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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAGUA 000447 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA ASSISTANT SECRETARY SHANNON 
DEPT ALSO FOR WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2019 
TAGS: PREL PGOV APER NU
SUBJECT: ORTEGA ACCUSES EMBASSY OF CONSPIRACY, EXPULSION 
THREAT-TALK CONTINUES 
 
REF: A. MANAGUA 433 
     ¶B. MANAGUA 425 
     ¶C. 2008 MANAGUA 848 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Robert J. Callahan for reasons 1.4 b & d. 
 
¶1.  (S/NF) SUMMARY.  President Ortega's assertion that the 
U.S. Embassy is conspiring against him and that he is 
gathering information for an eventual response continue to be 
"topic A" in Managua.  While independent media have responded 
with evident skepticism, various second-tier Sandinista 
officials have echoed his words.  This week former President 
and convicted felon Arnoldo Aleman and senior figures from 
his Constitutional Liberal Party have seized on the U.S. 
conspiracy theme as well, but have made themselves the 
supposed victim.  It is impossible to tell whether Ortega 
will follow the path of Chavez, Morales and Correa and go 
through with any expulsions of Embassy personnel or whether, 
as often happens here, the issue will die a natural death. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
Post-SOA Ortega: U.S. Conspiring Against Me, Expulsions 
Possible 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2.  (S/NF) During an April 22 appearance on Cuban television, 
Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega accused the U.S. Embassy 
of conspiring to overthrow his government.  As we reported in 
REFTEL B, Ortega comments and threats asserted that Embassy 
officials have been traveling throughout Nicaragua engaged in 
conspiratorial meetings.  Ortega claimed he had "evidence" of 
these "conspiratorial activities" and promised to soon bring 
forward this information.  He further implied that these 
revelations would force him to act, alluding to expulsions. 
In an additional bizarre twist, this week Arnoldo Aleman and 
senior PLC party figures have seized on the conspiracy theme 
as well, but have made themselves, not the Ortega government, 
the targets of our supposed skullduggery. 
 
Near Universal FSLN Support for Ortega's comments 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶3.  (S/NF) Not surprisingly, reaction from most FSLN figures 
has been supportive of Ortega, and almost taken a tone of 
"It's about time."  Initial public comment came from mostly 
second-tier FSLN officials -- Human Rights Ombudsman Omar 
Cabezas and FSLN International Relations Directorate member 
Jacinto Suarez. 
 
¶4.  (S/NF) The first FSLN official to comment was 
Presidential Economic Advisor, Bayardo Arce who actually sent 
a mixed message.  On Thursday evening, Arce told media he 
believed that Ortega would not have made such assertions 
without some evidence, but also expressed his view that 
relations with the U.S. were "normal."  He did express some 
surprise at Ortega's comments, adding that he would await 
Ortega's return for further explanation of the conspiracy. 
On Friday, Human Right Ombudsman Omar Cabezas clearly 
accepted Ortega's allegations of U.S. conspiracy, adding that 
if he were President, he would have called for expulsion of 
U.S. diplomats "a long time ago."  Throughout the weekend, 
Jacinto Suarez was the face and voice of the FLSN response in 
print and on TV.  Suarez, a senior member of the FSLN's 
International Relations Directorate and a Parlacen deputy, 
disputed Arce's assertion about normal relations by stating 
that the U.S. continued to conspire in the region, including 
in Venezuela, Bolivia and Nicaragua. 
 
¶5.  (S/NF) This week, Gustavo Porras, a leading FSLN assembly 
member and Sandinista union leader, made matter-of-fact 
comments to National Assembly media that Nicaragua's unions, 
of course, supported Ortega's assertions that the U.S. 
Embassy was conspiring against the government.  On Wednesday, 
April 29, Porras added to his screed by accusing Ambassador 
Callahan of inciting separatist actions by indigenous groups 
during a recent trip to the Atlantic Coast, as well as 
engaging in conspiratorial acts in Yugoslavia -- a location 
in which the Ambassador never set foot.  Vice President Jaime 
Morales, himself a rather isolated figure, is the only GON 
official to express skepticism about the charges referring to 
"imaginary conspiracies." 
 
FSLN-Controlled Media "Confirms" U.S. Admission of Guilt 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶6.  (S/NF) Over the last week, FSLN-controlled, 
government-friendly media have also repeated and expanded the 
conspiracy drumbeat.  We have been told that last Friday 
afternoon (April 24), Radio Ya ran an information program 
about conspiratorial activities and travel of Embassy 
personnel, which identified the Embassy's Political Counselor 
by name.  On both Monday and Tuesday, the FSLN-run electronic 
weekly "El 19," -- a reference to the July 19 date when the 
Sandinista Revolutionaries entered Managua -- ran multiple 
stories about the conspiratorial activities of the Embassy. 
Monday's lead story was headlined, "Callahan confirms his 
meetings with the Rightists to conspire against the 
government."  The story is based on the Ambassador's Friday 
responses to media questions following the Merida signing 
ceremony, in which he stated that the Embassy does, in fact, 
meet with all sectors and levels of society, including 
opposition parties, church figures, government officials as 
well as sports, cultural and social figures, as is permitted 
under the diplomatic norms outlined in the Vienna 
Conventions.  "El 19" focused on the "meet with opposition 
and church figures" portion ignoring the balance of his 
statement.  Articles on Tuesday re-stated the Ambassador's 
"admission" as evidence of conspiracy.  NOTE: "El 19" is the 
FSLN government's primary communications method with party 
faithful.  It is regularly distributed in electronic format 
under a cover letter on official government logo and signed 
by Rosario Murillo.  END NOTE. 
 
Pacto Supports Conspiracy, But with a Twist 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶7.  (S/NF) One of the more bizarre aspects of this 
environment has been the reaction of the Constitutional 
Liberal Party (PLC).  In what can only be described as a 
schizophrenic response, several senior PLC insiders, 
including PLC deputies Wilfredo Navarro and Francisco Aguirre 
Sacasa, denounced Ortega's comments as harmful to the 
national image, yet at the same time did attack Embassy 
activities, but as a conspiracy against Aleman and the PLC. 
Both Navarro and Aguirre have themselves taken very public 
postures.  They, along with Aleman, have accused the Embassy 
of instigating and organizing this week's trip to Washington 
by Eduardo Montealegre; denouncing the visit as a direct 
assault on Aleman and the PLC, and as a move to isolate 
Ortega by ending all assistance including a definitive 
cessation of MCC.  Aleman himself has aggressively tried to 
play the victim.  His virulent attacks assert that the 
Embassy actions are the latest episode is the U.S. conspiracy 
to destroy Nicaragua's Liberals.  He sought to position 
himself as the latest patriotic Liberal "victim" of the U.S. 
by invoking the so-called Knox Note sent in 1909 by the U.S. 
informing Nicaraguan Liberal President Zelaya he would be 
replaced, and the so-called "Carter Note" in 1979 informing 
Somoza that the U.S. would no longer support his regime.  A 
Monday article in La Trinchera, a newsletter financed by 
Aleman's party, claimed that the U.S. had spent $30 million 
dollars in its recent "unsuccessful efforts to destroy" him 
and the PLC. 
 
Comment 
- - - - 
 
¶8.  (S/NF) Ortega has not yet returned to the theme of the 
Embassy conspiracy, and until then, his adherents will 
continue to bang the drum on this issue.  With the media 
suggesting that he in effect "put up or shut up," we cannot 
rule out that he will take some ill-advised step, including 
possible expulsions.  The termination of Millennium Challenge 
Corporation assistance, should it happen, could be a trigger. 

On the other hand, it is entirely possible that having 
squeezed the issue to the maximum by distracting Nicaragua's 
population from its very real problems, he will drop it for a 
while.  In the meantime we will continue to engage, prudently 
but vigorously, with the full range of Nicaragua's democratic 
politicians and civic activists, consistent with our rights 
under the Vienna Conventions. 
CALLAHAN