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C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000298 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS 
TAGS: PGOV KPLS OAS EC
SUBJECT: COUNTDOWN TO ELECTIONS; PRESIDENT'S RACE FOREGONE 
CONCLUSION 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Heather Hodges for reason 1.4 (D) 
 
¶1. (SB...



id: 204247
date: 4/27/2009 12:09
refid: 09QUITO298
origin: Embassy Quito
classification: CONFIDENTIAL
destination: 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000298 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS 
TAGS: PGOV KPLS OAS EC
SUBJECT: COUNTDOWN TO ELECTIONS; PRESIDENT'S RACE FOREGONE 
CONCLUSION 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Heather Hodges for reason 1.4 (D) 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  With four days remaining before the April 
26 elections, President Correa sits comfortably ahead of all 
other candidates, with polls showing him with enough votes 
for a first-round win.  Recently arrived international 
election observation teams have reported concern with how the 
lack of regulation of government propaganda has played to the 
favor of the incumbent government; however, fraud on election 
day is unlikely.  Overall, the presidential campaign has been 
lackluster, with little real debate (face to face or 
otherwise) on policy issues.  Key outcomes to watch are the 
size of Correa's margin, and the National Assembly and Quito 
mayoral race results.  End Summary. 
 
LAST-MINUTE BLUNDER AND CAMPAIGN ADJUSTMENTS 
 
¶2. (SBU) Three opposition political parties were omitted in 
sample city council ballots for Ecuador's largest city of 
Guayaquil on the Sunday preceding the elections.  The party 
lists missing were the New Option movement, the Patriotic 
Society Party, and most notably, Guayaquil mayor and leading 
candidate Jaime Nebot's Social Christian Party and Warrior 
Material Movement alliance.  The National Electoral Council 
took responsibility for the error and the ballot was 
reprinted in El Universo, the newspaper in which the faulty 
ballot was originally published.  However, the reprinted 
sample ballot appeared in a small space on an inside page of 
the newspaper, while a GOE advertisement praising the 
government,s stewardship of the economy took up the 
prominent back page of the paper. 
 
¶3. (SBU) On April 16, the National Electoral Council 
announced that Correa would be prohibited from transmitting 
his weekly radio and TV address the Saturday before 
elections, in accordance with electoral rule that no 
candidate may make public appearances, or activities with 
"proselytizing" characteristics between April 23 and 27. 
This is on the heels of a National Electoral Council decision 
in late March to fine Correa $650 for criticizing his 
presidential opponents during his weekly public address and 
its threat to suspend the programs completely if he made any 
more references to other candidates.  After a public exchange 
of critical words with the Council, Correa and his Proud and 
Sovereign Fatherland (PAIS) movement submitted an official 
appeal to the Electoral Disputes Tribunal on April 6, and 
Correa at least avoided referring to his opponents by name 
during his April 11 address.  The appeal, along with the 
March 12 appeal of the "Hey Jude" fine, is still awaiting a 
ruling from the Tribunal. 
 
NEW VOTERS EFFECT 
 
¶4. (SBU) New segments of the population, totaling almost one 
million of 10.5 million voters expected overall, will be 
given the opportunity to vote in the elections as mandated by 
the new constitution.  Youth between the ages of 16 and 18, 
Ecuadorians residing outside of Ecuador, foreigners residing 
legally within Ecuador, military and police, and inmates 
still awaiting sentences are entitled to go to the polling 
booths for the first time on April 26.  Although not 
obligatory, over half a million youths were registered, 
followed by 185,000 external Ecuadorians, nearly 100,000 
military and police officers, over 80,000 non-Ecuadorians 
with at least five years of legal residence in the country, 
and 2,700 inmates.  The local NGO, Citizen Participation has 
expressed concern with potential voting bias among youths, 
whose voter education was suspected to be influenced by the 
leftist teachers' union, and the military and police, whose 
independence from the government has been questioned in light 
of recent increases in their government benefits. 
 
POLLS IN CORREA'S FAVOR 
 
¶5. (SBU) According to all three major polls, Correa has the 
necessary 40% of the total votes, plus 10% more than the 
runner-up, to win the presidency in the first round.  Since 
release of polling data was forbidden starting 20 days before 
the election, the latest published data is from late March 
and early April.  At that time, Correa continued to lead the 
next closest presidential candidate by 32, 39 and 41 points, 
according to polling firms Market, CEDATOS and Santiago 
Perez, respectively, and hovered around the 50% total vote 
mark by all three.  It is likely that Correa will cinch the 
Presidency in the first round, with former president Lucio 
Gutierrez and banana tycoon Alvaro Noboa trailing far behind. 
 
 
PRESIDENTIAL WIN, BUT NOT A CLEAN SWEEP 
 
¶6. (SBU) Unlike the expected PAIS presidential victory, 
National Assembly seats and local offices continue to be 
hotly contested.  According to pollster Santiago Perez's data 
from April 5, PAIS is slated to win a slight majority within 
the legislature (53%), but not enough to block the opposition 
from taking initial actions to remove cabinet members.  This 
outcome would mark a significant decrease from the 61% of 
assembly seats they currently hold in the temporary 
legislature.  PAIS's showing in the CEDATOS poll from March 
22 is much lower, with only 30%, but 46% undecided. 
 
¶7. (SBU) At the municipal level, running as part of Correa's 
PAIS movement has not necessarily proven to be the golden 
ticket for local PAIS candidates.  The race for the mayor of 
Quito continues to be one of the closest, with the PAIS 
candidate Augusto Barrera edging out Antonio Ricaurte 38% to 
29% and 31% to 27%, according to Market and CEDATOS 
respectively.  Current mayor of Guayaquil Jaime Nebot 
continues to enjoy a comfortable lead, with nearly 70% of the 
vote.  In the province of El Oro where Correa has a 63% 
approval rating, the PAIS mayoral candidate for the 
provincial capital only has 20% support, compared to the 
opposition candidate's 70%. 
 
CONCERNS SURFACE FROM PRE-ELECTION OBSERVATION 
 
¶8. (SBU) The two principal international observation missions 
by the European Union and the Organization of American States 
have both expressed concerns during the pre-election week 
with the limited training and resources for the new and 
controversial intermediate counting centers (juntas 
intermedias).  Another major issue raised has been the lack 
of clarity in the electoral public finance legislation that 
has allowed excessive usage of official government publicity. 
 One example occurred on the April 21 weekly public service 
announcement by the GOE which was essentially a 10-minute 
defense of the new criminal code that has been openly 
critized by the opposition in the latter half of the 
campaign.  According to Citizen Participation, Correa's 
official campaign has only spent $300,235 of publically 
financed election money as of April 17; however, the total 
amount of government publicity financed during the same 
period reached over $2 million dollars.  This corresponds to 
almost 2300 minutes of extra air time, or over four times the 
amount of the next highest air time of any presidential 
candidate. 
 
¶9. (SBU) USG support for this year's election totals over 
half a million dollars.  The OAS mission received $225,000 
from the USOAS, and there will be nine U.S. Embassy and 
Consulate volunteer observers.  USAID is providing a total of 
$269,000 of technical assistance to the GOE National 
Electoral Council to implement a country-wide 
voters-with-disabilities campaign and to the Electoral 
Disputes Tribunal to increase their institutional capacity 
through trainings and operational support.  The major 
domestic observation effort by USAID-supported NGO Citizen 
Participation, will have 8,000 observers in all 24 provinces 
to monitor election-day proceedings.  Citizen Participation 
will also conduct a quick count of the presidential and 
assembly races that will be produced parallel to the official 
GOE count. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶10. (C) A combination of election fatigue and universal 
acceptance of another four years of a Correa presidency has 
made for an uninteresting election at the national level. 
The lack of new ideas amongst the other presidential 
hopefuls, or any sincere attempt to address issues of 
concern, has left the Ecuadorian electorate with no 
alternative to the status quo.  The local campaign races have 
proven to be more dynamic, and it is likely that any 
substantial opposition to a future Correa administration will 
come from local government leaders. 
HODGES 

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