VZCZCXRO6090
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHOS #0163 0910811
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 010811Z APR 09
FM AMCONSUL LAGOS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0656
INFO RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA 0262
RHMCSUU/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS LAGOS 000163 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DOE FOR GPERSONS, CHAYLOCK 
TREASURY FOR DPETERS, RHALL, RABDULRAZAK 
COMMERCE FOR KBURRESS 
USDOC FOR 3130/USFC/OIO/ANESA/DHARRIS 
STATE PASS USTR FOR LISER, AGAMA 
STATE PASS USAID FOR NFREEMAN, GBERTOLIN 
STATE PASS OPIC FOR ZHAN, MSTUCKART 
STATE PASS TDA FOR LFITTS, PMARIN 
STATE PASS EXIM FOR JRICHTER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: Ekiti Gubernatorial Election Rerun Set for April 
25 
 
¶1.  (U) SUMMARY:  The Ekiti State gubernatorial election, ordered 
rerun by the Appeals Court on February 17, will be held on April 25. 
 Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has 
pledged to organize a transparent election, and issued election 
guidelines it claims will eliminate election malpractice and curb 
violence. Opposition party supporters called the plan an excuse to 
flood the state with security agents to intimidate voters and rig 
the election; they vowed to resist, with former Ekiti State Governor 
Ayo Fayose vowing to champion violent opposition to rigging 
attempts.  End Summary 
 
¶2. (U)  The Ekiti State gubernatorial election will be rerun in 10 
of the state's 16 local government areas on April 25, Nigeria's 
Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced March 18. 
 (NOTE:  On February 17 a Federal Appeals Court ordered new 
elections in 10 of the 16 local government areas in Ekiti State. 
End Note).  INEC Chairman Maurice Iwu announced the date after a 
meeting with governorship candidates and Ekiti State party 
representatives.  According to press reports, Iwu pledged to 
organize a credible election whose outcome will be acceptable to all 
parties; he also promised that a majority of the electoral officials 
conducting the election will be recruited from outside Ekiti State 
and that their names would be published before the election.  In 
addition, he announced, movements in and out of Ekiti State will be 
restricted and no vehicular movement will be permitted around 
polling stations.  All political parties involved in the election 
have been directed to forward names and details of their agents to 
the commission before March 31.  Iwu warned that only duly 
accredited election observers would be allowed to cover the 
election, press reports said. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The media also reported that the opposition Action Congress 
(AC), whose candidate Kayode Fayemi will be on the ballot April 25, 
has alleged that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is planning to 
manipulate the election by flooding Ekiti State with thousands of 
security agents in an attempt to intimidate voters and keep them 
away from polling stations.  Former Ekiti State Governor Ayo Fayose 
also told the press that the PDP is bent on winning the election by 
any means.  Fayose, a PDP member who has formally declared his 
support for Fayemi, vowed to champion a violent opposition to any 
attempt by the PDP to re-impose Governor Olusegun Oni (PDP) on the 
people.  A community-based NGO representative confirmed to PolSpec 
that Oni is unpopular, and that he perceives sufficient 
dissatisfaction with Oni's performance that people would resist PDP 
attempts to rig Oni back into the Governor's chair.  PolSpec has 
picked up rumors that AC is planning to spend large sums of money in 
a push to elect Fayemi. 
 
¶4. (SBU) COMMENT:  Threats and counter threats from parties involved 
in this election are a clear signal that the conduct of this 
election may not be peaceful.  Already, party leaders are urging 
their respective followers to take up arms if they sense that the 
election is being manipulated.  Unless the election organizers take 
adequate steps to ease the tension, there is a real possibility that 
the election will be marred by violence, or provoke the Federal 
government to declare a state of emergency as occurred in 2006.  End 
Comment. 
 
¶5. (U) This cable cleared by Embassy Abuja.