VZCZCXRO2089
RR RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHIL #0913/01 1191411
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 291411Z APR 09
FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2493
INFO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/FBI WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDO/AMEMBASSY DOHA 1638
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0193
RUEHML/AMEMBASSY MANILA 3160
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 4804
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0185
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE 7138
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI 1533
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR 6073

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 000913 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: ECON ETRD EAID EFIN ENGY PK
SUBJECT:  ADB CONCERNED OVER ENERGY SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS 
 
REFS: A. ISLAMABAD 575 B. ISLAMABAD 315 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  On April 21, USAID and ECON officials met with 
Rune Stroem, Country Director for the Asian Development Bank (ADB), 
who conveyed the ADB's concerns over the slow pace of energy sector 
reforms in Pakistan.  Stroem identified three problems with the 
sector: the new Lahore High Court case challenging NEPRA's tariff 
setting mechanism; the ever increasing amount of circular debt; and 
the expected spike in power outages over the summer.  Post 
understands ADB's concerns regarding the circular debt but believes 
that it is very unlikely that NEPRA's tariff setting mechanism will 
changed anytime soon.  End Summary. 
 
- - - - - - - 
ADB CONCERNS 
- - - - - - - 
 
¶2. (SBU) Rune Stroem, Country Director for the ADB, briefed USAID 
and ECON officials on the ADB's concerns regarding the energy sector 
in Pakistan.  The meeting, a follow-up to the DCM's earlier 
conversation with Stroem on the energy problems in Pakistan, was set 
up to determine how the ADB and USG can cooperate to help the GOP 
move forward on energy sector reforms. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Stroem highlighted three problems in the energy sector. 
First, the Lahore High Court recently began reviewing a case which 
argues that National Electric Power Regulatory Authority's (NEPRA), 
Pakistan's electricity regulator, tariff setting mechanism for 
distribution companies is in violation of the NEPRA Act of 1997. 
The ADB believes the NEPRA tariff setting mechanism depoliticizes 
tariffs and would be concerned should it be altered.  The court case 
against NEPRA claims that NEPRA's tariffs are determined without any 
public hearings.  Stroem is worried over the end result if the 
Lahore High Court rules against NEPRA. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Comment: According to our understanding of the Pakistani 
constitution, however, the Lahore High Court can only review NEPRA's 
tariff setting mechanism to see if the proposed tariff adjustment 
conforms with the NEPRA Act.  The High Court cannot challenge 
NEPRA's tariff setting mechanism as the mechanism is defined in the 
NEPRA Act passed by the National Assembly and only the National 
Assembly can change it.  In January, a similar case was filed in the 
Lahore High Court and a decision was rendered in favor of NEPRA. 
End Comment. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The ADB is also concerned by the increasing circular debt 
problem.  Stroem contends that the circular debt in the energy 
sector is growing by PKR 1.5 billion (USD 18.75 million) per day, 
putting a heavy burden on Pakistan's financial stability. (Note: 
Post cannot confirm this figure).  He is also worried that the GOP 
has not issued a verifiable number on the amount of the circular 
debt.  The GOP's Term Financing Certificates (TFC) represent a short 
term solution to the circular debt problem by shifting the GOP 
payment obligation from energy companies to the banks.  According to 
ADB figures, the energy sector is still running up rapid debts, 
borrowing up to PKR 1.5 billion (USD 18.75 million) per day from the 
banks.  This continues to be a problem that re-funding the stock of 
old debt obviously does not solve.  Stroem provided USAID and ECON 
with summaries of "inter-corporate" debt on three dates that show 
net debt rising from PKR 146 billion (USD 183 million) on March 20 
to PKR 201 billion (USD 251 million) on April 13 (PKR 55 billion or 
USD 69 million in 24 days) and PKR 206 billion (USD 258 million) on 
April 17 (PKR 5 billion or USD 6.3 million in 4 days). 
 
¶6. (SBU) Finally, the ADB expects a summer spike in power shortages 
that will cause the total current electricity deficit to rise from 
2,500 MW to 6-7,000 MW.  The current 2,500 MW deficit already 
results in 4-16 hours of power outages a day in major cities. 
Stroem said he was concerned that this surge in the deficit will 
lead to more power outages which is sure to cause civil unrest as it 
has done in the past. 
 
- - - - - 
 
ISLAMABAD 00000913  002 OF 002 
 
 
COMMENT 
- - - - - 
 
¶7. (SBU) The ADB's concerns that the GOP may change or abolish the 
NEPRA Act are probably overstated.  Our understanding is that such a 
change would prove extremely difficult and would require action by 
the National Assembly, which could take years.  The real difficulty 
with NEPRA's tariff mechanism is that NEPRA's tariff determinations 
are not always implemented by the Ministry of Water and Power, which 
is legally required to announce the tariff adjustment.  For 
political reasons the GOP either does not publish the tariff 
increases until many months after the recommendation or it announces 
that it will pay the raise in the form of subsidies. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Post shares Stroem's concerns regarding the circular debt 
problem in Pakistan.  The recent PKR 80 billion (USD 100 million) 
Term Financing Certificates (TFC) issued to pay part of the PKR 200 
billion (USD 2.5 billion) in debt (refs A and B) have not created 
new liquidity or helped energy companies pay each other's debt.  The 
move has only shifted the GOP's payment obligation from the energy 
companies to the banks.  Post believes that the TFC plan represents 
a rather ingenious short-term method to allow the IPPs to continue 
to buy fuel but it is not sustainable.  If WAPDA does not address 
the issues responsible for creating the circular debt such as 
cutting line losses, improving the recovery system and removing 
subsidies, the debt will continue and this time the banks may not 
bail out the government.  Regarding ADB's projection of a summer 
spike of 6-7,000 MW in the electricity deficit, we will confirm 
these estimates with GOP officials as Post has not seen any 
forecasts that predict more than a 4,000 MW shortfall.   End 
Comment. 
 
FEIERSTEIN