VZCZCXRO7932
RR RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHSH #0073/01 1140318
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 240318Z APR 09
FM AMCONSUL SHENYANG
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8696
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC 0174
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SHENYANG 000073 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2019 
TAGS: CH ECON PGOV PINR
SUBJECT: LIAONING LEADERSHIP: DALIAN ON THE RISE 
 
REF: 08 SHENYANG 44 
 
Classified By: Consul General Stephen B. Wickman.  Reasons 1.4(b/d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In the two years since Li Keqiang was 
plucked from his Party Secretary (PS) post in Shenyang for 
greater glory in Beijing, no one has been able to fill the 
void he left behind in Liaoning Province.  Two major 
competitors continue to jockey for Provincial leadership - 
Governor Chen Zhenggao and Dalian Mayor Xia Deren.  With the 
exception of Mayor Xia,s imminent move to the Dalian Party 
Secretary slot, however, there have been few recent 
developments.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (C) This is the first of a two-part report on leadership 
dynamics in northeast China over the past year, with a 
particular emphasis on rising stars likely bound for higher, 
possibly national, office.  Part one focuses on Liaoning, 
part two on Jilin and Heilongjiang Provinces. 
 
LIAONING,S CENTRAL LEADERS 
-------------------------- 
¶3. (C) Liaoning Party Secretary (PS) Zhang Wenyue is 65 
years old and likely to retire later this year.  During his 
tenure, Zhang generally avoided the spotlight, perhaps in an 
effort to enjoy his sunset years as a senior member of the 
National People,s Congress.  He has always been overshadowed 
by stars Li Keqiang and more recently, Chen Zhenggao. 
 
¶4. (C) Chen Zhenggao captured the governorship in early 2008 
after vanquishing rival Luo Lin.  Throughout the past year, 
Chen has eagerly hogged the media limelight and 
enthusiastically advertised his accomplishments.  Chen 
prides himself on bringing investors into Liaoning, leading 
delegation after delegation to Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hong 
Kong, and beyond, pursuing signing ceremonies in the 
billions of RMB and exhausting the municipal players he 
drags in his wake.  Sometimes, however, Chen fails to 
deliver.  Most recently, during a trip to Japan, Chen crowed 
about attracting mega-yen investments in the news, only to 
return empty-handed, sparking a raft of satirical blog 
entries.  In the past few weeks, there has even been a spate 
of rumors (apparently untrue) that Chen and his bodyguard 
were under investigation.  Chen is clearly angling for the 
Liaoning PS position, and in late 2008 was rumored to have a 
shot at the Henan PS slot.  Chen will probably stay put a 
while longer, and at age 57 he has eight years to make it to 
the top. 
 
¶5. (C) Former Liaoning Deputy PS Luo Lin had gone head to 
head with Chen Zhenggao for the governorship.  As a 
consolation prize, Luo was appointed Chairman of the 
Liaoning People,s Political Consultative Conference (PPCC), 
keeping him on an equal footing with Chen Zhenggao in 
administrative and party rank.  Luo was appointed Director 
of the State Administration of Production Safety at the end 
of 2008, a central government ministerial position described 
by our contacts as a purely lateral move (a provincial 
governorship is equivalent to a minister.)  Although Luo's 
new position is described as an "active volcano" and its 
directors have been routinely criticized for the large 
number of fatal accidents in China - one just yesterday in 
Shenyang - its leaders have always been promoted.  With 
Luo,s China Youth League (CYL) Party background and 
experience in Liaoning,s mining cities like Huludao and 
Fushun, he is likely to succeed and capture more national 
attention. 
 
¶6. (C) Yue Fuhong, 59, moved to Liaoning to replace Luo from 
Inner Mongolia in late 2008.  Already designated Chairman of 
the Liaoning PPCC before the Conference opened, Yue,s 
election was a mere formality.  Also for form,s sake, Yue 
was pulled at the last minute from the obligatory annual 
meeting with the assembled Consuls General here before the 
opening ceremony, appearing for the first time on the dais 
during the Plenary Session.  A seasoned cadre from Beijing 
and Inner Mongolia, Yue was Beijing Vice Mayor between 1997 
and 2001 (responsible for agriculture and Huai Ro District) 
and Deputy PS of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region 
between 2001 and 2008.  His political career has been stable 
and gradual, a typical example of a Chinese bureaucrat 
working his way up the political hierarchy. 
 
¶7. (C) When we finally met Yue for dinner on April 23, he 
made it sound as if he had just landed in Liaoning. 
Determined not to discuss his new position at all and 
speaking in a thick Beijing accent that was impenetrable at 
times, Yue regaled us with tales of Inner Mongolia and 
Genghis Khan that he heard (in Chinese from his Mongolian 
staff.)  He seemed most proud of the joint-venture movie 
being shot on location, which he personally discussed with 
 
SHENYANG 00000073  002 OF 002 
 
 
Governor Schwarzenegger when he visited California.  Yue's 
family remains in Beijing (his daughter is a Tsinghua grad 
pursuing a career in architecture or design,) and he seems 
destined to reunite with them in Beijing following this 
latest promotion.  With six years left before retirement and 
a relatively youthful appearance, Yue has plenty of time to 
burnish his image or play behind-the-scene politics. 
 
DALIAN,S MAYOR ON THE MOVE 
-------------------------- 
¶8. (C) The biggest news this year is Dalian Mayor Xia 
Deren,s almost certain promotion to the Dalian PS position. 
The Changxingdao PS told the Consul General April 15 that 
Liaoning Vice Governor Li Wancai (a frequent consulate 
contact) would take over as Mayor when Xia steps up - news 
that was corroborated by the Japanese Consul General in 
Dalian the next day.  The move is interesting since Xia had 
been overshadowed by former Dalian PS Sun Chunlan and 
current Dalian PS Zhang Chengyin since Bo Xilai,s departure 
from Liaoning.  After Bo,s failed attempt to join the 
central party core, Mayor Xia lost his membership in the 
Liaoning Party Standing Committee.  A Dalian native and 
close pal of the popular Bo, Xia remains deeply loved by 
most of the citizens of Dalian (we have only heard one 
serious rumor about Xia and his link to an unpopular real 
estate deal.)  Only 54 years old, Xia has six years to make 
it to clear the deputy-governor level, at which he has been 
stuck despite his popularity, and a few years to climb even 
higher.  Xia's promotion to Dalian PS may be just what he 
needs to get rolling. 
 
¶9. (C) In other news, former Shenyang Vice Mayor Li Jia,s 
resignation was accepted by the Liaoning People,s Congress 
on January 8, 2009.  Information shows that Li Jia has since 
moved to Inner Mongolia as the Director of the Organization 
Department and Member of the Party Standing Committee. 
Although this is a lateral move to a more remote region, 
Li's return to the party faithful is a guarantee of a future 
stability. Rumors involving Shenyang PS Zeng Wei,s move to 
the Central Government as Li Keqiang,s chief of staff proved 
to be ill-founded.  Zeng also has a CYL background and it is 
reasonable to predict he will keep moving up the political 
ladder.  Our South Korean counterparts tell us that Zeng has 
an excellent relationship with Korean lawmaker and National 
Assembly Foreign Affairs, Trade, and Unification Committee 
Chair Park Jin, who caroused with Zeng during a recent March 
visit to Shenyang just before Park was indicted back in Seoul. 
WICKMAN