital budget, supported 
recently by BOL direct lending to local authorities for 
infrastructure projects, also faces cuts. 
 
4.  (SBU) Despite the large projected budget deficit and 
slowing economy, the IMF expects the kip to depreciate only 
slightly against the dollar in 2009.  Inflation has remained 
moderate, helped by a strong kip and the collapse in oil 
prices.  According to Mr. Cowen, the IMF urged the BOL to 
slow credit growth, which has risen substantially in the past 
year.  His team also raised the issue of SEA Games financing, 
noting that the government should recognize on budget land 
swaps used to finance the SEA Games.  (ref a)  The IMF will 
return in mid-May with a larger team for the annual Article 
IV consultations. 
 
5.  (SBU) COMMENT:  The GOL continues to proclaim a goal of 
8% economic growth in 2009, an increasingly unlikely target. 
Aware that the global slowdown is hitting some of its largest 
taxpayers hard, it has begun to work with major investors 
such as Phu Bia Mining, taking action on long-requested items 
to support and ease continued business operations in Laos. 
As yet few donors have shown much appetite for providing 
additional budget support to the GOL, and anecdotal tales of 
aid drying up are now circulating.  Although copper prices 
have risen about 42% in 2009, to around $4,000 a ton, they 
remain some 50% below their 2008 highs, and the copper mines 
are unlikely to deliver the revenue bonanza the GOL needs to 
bring its budget closer to balance.  END COMMENT. 
HUSO