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C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000578 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/14/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM PINR ENVR ASEC BL
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION GAINS WITH ELECTORAL LAW PASSAGE 
 
REF: A. LA PAZ 572 
     ¶B. LA PAZ 557 
     ¶C. LA PAZ 496 
 
Classified By: Charge Kris Urs for reasons 1.4 (b, d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  At approximately 4:00am on April 14, the 
Morales administration reached formal agreement with the 
opposition and passed the Electoral Transition Law (ETL), 
which establishes the rules for the December 6 national 
elections.  The ETL directs the National Electoral Court to 
construct an entirely new electoral roll with biometric 
security features, to include Bolivians living abroad.  Both 
President Evo Morales and the opposition can credibly claim 
victory after a grueling week-long debate.  Morales has cast 
himself as a heroic figure willing to undergo a hunger strike 
for his base, while the opposition is re-energized after 
reaching its goal of a totally new electoral roll. 
Indigenous groups lost the most, having seen the number of 
reserved Congressional seats drop from initial proposals of 
over 20 to only seven.  Attention now turns to December 
elections, and prospects for a MAS sweep of the presidency 
and both houses of Congress.  End summary. 
 
- - - - - - 
ETL Contents 
- - - - - - 
 
¶2. (U) The Electoral Transition Law (ETL), as mandated by the 
constitution, establishes the rules for the December 6 
election of the president, vice president, and members of the 
new Plurinational Assembly.  The ETL as passed states that 
the president and vice president will take office on January 
22, 2010 and will serve for a period of five years.  (Note: 
Earlier legislation drafts had awarded an extra seven months 
to their terms, through August 2010, but this extension was 
deleted in the final law. End note.)  The final legislation 
also allows sitting members of the legislature to run for 
office without resigning, contradicting the constitutional 
requirement that all legislators resign three months before 
elections. 
 
¶3. (U) The National Electoral Court (CNE) will direct and 
verify the elections, including construction of an entirely 
new electoral roll, in response to substantial opposition 
concerns of fraud in the old electoral roll.  The new 
electoral roll will include all eligible voters in Bolivia 
and those living in 13 countries abroad, for a total of 
approximately 4.1 million eligible voters.  The CNE is 
expected to spend up to USD 70 million in designing and 
implementing the new electoral roll system, which will be 
comprised of a database including facts related to each 
person's identity and biometric information including a 
digital photograph and fingerprints.  The ETL calls 
specifically for participation by "multilateral 
organizations" including the European Union, the UN, and the 
OAS to assess the development of the new electoral roll. 
 
¶4. (U) The opposition won as a concession that voting 
overseas would be conducted on a "test" basis.  In the scheme 
approved by Congress, the total amount of voting from abroad 
is limited to six percent of the domestic voter roll, or 
approximately 230,000 voters.  No more than 50 percent of the 
total vote from abroad may come from any one country, further 
reducing the expected impact of the vote from Argentina, 
which is expected to be heavily pro-MAS. 
 
¶5. (U) Out of 130 seats in the lower house, or House of 
Deputies, only seven will be reserved for indigenous 
representatives.  This figure was down from earlier drafts 
that indicated 14 seats would be reserved and far down from 
demands by MAS-affiliated social groups and unions for as 
many as 24.  The CNE will determine the precise location of 
the seats, which will be located in seven of the country's 
nine departments, excluding Potosi and Chuquisaca.  The final 
legislation eliminated the MAS proposal that all candidates 
for these seats first be approved by MAS-affiliated 
indigenous groups (reftel A).  The CNE will publish by August 
8 a map of all the reserved seats (and all "uninominal" or 
direct-vote seats, which will be based on the 2001 census). 
 
¶6. (U) The ETL grants all political parties and other 
registered groups the right to inspect the electoral roll. 
After significant negotiation, the final legislation allows 
voters to register using any one of five recognized identity 
documents, which some members of the opposition said 
introduced uncertainty and potential for fraud into the new 
electoral roll.  However, the ETL also states anyone using 
documents other than the national identity card will be first 
checked against the national registry, a step designed to 
eliminate the use of fraudulent or duplicate identities. 
 
¶7. (U) Senate seats will be awarded based on the D'Hondt 
method of proportional representation (reftel A), which 
generally favors the MAS and could result in the MAS winning 
three out of four seats in several departments. 
 
¶8. (U) The ETL attempts to guarantee electoral oversight at 
each electoral station, calling on electoral officials and 
public security forces to guarantee access to all political 
observers.  The final draft prohibits those in public office 
from using public funds, projects, or propaganda/publicity to 
attract votes, and also from discounting public salaries to 
finance campaigns. 
 
- - - - - - 
So Who Won? 
- - - - - - 
 
¶9. (C) Over a week of tense negotiations, the Morales 
administration and the opposition battled over the electoral 
roll, voting from outside the country, indigenous seats, and 
many other items.  With rumors of a siege of the Congress by 
MAS-affiliated social groups, potential entrance of security 
forces, and the closure of Congress all circulating widely 
before and during the negotiations, the atmosphere became 
increasingly confrontational.  In the end, both sides can 
claim victory.  The MAS avoided an opposition boycott and 
passed legislation enabling President Morales to run for his 
second term as president.  Morales' hunger strike received 
wide coverage in the local press, and his administration and 
official press portrayed him as the "people's hero."  By not 
folding during negotiations, the opposition was able to 
exorcise, at least partially, memories of their defeat in the 
August 2008 revocatory referendum and their widely-panned 
participation in an October 20 compromise on then-draft 
constitutional text.  The opposition seized momentum, if not 
outright victory, through their successful demand that the 
electoral roll be completely redone, something the MAS 
resisted but ultimately ceded. 
 
¶10. (C) Indigenous groups are widely viewed as having lost 
the most during the final negotiations.  Groups such as 
CONAMAQ (the National Council of Allyus and Markas of 
Qullasuyu) had demanded as many as 24 reserved seats but 
emerged with only seven.  El Alto council member Roberto de 
la Cruz said, "we supported them, but we got nothing." 
Rumors circulated during the week-long negotiations that 
social group leaders pressured President Morales to support a 
siege of Congress and its eventual closure (to be blamed on 
the "obstructionist" opposition), but that the military would 
not support such action, leaving the social groups without 
options. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - 
Introducing Digital Fraud 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶11. (C) While the opposition fought for a new electoral roll 
that would include biometric security elements, many still 
believed fraud would be a real danger.  Constitutional expert 
Carlos Alarcon said the construction and transparency of the 
new electoral roll would be the "next pitched battle." 
Ex-Vice President and presidential candidate Victor Hugo 
Cardenas said, "if the biometric roll does not have an 
impartial administrator with a control from the political 
opposition, we will pass from a manual fraud to a digital 
one."  And Cardenas campaign advisor Javier Flores said, "it 
doesn't matter if there is a fancy new biometric security 
system if the MAS are the only ones issuing and reviewing the 
identity documents.  A computer-based system just makes 
easier for a few engineers to control the electoral roll and 
therefore the outcome of the election."  Opposition party 
chief and former President Tuto Quiroga said that as long as 
Jose Luis Exeni is the CNE president, the opposition would 
not be able to trust the voter roll. 
 
- - - - 
Comment 
- - - - 
 
¶12. (C)  However important the new electoral legislation is, 
it is only a prelude to the elections themselves.  The MAS 
and President Morales are still very much favored to win in 
December, especially given the ruling party's propaganda 
apparatus, the fractured nature of the opposition, and the 
large number of challengers to Morales for the presidency. 
Still, opposition contacts seem revitalized by their ability 
to stand up to the MAS during negotiations and win 
significant concessions.  The opposition now faces the almost 
insurmountable task of translating these gains into a viable 
campaign strategy.  End comment. 
URS