VZCZCXRO6304
PP RUEHAST RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHPB RUEHPOD RUEHTM RUEHTRO
DE RUEHRN #0029/01 1121629
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 221628Z APR 09
FM USMISSION UN ROME
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1086
INFO RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC
RUEHC/USAID WASHDC
RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE
RUEHRN/USMISSION UN ROME 1156

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 UN ROME 000029 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID EAGR SOCI PHUM FAO UN
SUBJECT: ONE BILLION NOT SERVED:  HOW THE UN FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 
ORGANIZATION AND U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNT THE HUNGRY 
 
UN ROME 00000029  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  According to separate studies published in 2008 by the U.S. 
Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the UN's  Food and 
Agriculture Organization (FAO), there are approximately one 
billion hungry, or "food insecure," people in the world.  Both 
organizations have since predicted that this number will likely 
rise during 2009.  This cable is intended to provide background 
on the methodology used to calculate this figure, and describe 
the inherent challenges involved in trying to reach precise 
figures.  A better understanding of the statistical shortcomings 
associated with this work may help target our policies more 
effectively to address global food security issues.  End Summary 
 
Hunger Statistics - The "SOFI" 
------------------- 
 
¶2.  In June 2008, FAO released its latest edition of 'The State 
of Food Insecurity in the World (SOFI)' which calculated that 
923 million people in 112 developing countries were food 
insecure - an increase of 75 million over the last usable data 
set collected in 2002.  The USDA's 2007 'Food Security 
Assessment,' by comparison (published in 2008), estimated that 
982 million people in 70 countries were food insecure - an 
increase of 133 million over the same time period.  In these 
reports, "food insecure" refers to the absence of stable, 
readily-available access to the required daily caloric intake. 
These reports cite rising food prices, the global economic 
downturn, demands for biofuel, production and distribution 
shortfalls, ongoing armed conflicts, and climate change as 
causes for these increases. 
 
¶3.  Political figures often cite the one billion figure in 
calling for increased global attention to food security issues. 
FAO Director General Jacques Diouf frequently uses this estimate 
to draw attention to the issue and is currently using the figure 
to seek support for a proposed summit on food security in 
November, 2009.  He recently used the figure in a Financial 
Times interview, and in recent correspondence with world leaders 
seeking support for his summit proposal.  What is rarely 
debated, or closely examined, however, is the specific 
methodology behind the hunger figures.  There are a number of 
ways to calculate world food insecurity, none being an exact 
science. 
 
The 2008 SOFI 
------------ 
 
¶4.  The SOFI estimates the total number of people who are 
considered chronically food insecure in a given year, extracting 
the median from a three-year data set.  The SOFI is printed 
annually, although 2002 data had been recylced up to the 2008 
report, at which time FAO used new methods for counting caloric 
intake.  There was also a six-year pause of new population data 
collection between 2002 and 2008 while the UN Population 
Division developed new population estimation methods, which were 
released in 2006.  The 2008 SOFI estimated that 923 million 
people were food insecure in 112 developing countries. 
Following a revision of the 2002 estimate to 848 million, the 
figures show a nearly nine percent increase in the number of 
hungry people over this six year period. 
 
FAO Methodologies 
--------------- 
 
¶5.  To reach their hunger figure, FAO starts with an estimate of 
the total amount of food in a country for the time frame, taking 
into account food production, food stocks, external food aid 
received, and imports.  From these estimates, FAO determines the 
total amount of calories available in a country.  FAO then 
ascertains the availability of food by determining the 
purchasing power of the population - figuring how many people 
can afford to procure their daily food needs.  The input for 
this comes from FAO-designed surveys of caloric intake and 
incomes, which are administered by host governments.  An average 
per capita calorie availability is calculated, then surveys are 
used to find who falls below the average income rate, calorie 
consumption rate, and food accessibility.  The people at the 
lowest end of the scale, those who consume less than the minimal 
daily energy requirement (MDER) of 1,800 calories, are 
considered food insecure.  In addition to this number, access to 
calories that are essential rather than empty (i.e., 
'nutritious'), is also calculated to find how many people do not 
have access to minimal nutrients for a healthy diet and - 
considered 'undernourished.' 
 
¶6.  The methods to collect and analyze data used by FAO have 
been criticized by the U.S. Government Accountability Office 
(GAO) and USDA. In May 2008, GAO published at the request of 
 
UN ROME 00000029  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
Senators Feingold and Voinovich, and Representative Payne, a 
report, `International Food Security; Insufficient Efforts by 
Host Governments and Donors Threaten Progress to Halve Hunger in 
Sub-Saharan Africa by 2015.' (ref GAO-08-06, May 2008)   In this 
report, GAO does not dispute that food insecurity is rising, but 
does note shortfalls in FAO's methodologies.  Likewise, in its 
2007 Food Security Assessment USDA criticized FAO's data inputs. 
 
 
¶7.  The lack of reliability in the final number stems from 
issues found in the data surveys, and statistical methodology. 
The surveys FAO relies upon are submitted by national 
governments, which may over- or under-report data on food 
stocks, income, and caloric consumption, depending on internal 
politics, how much aid they desire, or the public face they wish 
to present.  For countries that do not submit a data survey, or 
for which obtaining one is politically difficult, FAO estimates 
externally the data for those countries as a group.  This can 
lead to inaccurate input for the group, as data is lumped 
together and estimated for some countries to which a substantial 
amount of food aid has been delivered, i.e., Afghanistan, Iraq, 
and Somalia.  Thus, in come cases substantial amounts of food 
aid is not accurately represented in the statistics.  In 
addition, the three-year timeframe also misses short-term 
impacts on food security such as wars, price spikes, and 
droughts. 
 
¶8.  FAO calculates caloric intake as an average across an entire 
country and does not take into account distribution of food or 
incomes.  An urban center often has better food accessibility 
and higher incomes than rural areas, inflating the national 
averages and missing the rural poor.  In addition, averaging 
food availability distorts problems with nutrition distribution; 
certain foods and types of nutrients may not be available across 
an entire country, leaving some people with enough calories to 
be over the MDER line, but without proper nutrition. This leads 
to underestimation of both food insecurity and undernourishment 
in countries with adequate food available in some places but 
inadequate distribution networks. 
 
¶9.  In 2006, the UN and FAO revised their global and 
country-specific population estimates. The new population 
estimates, with large increases in Asia, especially in China and 
India, increased the 2008 population estimates.  These new 
population numbers, along with the revised caloric measurements, 
increased the number of food insecure people in 2008.  At the 
same time, the changes decreased the number of food insecure for 
2002 and 1998 -  estimations which were based on outdated and 
less-complete data from those years.  While the method is more 
sound now, these revisions led to a 75 million food-insecure 
spike over the past few years and raises questions about what 
the trend would have looked like had the methods been in place 
years ago. 
 
USDA Food Security Assessment - 2007 
-------------------------- 
 
¶10.  In its `Food Security Assessment, 2007,' USDA estimated a 
total of 982 million as food insecure in 70 countries - an 
increase of 133 million.  This is a higher total number and 
percentage increase than FAO (with a smaller number of countries 
comprising the base data).  USDA's figure primarily reflects a 
higher MDER of 2,100 calories than FAO's 1,800.  Besides the 
higher MDER, however, there are other differences between the 
two methodologies. 
 
USDA Methodologies 
----------------- 
 
¶11.  USDA takes information on commodity prices and land use in 
a country, adds it to FAO data on fertilizer, labor, and 
technology use to create an estimation called food production. 
This is then added to information from other sources regarding 
capital inflow, exports, food aid, and food import prices to 
create a total consumption number for a country; essentially 
estimating how many calories are available in a country and how 
available they are to people.  Then the total number of calories 
needed for a country is determined based on population size 
times a 2,100 calorie requirement (300 calories higher than 
FAO's 1,800).  The countrywide calorie requirement, minus the 
calories available divided by the population, equals the 
estimation of per capita food gap.  The gap is then used to 
estimate the number of food insecure people.  This is further 
applied to income distribution numbers to find the number of 
hungry people according to income levels. 
 
¶12.  USDA measures and revises these numbers annually, and 
factors in both chronic and emergency food insecurity.  They 
base their estimates on the preliminary information for the 
year, then revise the estimates when they receive actual 
 
UN ROME 00000029  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
numbers.  This allows USDA to take into account short-term 
causes of food insecurity, including droughts, economic shocks, 
and conflicts.  The FAO estimate, on the other hand, is based on 
data averaged over three years, and represents what it calls 
chronic food insecurity. 
 
¶13.  The USDA relies upon FAO's caloric intake surveys provided 
by governments and which may contain incomplete or inaccurate 
data.  However, to guard against shortcomings, USDA trims the 
FAO list from 112 countries to 70, and focuses on the lowest 
income counties for which data is available and which are 
recipients of U.S. food aid.  In addition, USDA uses net capital 
inflow, exports, distribution, aid donations, and food import 
data from multiple sources including USAID, NGOs, the World Bank 
and the IMF, to create overall food availability data for a 
country, rather than relying solely on FAO surveys. 
 
Conclusion 
--------- 
 
¶14.  No one doubts the number of food insecure people is rising, 
and will continue to do so in the near-term.  Nonetheless, an 
estimation is far from an exact science, and will only be as 
good as the data used in its preparation.  Clearly, improvements 
can be made to strengthen data collection methods and training, 
an effort which some countries and organizations are already 
undertaking.  In 2008, the Gates Foundation pledged $5.6 million 
over two years to help 17 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa 
improve their statistics-collection and data on population and 
food, including Ethiopia, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Mozambique, 
Nigeria, and Rwanda.  In addition, FAO and USDA are undertaking 
a partnership to produce a joint SOFI in 2009, which may help 
strengthen both estimations further.  Better information 
gathering should lead to more reliable numbers and, in turn, 
more effective programs. 
BRUDVIGLA