VZCZCXRO6527
PP RUEHGR
DE RUEHKG #0306/01 1122022
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 222022Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7532
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KINGSTON 000306 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR (ACADIEUX)(VDEPIRRO)(WSMITH) 
WHA/EPSC (MROONEY) (FCORNEILLE) 
EEB/ESC/IFD/EPC (McMANUS) 
 
SANTO DOMINGO FOR FCS AND FAS 
TREASURY FOR ERIN NEPHEW 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: ECON TRYS ENRG EFIN EINV ETRD EAIR IADB IBRD IMF
KCOR, KIPR, XL, JM 
SUBJECT: FEW OPTIONS FOR CASH STRAPPED JAMAICA 
 
REF: A) KINGSTON 303 
B) KINGSTON 269 
C) KINGSTON 245 
D) KINGSTON 223 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY.  As the Bruce Golding-led administration reaches 
the 18 month mark; the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) faces difficult 
decisions on the eve of its second budget presentation.  Still 
suffering the effects of the global economic meltdown and frozen 
credit markets, the GOJ has been forced to take a hard look at its 
practice of generating persistent fiscal deficits and greater debt. 
The severity of the situation is weighing on Golding, who has 
signaled that changes are inevitable.  Already, he has taken the 
symbolic step of foregoing a wage increase and taking a 15 percent 
wage cut and has encouraged his civil service colleagues to follow 
suit.  He has made it clear that public sector workers either have 
to accept a wage freeze or face up to 22,000 job cuts.  Given the 
current economic malaise, more robust action will be needed, 
including a possible return to the IMF and perhaps debt 
restructuring.  The GOJ may also be seeking a new central bank 
governor.  Some analysts are concerned that a mooted gas tax could 
spark unrest and rioting, as occurred in 1997.  End Summary. 
 
 
BUDGET HIKE AMIDST ECONOMIC MALAISE 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The GOJ is set to spend USD 6.2 billion (up 8 percent in 
nominal terms) during the 2009/10 fiscal year of which 56 percent or 
USD 3.5 billion has been allocated to servicing the country's 
gargantuan public debt.  (Note: The budget has actually shrunk 
nearly 8 percent in real terms compared to last year). The increased 
spending is coming amidst a 0.6 percent decline in GDP following 
growth of 2.7 and 1.4 percent in 2006 and 2007 respectively. 
Although commodities prices, and by extension inflation, have 
moderated to some degree, the current account deficit of USD 3.2 
billion or 21.9 percent of GDP for 2008 is the largest on record for 
Jamaica.  The deterioration in the current account deficit was 
influenced by a widening of the trade deficit to USD 5 billion 
following a USD 1 billion spike in oil imports.  At the same time, 
slowing global growth reduced external demand for Jamaican goods, 
particularly bauxite and alumina, leading to a far more modest rise 
in exports at USD 399 million. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The shortfall of payments relative to receipts, coupled 
with the reduction in access to global credit and financial markets, 
precipitated a demand supply imbalance, leading to a 23 percent 
depreciation in the local currency since September 2008 (reftels). 
To stem the tide the central bank hiked interest rates to 24 
percent, while continuing its practice of augmenting supplies using 
resources from its stock of Net International Reserves (NIR). 
However, with demand pressures resilient, the stock of NIR has 
declined to USD 1.6 billion or 12.8 weeks of goods imports.  This is 
just above the international benchmark of three months of goods 
imports, suggesting that any further depletion could lead to renewed 
speculation and further instability in the foreign exchange market. 
 
 
REVENUES DIVE 
------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) The proposed budget hike also comes against the background 
of stagnant revenue growth, a direct result of the economic 
slowdown.  For the first 11 months of the 2008/09 fiscal year the 
GOJ collected USD 2.7 billion, USD 240 million below projections. 
As a result, the fiscal deficit for the same period is running at 
USD 784 million, or USD 10.2 million more than targeted.  The 
revenue shortfall is largely due to the fall off in sales taxes as 
demand for goods and services by Jamaicans declines.  There was also 
no levy on profits from Bauxite/Alumina companies following the 
decision by companies to halt production in the face of falling 
global demand for aluminum (reftels). 
 
CAPITAL SPENDING SLASHED TO COMPENSATE 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) As revenues fell and wages and interest payments rose, the 
GOJ was forced to cut capital expenditure by USD 200 million. 
Although this non-obligatory area of expenditure remains easy prey, 
it starves the economy of the capital infrastructure required to 
boost economic activity.  A lack of capital spending also reduces 
jobs in the construction sector for both skilled and unskilled 
workers, a sector that was already hit by a slowdown as construction 
 
KINGSTON 00000306  002 OF 003 
 
 
of tourist hotels has stalled.  To close the financing gap the GOJ 
also sourced USD 257 million more than planned from the debt market. 
 The higher demand for credit by the GOJ is partially responsible 
for the continued high domestic interest rates; in addition to 
increasing debt servicing costs, GOJ credit demand will continue to 
crowd out private sector investment. 
 
WAGE FREEZE OR JOB CUTS? 
------------------------ 
 
¶6. (SBU) While little emphasis is placed on wages and salaries, this 
area of expenditure is expected to account for 21 percent of the 
budget this year.  This means that 77 cents of every dollar of 
revenue or new borrowing will be used to finance wages and salaries 
and debt servicing for next fiscal year.  The GOJ's determination to 
make good on its debt obligations means it will need to focus on 
ways of reducing its increasingly burdensome public sector wage 
costs.  Already, PM Golding has signaled his intention to arrest the 
growth in this area by agreeing to forego his own wage increase in 
addition to giving up 15 percent of his current salary.  Golding has 
encouraged his colleagues on both sides of the political divide to 
follow suit. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Although his party officials have agreed to the request, 
members of the opposition party are resisting.  In the face of 
robust trade union opposition, Golding also has announced a wage 
freeze in the public sector, noting that the only other option would 
be a cut of up to 22,000 jobs.  Even though Golding is taking a 
tough stance, he faces significant opposition from three of the 
strongest public sector groups: teachers, nurses, and doctors. 
Already Labor Minister Pearnel Charles has had to apply for an 
injunction to stop doctors from staging a work slowdown. 
 
 
GAS TAX COULD FUEL RIOTS 
------------------------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) Golding is opting for a potentially politically volatile 
route of increasing borrowing and introducing new tax measures to 
finance the budget.  The GOJ will likely introduce a new tax package 
including a gas tax (Note: in 1997 a similar measure fuelled the 
only island-wide riot in Jamaica's recent history, reftels.  End 
Note).  The "gas riots" lasted for three days, crippling economic 
activity and hurting tourism, and only abated after the GOJ 
rescinded the decision.  Jamaica Observer Columnist and Financial 
Analyst Keith Collister told emboffs that the GOJ was debating a JMD 
9-10 flat tax (about USD ll cents) on a liter of gas, which now 
sells for as high as JMD 65 (USD 74 cents).  Collister, a government 
sympathizer, also alluded to a possible consumption tax on 
electricity, and told emboffs that he had advised the GOJ to 
implement the gas tax in smaller tranches over the year.  He said if 
both measures are implemented concurrently, there is likely to be 
rioting of the proportions seen in 1997. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Collister's advice appears to be finding support, as senior 
technocrat at the Ministry of Finance and the Public Service 
Courtney Williams told emboffs that the proposed fuel tax was 
negotiated down to JMD 7.50 (USD 8.5 cents) per liter, and his 
preferred position remained JMD 5.00 (USD 5.6 cents).  He said the 
electricity tax was still under consideration but, was even more 
troublesome, given that a tax could lead to increased theft 
especially among larger consumers of electricity.  ((Note:  Non 
technical loss of electricity-theft-at the Jamaican Public Service 
Company (JPSC), the monopoly power provider, already stands at 13.2 
percent of total output)).  Williams said with the JPSC already due 
for a rate increase, a consumption tax would be a double whammy.  He 
also said that the gas tax, which is being sold as a revenue source 
to be placed in a dedicated fund for infrastructure, was proposed 
for implementation in 2008 when fuel prices were falling, but this 
was rejected by the political directorate.  In confirming this 
position, Collister said that the proposal was actually accepted by 
Minister Without Portfolio in the Finance Ministry, Don Webhy, but 
apparently rejected by Audley Shaw, Minister of Finance and Public 
Service. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Williams, who also confirmed an increase in the income tax 
threshold to reduce the burden on the formal economy, appears to be 
less concerned about possible rioting.  His view is grounded in the 
fact that tax payers already are expecting the tax.  (Note the idea 
of a potential new gas tax has appeared in newspapers and on the 
radio for several weeks).  He said the probability of rioting will 
be largely based on the size of the tax.  He appeared even more 
concerned about the policy-induced inflationary effects of the tax 
 
KINGSTON 00000306  003 OF 003 
 
 
measures and the resulting rising prices that would have a more 
significant affect on poorer Jamaicans. 
 
 
IMF PROGRAM IMMINENT 
-------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Even if the GOJ is able to add a new tax package and 
implement expenditure reductions, the country still faces 
significant economic malaise.  Remittances, the country's largest 
and most resilient foreign exchange flow, have been declining by 
double digits since the beginning of 2009 (reftels).  Coupled with 
the expected collapse in bauxite/alumina and scrap metals earnings, 
as well as flat tourism receipts, the overall prospects look bleak. 
Given this scenario, there is rising indication that the GOJ will 
have to seek an arrangement with the IMF (reftels).  Even PM Golding 
has backed off his previous position of ruling out a return, by 
announcing that a team will be undertaking exploratory talks with 
the IMF.  Although necessary, this is not an easy step for Golding 
given the huge political cost associated with a return to the IMF 
(Note: Jamaicans blame the IMF for some of the ills facing the 
country because of the austerity measures previously associated with 
its lending arrangements.  End Note). 
 
¶12. (SBU) Shaw's former personal assistant, Sidjae Robinson, told 
emboffs that Jamaica already was in discussions with the Fund and an 
early arrangement could well be a reality.  She said the process 
should be aided by the fact that Shaw and current IMF Head, 
Dominique Strauss Kahn, have developed a good working relationship 
-- Strauss Kahn visited Jamaica at the end of 2008.  Courtney 
Williams also told emboff that internal discussions were ongoing for 
a possible return to the IMF, but the move was facing resistance 
from central bank governor Derrick Lattibeaudiere, who ironically 
stands to benefit (the move would help foreign exchange, interest 
rate and inflation problems).  (Note: Although the central bank 
falls under the authority of Audley Shaw, Minister of Finance and 
Public Service, the governor has traditionally operated 
autonomously.  However, this may change if Lattibeaudiere remains at 
odds with Shaw on key issues like the IMF.  Lattibeaudiere caused 
outrage among the business community earlier in the year when he 
took measures to raise interest rates.  Robinson asked Emboffs for 
resumes of possible candidates with central banking experience, 
indicating Shaw may be looking to replace central bank governor. 
End Note). 
 
DEBT RESTRUCTURING DEBATE 
------------------------- 
 
¶13. (SBU) Talk about a possible restructuring of the domestic debt 
has also emerged in the last two weeks.  The issue was raised during 
questioning on the proposed budget at the Standing Finance Committee 
of Parliament. PM Golding, cognizant of the damage any official talk 
of debt restructuring could have on the credit market, was at pains 
to point out that the GOJ was committed to continue making good on 
its debt obligations.  He did disclose, though, that discussions 
were taking place among a group of creditors, and he would be 
willing to listen to any proposal they might present.  In a thinly 
veiled warning to creditors, he went on to suggest that it was in 
everyone's interest to understand the current problems facing the 
country and do what was in the best interest of everyone.  Trade 
unions also have been arguing that labor should not continue to bear 
the brunt of the adjustments (wage freeze) and it was about time 
capital (creditors), the major beneficiary of the high interest rate 
policy, face some of the pain. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶14. (SBU) The GOJ faces continued hurdles in the face of the global 
economic crisis, frozen credit markets, and falling revenue from its 
three key sectors: tourism, bauxite and remittances.  If the 
proposed tax package does lead to public disturbances or riots, it 
could further hurt the tourism sector.  The sector is still fearful 
that the recent attempted hijacking incident of Canadian passengers 
aboard a CanJet in Montego Bay could deal a blow to the sector and 
hurt future earnings (reftel).  Although well handled by Jamaican 
security forces and the GOJ's tourism public relations team, it is 
too early to tell what impact that event may have on tourist 
arrivals.  Emboffs are attending the budget debate in Parliament on 
April 23, and will report suptel on specifics of the tax package and 
expenditures.  End Comment. 
HEG