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RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 2254

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 MUMBAI 000139 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL IN
SUBJECT: BHARAT BALLOT 09: SHIV SENA HEADS TO LOK SABHA, STATE 
ASSEMBLY POLLS 
 
REF: MUMBAI 130 
 
MUMBAI 00000139  001.2 OF 005 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (U) The durable Hindu chauvinist political party, the Shiv 
Sena is at a crucial point in its 43-year history.  Founded 
originally by the charismatic Bal Thackeray as an anti-migrant 
and pro-Marathi party, it has evolved into one of the anchors of 
the Hindu right.  Through a combination of demographic and 
economic change, succession questions, defections and splinter 
parties, ideological challenges and its own poor record in 
office, the Sena has arrived at a crossroads.  Recent electoral 
results point to the party's decline, but current leader Uddhav 
Thackeray is attempting to reach new vote banks and redefine the 
party in order to make gains in the upcoming Parliamentary and 
Maharashtra Legislative Assembly elections in the spring and 
fall of 2009, respectively.  As he leads the party into this 
election, Uddhav's challenges are to maintain a firm grip on the 
party, limit the damage caused by his cousin and rival's 
departure to set up his own party, and give the party a vision 
to match the changing nature of Maharashtra's electorate.  End 
summary. 
 
History and Ideology 
-------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Bal Thackeray founded the Shiv Sena in 1966, 
attracting educated Marathi-speaking, lower middle class youth 
by pledging to protect their economic and cultural interests at 
a time when Mumbai was fast becoming a cosmopolitan, diverse 
city.  (Note:  "Shiv Sena" can be loosely translated as 
Shivaji's soldiers.  Shivaji was a 17th century, devout Hindu 
military leader in modern-day Maharashtra who took on the Mughal 
ruler Aurangzeb to lay the foundations of the Maratha Empire. 
End Note.)  The Sena has an authoritarian structure centered on 
Thackeray, who expects complete obedience from his followers. 
The Sena appealed to unemployed disaffected youth eager to take 
back the streets through violence and intimidation.  The Sena 
has thrived on a regional sensibility, utilizing mass 
propaganda, tactical violence, the provision of social services 
and strike breaking to attract followers and effect its agenda. 
The Shiv Sena's strongest attraction may be the perception that 
it can provide benefits which the official machinery cannot. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The Sena's first platform was to insist on a simple but 
unworkable program:  the reservation of 80 percent of lower 
echelon white collar jobs and economic opportunities in 
Maharashtra for Maharashtrians, and those who speak Marathi, the 
fabled "Sons of the Soil."  To generate support and momentum, 
Thackeray initially targeted South Indians, since southerners 
occupied middle class white collar clerical positions, often 
encouraging his followers to use violence and intimidation. 
Despite occasional political accommodations with a variety of 
parties, the Sena has also been strongly anti-communist, and was 
used by the Congress and local industrialists to break the back 
of the communist labor unions in Mumbai in the 1970s and 1980s. 
Along with other Hindu right organizations and political 
parties, he has repeatedly opposed caste reservations, an 
unusual stance given the Sena's large "Other Backward Caste" 
(OBC) support base. 
 
¶4. (SBU) However, as the salience of the Marathi "Sons of the 
Soil" card faded in the 1970s and 1980s due to a changing 
economy and diminished Marathi demographics in Mumbai, the Shiv 
Sena turned increasingly to pro-Hindu and anti-Muslim themes in 
order to widen its base and reach out to other, mainly rural, 
parts of Maharashtra.  Thackeray maintained that Hinduism should 
be the dominant culture of India and adopted the BJP's slogan, 
"Say it with pride that I am Hindu."  The Sena showed its 
strength in the 1992-92 communal riots which shook Mumbai 
following the destruction of the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya in 
which over 900 people were killed in Mumbai, a majority Muslim. 
Thackeray encouraged his followers to attack Muslims and Muslim 
communities, and the Shiv Sainiks were protected in some 
instances by sympathetic police and government officials.  Many 
credit the Hindu-Muslim polarization after the riots with 
bringing a Shiv Sena/Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government in 
the state elections in 1995. 
 
 
MUMBAI 00000139  002.2 OF 005 
 
 
Electoral Map 
------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) In the Lok Sabha, the Shiv Sena currently holds 12 out 
of the 48 seats from Maharashtra.  In the upcoming Lok Sabha 
elections, the Sena will contest 22 seats and its partner, the 
BJP, will stand for the other 26.  In the Maharashtra 
Legislative Assembly, the BJP and Shiv Sena form the main 
opposition block.  Together, the two parties hold 116 (54 BJP, 
62 Sena) out of the total 288 seats.  New state elections are 
due in September/October 2009.  In Mumbai, where the BJP and 
Shiv Sena have ruled the city for the past 16 years, the two 
parties account for 112 of 227 municipal corporation seats. 
 
High Profile Defections and Succession Crisis Weaken Party 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Since 2005, the Shiv Sena has endured a series of key 
defections and a succession battle, all of which have weakened 
the party.  First, veteran Shiv Sena leader and former 
Maharashtra Chief Minister Narayan Rane broke with the party and 
eventually joined the rival Congress party.  According to 
interlocutors, Rane's dissatisfaction with the Sena had little 
to do with ideological or policy issues.  Instead, it was driven 
by a personality clash between Rane and Shiv Sena working 
president Uddhav Thackeray, the son of Bal Thackeray.  The 
second blow came in late 2005 with the defection of Raj 
Thackeray, Bal Thackeray's charismatic nephew.  Raj Thackeray 
formed his own party in 2006, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena 
(MNS), discussed septel.  Raj Thackeray cited his on-going 
frustrations with his cousin and long-standing rival, Uddhav, as 
his reason for leaving the party.  Calling his cousin an 
ineffectual leader surrounded by cronies, Raj Thackeray said his 
rival was responsible for Shiv Sena's poor showing in the 2004 
state elections, for the disastrous result in a 2005 by-election 
in Maharashtra and for several high profile defections. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The rivalry between Raj and Uddhav had been a 
long-simmering source of tension within Shiv Sena.  Bal 
Thackeray has dominated the Shiv Sena since its founding.  With 
a charismatic personality and florid rhetorical style, not to 
mention a keen sense of the dramatic, Thackeray was able to 
maintain the unquestioned loyalty of his Shiv Sainiks.  In 
recent years, Bal's health has deteriorated, and this may be his 
last election.  He has limited his involvement in 
decision-making and party activities, and he ceded nearly all 
day-to-day authority to Uddhav as executive president in 2002. 
However, many in the Sena viewed Uddhav Thackeray as an 
introverted, reclusive leader lacking in the political and 
leadership skills and charisma of his father or of his cousin 
Raj. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Beyond Uddhav and Raj, however, the Sena appears to 
have no strong leadership alternatives.  Bal's leadership style 
brooked little challenge to his authority and he often pushed 
rising popular leaders, such as Chhagan Bhujbal, out before they 
challenged him.  (Note: Bhujbal, a prominent OBC leader, 
defected to the Congress, then the Nationalist Congress Party 
(NCP), and is now the state deputy chief minister.  End Note.) 
Former state Shiv Sena Chief Minister Manohar Joshi has been 
largely relegated to a supporting role, after losing a Lok Sabha 
race in 2004.  According to interlocutors, Bal's failure to 
develop younger leaders or even mid-level party managers left a 
void in the party organization and weakened its long-term 
prospects. 
 
Uddhav Thackery Takes Charge 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Despite his uninspiring public image, many praise 
Uddhav for his strong organizational skills and sober 
leadership, and his attempts to expand the Sena's base. 
Thackeray was praised for fielding a fresh slate of candidates 
in the 2007 Mumbai municipal elections, which was undoubtedly a 
factor in the Sena's narrow victory.  Political observers agree 
that Thackeray cleansed the candidate list mainly to reward his 
closest supporters, yet he and the Shiv Sena astutely sold the 
action as a move to clean up the corporation.  According to 
Maharashtra Congress spokesman Anant Gadgil, while Uddhav is not 
 
MUMBAI 00000139  003.2 OF 005 
 
 
a natural orator, he is a good organizer and the seasoned 
leadership has stayed with the Sena; he added "Raj just has 
boys," the young, street-level operatives working for him at the 
MNS.  As Kishor Joshi of the NCP told Congenoffs, Uddhav has 
also tried to modernize the Sena by bringing more educated 
people into the fold and "growing the organization in a decent 
fashion."  For example, in 2008 he appointed Maharashtra Times 
Editor Bharat Raut to the Rajya Sabha in Delhi.  Raut claims 
that he was surprised at this honor, and surmised that the Sena 
wanted more educated and English-speaking parliamentarians who 
can represent the Sena in the more sophisticated parliamentary 
culture. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Though Uddhav and the leadership want to redefine the 
party and lessen its reputation for, and use of, violence, 
interlocutors told Congenoffs that Sainiks who constitute the 
bedrock of the Sena's support continue to press for "direct 
action," the Sena specialty.  The Sena has historically grown by 
attracting youth through displays of strength.  Now that the 
Sena under Uddhav has begun to devalue violence - perhaps 
because many of the roughest elements have left for the MNS - 
potential members may turn to other parties, according to 
Marathi journalist Nilu Damle.  In addition, observers expect 
that Uddhav will struggle to attract new followers in the 
absence of his father's charismatic presence.  Nevertheless, 
with his father still alive, Sena followers will likely continue 
to honor his wish that Uddhav lead the party.  As Damle pointed 
out, no one is left to challenge Uddhav within the Sena after 
the defections of Rane and Raj.  The 2007 city election result 
solidified his hold on the party and his aspiration to be the 
legitimate political heir to his father.  Damle commented, 
"Every day that the old man is alive, he solidifies Uddhav's 
position.  If he dies, say, more than a year from now, Uddhav 
would be a strong leader in his own right, and may not need the 
support of other senior leaders." 
 
Long Term Political and Demographic Shifts Challenge Sena's 
Future 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) The Shiv Sena is struggling publicly and privately 
with a number of other significant problems.  Former Shiv Sena 
leader Narayan Rane's huge victory over his Shiv Sena opponent 
in the November 2005 Malvan district by-election race for the 
state legislature appeared to have precipitated a fight over the 
direction of the party.  Few of Shiv Sena's current leaders have 
reliable contacts in the coastal Konkan region, and Rane's win, 
his dominance of politics in the Konkan, and his prominent 
position in the current Congress-NCP state government will make 
it difficult for Shiv Sena to maintain its control over the 
area, which was once an impregnable Shiv Sena bastion. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Broader political and cultural shifts, as well as 
changing local demographics, represent the greatest threat to 
Shiv Sena's long-term relevance as a political movement in 
Maharashtra.  The Shiv Sena's most significant electoral success 
was its victory in the 1995 Maharashtra state assembly 
elections, in part through its successful exploitation of the 
Hindutva (Hindu nationalism) message, in coalition with the BJP, 
following Hindu-Muslim communal violence in Mumbai in the early 
1990's.  The late 1990's, however, represented the apex of 
Hindutva's appeal to voters in Maharashtra, as development, 
governance, and other issues have also crowded the landscape of 
voter concerns.  Local BJP Vice President and Spokesperson Atul 
Shah told Congenoffs that the Maharashtra branch of his party 
"no longer talked about Hindutva that much," as economic and 
development issues played better with the electorate.  Without 
galvanizing events such as the 1992-93 Mumbai communal riots, 
Hindutva's ability to draw supporters will continue to be 
limited. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Even worse for Shiv Sena, the "Sons of the Soil" 
movement of Marathi speakers, the original driving force behind 
the party's creation, appear to be losing ground to demographic 
shifts.  When the Sena was founded in 1966, Marathi speakers 
made up about 40 percent of Mumbai's residents, but now 
represent about 22 percent.  Each year, more migrant laborers 
from elsewhere in India arrive, diluting the urban 
concentrations of Marathi speakers, and making it increasingly 
 
MUMBAI 00000139  004.2 OF 005 
 
 
difficult for the Sena to keep up with other broader-based 
parties.  In the rural, Marathi-speaking areas of Maharashtra 
where migrants are few, this issue has not gained much traction. 
 Indeed, Uddhav had begun to quietly court migrants from Uttar 
Pradesh and Bihar who make up large vote blocks in some 
constituencies around Mumbai when Raj Thackeray launched his 
attack on north Indian migrants (see septel).  Raj's astute 
political thrust added a new competitor for the pro-Marathi 
vote, and forced Uddhav to walk a fine line between assuring the 
migrants that they were safe in Maharashtra and appealing to his 
traditional pro-Marathi vote bank. 
 
¶14. (SBU) According to MP Raut, the Shiv Sena can only grow 
"where it can find and exploit fissures."  In a meeting with 
Congenoffs, Uddhav raised the possibility of reviving the 
decades-old controversy over Belgaum province, across the border 
in Karnataka border, where there is a large Marathi-speaking 
minority.  He said that the current BJP government in Karnataka 
has restricted the rights of Marathi speakers there, but 
admitted the demand for this district's inclusion in Maharashtra 
would obviously cause friction with the Sena's BJP alliance 
partners.  Raut told Congenoff that his party intends to 
campaign against Congress's record on preventing farmer suicides 
in eastern Maharashtra, its failure to add capacity to the 
electricity grid, and its poor record on law and order in the 
wake of communal riots, the July 2006 Mumbai train blasts and 
the November 2008 terrorist attacks. 
 
Corruption and Conflict While in Office 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶15. (SBU) Another liability for the Sena is the negative 
perception of its performance at the head of the ruling 
coalition in the state in the 1990s.  Although the Sena had 
campaigned in part on a clean government platform with its BJP 
alliance partner, once in office, observers agreed that the Sena 
engaged in rapacious corruption unseen in any previous 
government.  An industrialist told Congenoff that the corruption 
and extortion from Sena gangs had gotten so bad, a group of 
industrialists demanded that it stop or they would go public 
about their complaints.  (Note:  The executive of a 
then-fledgling airline told Congenoff that Bal insisted on 
keeping the executive's new car when he drove it to Bal's house 
for a meeting.  The executive gave Bal the keys, and took a taxi 
home.  End Note.)  The Sena scrapped its promise of 2.7 million 
jobs and subsidized meals for the poor, and did little to 
develop the eastern Maharashtra region of Vidarbha.  With little 
to claim credit for and disagreements on several issues, the BJP 
began to distance itself from its alliance partner while in 
state government.  As Marathi journalist Sachin Parab told 
Congenoffs, "The Sena and BJP have been fighting since the day 
they came to power." 
 
Raj Rising: The Impact of the MNS 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶16.  (SBU) Raj Thackeray's party will likely bleed some support 
from the Shiv Sena.  As Sena MP Raut told Congenoffs, the MNS is 
not likely to win any seats, but it could very well "spoil our 
game."  Congress spokesman Gadgil also told Congenoffs the MNS 
might pull votes away from the BJP and Shiv Sena, which could 
help Congress.  According to Raut, the MNS has the potential to 
engineer the Sena's defeat in as many as five constituencies. 
(Note:  Many observers and political leaders Media reports 
contend that Congress has nurtured the MNS in order to diminish 
the Sena, much in the same way it used the Sena to break the 
communist unions in an earlier era.  End note.)  Parab 
maintained, however, that Raj is still mainly a media creation; 
while he is better known around the state than the current chief 
minister, it will be all but impossible to translate this name 
recognition into votes with the MNS's current low level of 
organization. 
 
Comment:  Sena at a Crossroads 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶17. (SBU) In this Parliamentary election, the Sena is struggling 
to find a new relevance, as both voter preferences and ethnic 
compositions change.  The Shiv Sena has endured many challenges 
 
MUMBAI 00000139  005.2 OF 005 
 
 
in its 40 year history, including defections, bad alliances, and 
electoral defeats.  The Sena and MNS are now fighting to become 
the champions of a shrinking pie of Marathi votes, the Sena's 
crucial but diminishing vote bank.  As he leads the party into 
this election, Uddhav's challenges are to maintain a firm grip 
on the party, limit the damage caused by Raj's departure, and 
give the party a vision to match the changing nature of 
Maharashtra's electorate.  Courting, rather than attacking, 
north Indian migrant workers may prove a better strategy in a 
city like Mumbai, where such migrants are becoming an 
ever-growing political force.  Playing the Hindutva card in 
western India is also becoming less appealing to an urban 
electorate more interested in its own economic advancement. 
This election will determine whether Uddhav's attempts to make 
further inroads into rural areas, and court new vote banks have 
been successful.  Many observers maintain that the party is 
shrinking, as Bal's departure from the scene and demographics 
work against it.  However, even in the absence of a coherent 
ideology, the Sena's knack for re-defining the issues and 
focusing on local problems may yet serve it well.  End Comment. 
FOLMSBEE