VZCZCXRO3570
PP RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHYG
DE RUEHMZ #0090/01 1201544
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 301544Z APR 09
FM AMCONSUL MUNICH
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4748
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEU/EU INTEREST COLLECTIVE
RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000090 
 
USDA FOR FAS/OCRA/PORTER, FAS/OCRA/JONES, FAS/OSTA/NENON 
STATE FOR OES/ENV 
STATE PLEASE PASS USTR FOR JMURPHY, MCLARKSON 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON PGOV EAGR ETRD TBIO GM
SUBJECT: BAVARIAN CSU FLIRTS WITH BECOMING A CONSERVATIVE GREEN 
PARTY 
 
REF: BERLIN 447 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  In his first election test as leader of Bavaria's Christian 
Social Union (CSU) and in a bid to win back the CSU base or to 
attract new voters, Minister President Horst Seehofer has reversed 
earlier positions and come out strictly opposed to genetically 
engineered organisms. Although he is now accused of populist 
opportunism for jumping late on the band wagon, he hopes this will 
improve CSU chances in the elections to the European Parliament on 
June 7 and German Bundestag on September 27, a success the CSU needs 
to survive as an influential regional party.  It seems that the CSU 
leadership has calculated that losing support from the friends of 
the biotech in Bavaria is outweighed by possible gains from among 
emotional opponents to agricultural biotechnology.  The political 
leadership ignores science arguments that support biotechnology. 
The CSU's focus right now is clearly on Bavaria and on Bavaria 
alone.  Seehofer's team believes that rejection of genetically 
modified foodstuffs, as well as stem cell research and patents on 
animal breeding, reflect the will of the majority.  These positions 
have put the party at odds with Bavaria's world-class research 
community, with the coalition partner Christian Democratic Union 
(CDU), and with American business. End Summary. 
 
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CSU Loses Farmers' Support 
--------------------------- 
 
¶2.  Until recently, up to ninety percent of Bavarian farmers were 
loyal CSU supporters. Whether out of habit or conviction became less 
clear in the last years, we have been told repeatedly.  This changed 
in the 2008 state elections, where 50 percent of them deserted to 
the Independents led by Hubert Aiwanger, himself a farmer.  A recent 
poll by Infratest of 500 farmers revealed that the CSU could further 
lose its farming base, with only 23 percent of farmers polled saying 
they would vote for the CSU in upcoming elections.  Almost as many 
would vote for the Independents.  Analysts agree that these losses 
cannot be attributed to the early CSU support for green technology 
but rather to a long-growing sense that the old CSU has run its 
course.  Farmers are also angry about the very low wholesale price 
of milk, for which the CSU may also be blamed. 
 
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Agriculture Minister Aigner Caught in the Crossfire 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶3.  Aigner, one of the new young CSU faces, has flip-flopped over 
gene technology issues as the election campaign heats up.  She 
succumbed to Seehofer's political pressure and on April 14 banned 
the sowing of MON810, Monsanto's genetically engineered corn (a move 
since challenged by Monsanto in court, reftel). She was quoted as 
saying the decision "gave her a stomach ache," and this may be 
because she is a former Eurocopter engineer who understands the 
scientific approach better than the populist one.  Aigner said the 
decision was not "against green technology in general," but CSU 
party colleague and Bavarian Environment Minister, Markus Soeder, 
has, like Seehofer, urged prohibitions on all genetically modified 
plants.  Aigner also recently opposed a European patent application 
for a test to check pigs for a gene that makes them produce more 
meat.  Taking a different tack on April 27, Aigner resisted party 
pressure and permitted limited trials of the "Amflora" potato 
developed by BASF.  She said she did so after speaking with the 
experts and business people.  Seehofer "accepted" Aigner's decision 
but Soeder expressed his disappointment, commenting that this sent 
the wrong signal. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
Can Bavaria be a Zone Free of Gene Technology? 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶4.  Some of the most rabid opponents to GMOs in Bavaria are farmers 
in the Franconia region, near Wurzburg, where approved field trials 
are ongoing.  Another problem is the Rosenheim area, close to 
Aigner's own constituency, at the center of the CSU's Upper Bavarian 
heartland.  Here, an alliance by the name of "Civil Courage" has 
focused on the fight against GMOs, attracting an ever growing number 
 
MUNICH 00000090  002 OF 002 
 
 
of determined supporters, reportedly 31,000 so far.  The alliance 
has been able to mobilize traditional CSU voters, as they can be 
found in folklore groups ("Trachtenvereine"), shooting clubs, and 
Catholic communities, all of which emphasize the "integrity of 
creation."  Commentators note that the CSU is coming "late to the 
party" and may not win many points by adopting the anti-technology 
approach now.  It also might not help them with the CDU.  Federal 
Research Minister Annette Schavan (CDU) openly supports "green 
technology."  At a recent hearing on plant biotechnology, 
parliamentarians of the CDU and FDP adamantly opposed the ban of 
MON810 and requested political support for the technology.  However, 
Chancellor Merkel has not taken position on this topic. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
Scientists Fret over Bavaria's Lost Opportunities 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶5.  Bavaria may be the "high tech Mecca," according to Bill Gates, 
but there has been little public backlash against the CSU's anti-GMO 
positioning.  Leaders such as Science Minister Heubisch (FDP) or 
Munich Technical University President Wolfgang Herrmann have warned 
recently that "Bavaria could voluntarily forego a great chance to 
excel in a field where it was steadily building world-class 
expertise."  Other political parties long opposed to genetic 
engineering have accused the CSU of populist opportunism in a hard 
election year.  The SPD, the Greens and the Independents support a 
total ban of GMOs in Germany.  The chairman of the Independent 
Voters, Hubert Aiwanger, welcomed Aigner's ban of MON810 as 
"overdue" and called for halting field trials. The newly-elected 
chairperson of the Bavarian Young Socialists, Marietta Eder (SPD), 
who comes from Lower Franconia where most of the field trials are, 
adamantly rejects "green gene technology."  Even the Bavarian FDP 
welcomed the ban, concluding that "politics had to take the concerns 
of the people seriously." 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶6.  (SBU) The CSU is looking for traction by attacking genetic 
engineering, a reversal from earlier positions.  They are coming 
late to the issue, so there is a question whether the CSU can hold 
on to or win new voters by doing something that other major parties 
already can claim.  Our CSU contacts have privately confirmed that 
Seehofer's fierce anti-GMO stance is coming from apocalyptic fears 
of an election disaster on June 7, which in the worst case could 
lead to the CSU falling out of the European Parliament and to his 
being discredited as CSU leader.  With the Independents taking part 
in the EU elections, disenchanted farmers have a strong alternative 
to the CSU.  This, combined with an election falling during a 
holiday and low voter interest, could make it hard for the CSU to 
reach the five percent Germany-wide threshold it needs to get into 
the EU Parliament.  CSU contacts told us that despite some 
misgivings about its new course, the CSU feels it has no other 
choice but to do what the presumed majority of the people want, be 
it a clear rejection of GMOs, of nuclear power (which the CSU 
resists but carefully avoids to speak out on at this point), or stem 
cell research that alienates its Catholic followers. 
 
¶7.  (U) Consulate General Munich coordinated this report with 
Embassy Berlin and with the Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS). 
 
¶8.  (U) Track Munich reporting at 
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Germ any. 
 
TRAUB