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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAHORE 000068 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  3/31/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PTER PK
SUBJECT: SUPREME COURT RESTORES SHAHBAZ SHARIF AS PUNJAB CHIEF 
MINISTER 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Bryan Hunt, Principal Officer, Consulate Lahore, 
U.S. Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
¶1. (C) Summary:The Supreme Court March 31 issued a stay order 
against its February 25 decision to disqualify Nawaz and Shahbaz 
Sharif from holding public office.  The immediate impact of this 
decision was to restore the status quo and temporarily restore 
Shahbaz Sharif as Chief Minister.  It did not/not settle the 
issue of Sharifs' disqualification; the Court has yet to rule on 
the petition submitted by the government on the original 
disqualification ruling. The Sharifs' Pakistan Muslim League-N 
(PML-N) Speaker of the Provincial Assembly subsequently 
prorogued the assembly  indefinitely.  Both the PML-N and 
Pakistan People's Party (PPP) remain divided about whether to 
maintain their coalition at the provincial level or form a PML-N 
government with votes from renegade Pakistan Muslim League (PML) 
members.  End Summary. 
 
- - - 
Supreme Court Reinstates Shahbaz Sharif 
- - - 
 
¶2. (SBU) The Supreme Court March 31 issued a stay order against 
its February 25 decision to disqualify from public office both 
Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif.  The immediate impact of the stay 
order was to return to the status quo; this means the 
reinstatement of PML-N president Shahbaz Sharif as Chief 
Minister of Punjab.  "We direct that till final disposal of the 
main petitions under review, the operation of February 25, 2009, 
shall remain suspended and the petitioner (Shahbaz Sharif) shall 
assume the chief minister office with immediate effect," Justice 
Tassaduq Hussain Jillani, head of the five-member bench, ruled. 
This stay order does not/not settle the issue of the Sharifs' 
eligibility; the Court has just begun deliberations on the 
government's petition for a review of the original February 25 
decision. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Speaker of the Provincial Assembly Rana Aftab prorogued 
indefinitely the April 1 session that President Asif Zardari had 
earlier called when he declared an end to governor's rule on 
March 28. 
 
- - - 
PML-N Ponders PPP or PML Alliance 
- - - 
 
¶4. (C) Zain Qadri, PML-N Member of the Provincial Assembly (MPA) 
and political advisor to Shahbaz Sharif, told poloff in a March 
31 meeting that the PML-N now faces a decision of whether the 
party will revive its previous coalition with the Pakistan 
People's Party (PPP) or attempt to establish a provincial 
government on its own.  Although he acknowledged that some in 
the PML-N felt that the tie-up with the PPP would help 
stability, Qadri believed that Shahbaz should strike out on his 
own.  "We don't want to be blamed for what happens at the 
center, but we can take responsibility for what happens in the 
province," he insisted. 
 
¶5. (C) If the PML-N decides to jettison the PPP, he speculated, 
Shahbaz would dissolve the cabinet when the Assembly next meets. 
 Qadri estimated that the forward bloc, or the portion of the 
Pakistan Muslim League (PML) that would support the PML-N in 
government, has reached 48 MPAs.  As a majority of the PML, he 
explained, those MPAs siding with Shahbaz Sharif would not face 
disqualification for ignoring party instructions.  The PML would 
effectively dissolve, he speculated.  In another attempt to hold 
his party together, PML President Chaudhry Shujaat indicated 
April 1 that this party would play a role as the "real" 
opposition. 
 
¶6. (C) Qadri noted that Nawaz Sharif has not yet made his 
preference for PPP or PML known.  However, he believed, Shahbaz 
has leaned towards a forward bloc solution. 
 
- - - 
PPP Waits for Zardari's Decision 
- - - 
 
¶7. (C) President Zardari, Prime Minister Gilani and PPP 
Spokesperson Fawzia Wahab have all stated publicly that the PPP 
now will sit in opposition in Punjab.  In effect, the PPP is 
challenging the ability of the PML-N  to form a government 
without them.  PPP insider Abdul Qadir Shaheen described to 
Principal Officer April 1 that the party remains divided on 
 
LAHORE 00000068  002 OF 002 
 
 
rejoining the PML-N in a coalition.  "A powerful pressure group 
wants PPP to join," he related, including MPA Qasim Zia, who 
hopes to obtain the Senior Minister position currently occupied 
by rival Raja Riaz.  Meanwhile, the PPP ministers have resumed 
their offices although, according to Shaheen, Shahbaz has 
delayed convening his cabinet until Zardari makes a decision of 
whether to continue the coalition. 
 
- - - 
PML-N Reverses Governor's Rule 
- - - 
 
¶8. (C) Shaheen relayed that Shahbaz has already reversed several 
actions taken by Governor Salman Taseer during governor's rule. 
The Chief Secretary has told the Inspector General of Police 
(IGP) to stop his work in preparation for the Prime Minister to 
reappoint the previous IGP, Shaheen said.  Shahbaz has also 
cancelled 800 transfers ordered by the governor, according to 
Shaheen.  However, Shaheen, as well other observers, expect that 
the Prime Minister will insist that Shahbaz retain the newly 
appointed Chief Secretary, a fellow Seraiki speaker from south 
Punjab. 
 
- - - 
Comment: Smoother Sailing, But Clouds Still Linger 
- - - 
 
¶9. (C) Comment: The temporary reinstatement of Shahbaz Sharif 
will help settle the political waters in Punjab for now.  The 
next acts of this drama will depend on whether the PML forward 
block reaches enough mass to split the party and whether Zardari 
will appoint a replacement to the unpopular PPP Governor Salman 
Taseer. 
HUNT