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C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000557 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM PINR ENVR ASEC BL
SUBJECT: STARVING DEMOCRACY: ELECTORAL LAW IMPASSE 
 
REF: LA PAZ 496 
 
Classified By: A/EcoPol Chief Brian Quigley for reasons 1.4 (b, d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  As of 2:00pm April 9, President Evo Morales 
and his ruling Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party has been 
unable to break a legislative deadlock with the opposition 
over passage of the constitutionally-mandated Electoral 
Transition Law (ETL), which will govern all aspects of 
upcoming national elections (reftel).  In response, Morales 
and leaders of MAS-affiliated social groups have declared an 
indefinite hunger strike to demand approval of the law. 
Marathon negotiation sessions have yielded agreement on 
several core issues, but "non-negotiable" opposition demands 
for a completely new electoral roll have led to an impasse. 
Embassy sources say the opposition has realized it will lose 
the election in dramatic fashion without a radically 
different law and has adopted an "all or nothing" approach. 
While there are rumors Morales will use the opposition's 
intransigence to close Congress and move elections forward, 
nothing is certain at this point.  End summary. 
 
- - - - - - 
Background 
- - - - - - 
 
¶2. (C) The new Bolivian constitution required Congressional 
passage by April 8 of a "transitional regime" to establish 
the rules for the December 6 election of the president, vice 
president, and members of the new "Plurinational Assembly." 
While both the lower house of Congress and the Senate passed 
significantly different versions of an Electoral Transition 
Law (ETL) by the deadline, they have not been able to 
reconcile the versions in Congress-wide negotiations. 
Although the ruling MAS party has an overall majority in the 
Congress, parliamentary rules require that both the lower 
house and the Senate reach quorums before voting on the 
reconciled bill can occur.  The opposition-controlled Senate 
has refused to form a quorum, and has remained unified in the 
face of MAS attempts to recruit two opposition Senators to 
their side in order to force a vote. 
 
¶3. (C) According to opposition analysts, the MAS version of 
the ETL included several elements designed to effectively 
guarantee a two-thirds majority in the new Plurinational 
Assembly (reftel), and with it the ability to modify the 
constitution at will.  As a result, opposition senators, led 
by Senate President Oscar Ortiz, have taken an "all or 
nothing" approach in reconciliation negotiations, demanding 
fundamental changes in the legislation. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - 
Negotiations Stalled 
- - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4. (C) Sources inside the negotiations reported the MAS was 
prepared to give in to opposition demands on almost all 
fronts in order to get the law passed.  A MAS proposal at 
dawn April 9 apparently included a reduction in the number of 
indigenous seats from 14 to eight, elimination of vetting 
requirements in the indigenous districts, a new electoral 
roll with biometric features for Bolivians living abroad, and 
a review of up to 30 percent of the domestic electoral roll. 
However, deep opposition suspicion of the electoral rolls led 
Senate President Ortiz to reject the deal.  The opposition 
has called its demand for a completely new electoral roll 
"non-negotiable." 
 
¶5. (U) In response, several media outlets reported that a 
massive walk-out by MAS representatives, followed by a siege 
by MAS-affiliated social groups and calls for the closure of 
Congress, was imminent.  However, at this time none of these 
steps has materialized.  Instead, President Morales announced 
he and members of MAS-affiliated labor and social groups 
would go on a hunger strike, "in defense of all those who 
approved the constitution" in a January 25 referendum and to 
call attention to the "anti-democratic" opposition.  (Note: 
Morales was not the first to call a hunger strike. 
Opposition presidential candidate Rene Joaquino and members 
of his Social Alliance party began a hunger strike against 
the MAS legislation a day earlier, leading to dueling hunger 
strikes.  In addition, Morales is not the first Bolivian 
president to go on a hunger strike.  Presidents Siles Zuazo 
and Mesa also attempted to build public sympathies through 
hunger strikes, neither of which was successful. End note.) 
 
- - - - - - - - - - 
Whither the Siege? 
- - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶6. (C) While many expected a massive march and subsequent 
siege of Congress, some sources have told us the MAS somewhat 
surprisingly had neither the money, leadership, nor popular 
support necessary for such a march.  In the past, Santos 
Ramirez would have organized such a protest or siege on 
Congress, but he has been expelled from the MAS.  In 
addition, after word leaked that the MAS was ready to 
sacrifice the indigenous districts, many members of social 
groups felt betrayed and refused to march.  Other sources 
disagree, noting the MAS is expert in organizing protests. 
They assert instead that Morales assessed that a march at 
this time would appear undemocratic and actually undermine 
his support. 
 
- - - - 
Comment 
- - - - 
 
¶7. (C) With their backs collectively to the wall, and 
memories of how their October 21 compromise on the new 
constitution's text came back to haunt them, the opposition 
has held firm in negotiations over the election law and 
forced a stalemate in negotiations.  Instead of cooperating 
in the passage of a law that would spell their downfall, the 
opposition has essentially dared Morales to call elections by 
supreme decree.  While Morales instead opted for a hunger 
strike to build public and international support for the MAS, 
no one doubts Morales has given up his other options.  Still, 
with the predominantly catholic country coming to a 
standstill for Easter weekend, pressure is on for Morales to 
either strike a deal, coax (or buy) opposition votes, or 
close Congress and call for early elections.  Post will 
continue to monitor the situation. 
URS