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FM AMCONSUL DURBAN
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INFO RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDHP/DIA DHP-1 WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 0803

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DURBAN 000039 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: INDIANS, CIVIL SOCIETY, AND POLITICAL PARTIES IN KWAZULU 
NATAL ANTICIPATE ELECTION DAY 
 
REF: A) PRETORIA 664; B) PRETORIA 662; C) 08 DURBAN 66 
 
DURBAN 00000039  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary.  Two weeks before national elections, KwaZulu 
Natal (KZN) stakeholders provided a range of views to visiting 
Political Counselor.  The Indian vote is in question as many 
feel abandoned by the African National Congress (ANC) while 
others wonder if a Zuma administration will be more sympathetic 
to Indian concerns.  Civil society is concerned about the 
integrity of democratic institutions but sees hope in what they 
perceive as a more socialist-leaning ANC.  Political parties in 
KZN are confident they will loosen the ANC's grip on power.  End 
Summary. 
 
Indian Perspectives on National Politics 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Political Counselor (Pol Counselor), Consul General 
(CG), Political and Economic Officer (P/E Officer), and 
Political and Economic Assistant (P/E Assistant) met with 
retired Professor Syed Nadvi, Professor of Islamic Studies at 
the University of Durban, and Ami Nanakchand, former 
apartheid-era parliamentarian and retired political journalist, 
on April 7.  When discussing the April 6 National Prosecuting 
Authority's (NPA) decision to drop charges against African 
National Congress' (ANC) President, Jacob Zuma, Nanakchand 
blithely replied that it was not surprising that Zuma had gotten 
himself into trouble.  Zuma, after all, had come from nothing 
and had needed and received the financial support of Indians 
when he returned to South Africa from exile.  His financial 
indiscretions began as his needs grew, observed Nanakchand. 
Despite his troubles, Zuma is enjoying more support from the 
Indian community than former South African President Thabo 
Mbeki, and many Indians believe that Zuma is prepared to address 
their concerns, according to our interlocutors. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Indians think that the prosecution of prominent 
Indians such as Schabir Shaik, former financial advisor to Zuma, 
and Mac Maharaj, former Minister of Transport, was part of an 
Mbeki strategy to single out and alienate Indians, said 
Nanakchand.  Indians were not happy with the treatment that 
former Western Cape Premier Ebrahim Rasool received from the ANC 
and had been reluctant to vote for the ANC as a result. 
However, since Rasool's appointment as South African President 
Kgalema Motlante's special advisor, Indians are now more likely 
to vote for the ANC, said Nadvi.  Also, the passing of the bill 
on the recognition of Islamic marriages currently being 
considered by Parliament may influence Indian and Pakistani 
Muslims in South Africa to continue supporting the ANC, he added. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) In general, Nanakchand believes that the many decades 
of contributions by Indians to the South African freedom 
struggle have not been recognized or rewarded sufficiently by 
the ANC.  Indians do not feature prominently on the ANC 
parliamentary lists, the annual national honors awards, and this 
is a concern for many Indians, he added.  Affirmative action, 
which benefits the majority black community far more than any 
other, is also a concern for the Indian community as they 
believe it marginalizes them in the market, the workplace and 
especially in tertiary institutions.  (Note: Affirmative action 
often includes racial quotas which leaves Indians and coloureds 
out of the picture, as it is with whites.  Even when there are 
no qualified black candidates available, positions in public 
universities, hospitals and para-statal institutions remain 
vacant, ignoring qualified white, Indian and coloured 
candidates.  End Note). The ANC will continue to enjoy support 
from the Indian community because of strong historical ties, 
said Nanakchand, but the younger generation of Indians, born 
after the end of apartheid, might not share the same historical 
perspective, connections or values with the ANC.  While 
Nanakchand and Syed did not expect many Indians to abstain from 
voting, Fatima Meer, South African freedom struggle icon with 
whom Durban CG, Pol Counselor and P/E Officer met on April 8, 
thinks otherwise.  'The ANC is full of corruption.  I am very 
disappointed in the ANC.  There is nothing to vote for in this 
election,' said Meer, repeating sentiments she expressed 
publicly in 2008 (Ref C).  Meer reported that she knew of many 
Indians who have decided not to vote.  This sentiment was also 
expressed by Muhammad Dala, Deputy Principal of the Orient 
Islamic School in Durban with whom P/E Officer spoke on March 3. 
 
 
Civil Society: Concerns and Expectations 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Many in civil society are euphoric about the surge in 
political interest and participation among the youth, said 
Imraan Bacuus of the Center for Public Participation (CPP) with 
whom CG, Pol Counselor, P/E Officer and P/E Assistant met on 
April 8.  Millions of new young -- often first time -- voters 
from age 18 to 35 have registered, and political parties are 
aggressively vying for their votes.  Civil society is also 
 
DURBAN 00000039  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
pleased to see the revival of a public political debate, but 
concerns are growing that government institutions such as the 
NPA are increasingly biased toward the ANC, said Zamise Sbo of 
CPP.  Civil society is surprised that 15 years after the end of 
apartheid, the basic integrity of democratic institutions must 
still be safeguarded, he noted.  The ANC has worked to 
consolidate the center of power, and South African citizens are 
either blind to this or very trusting of the ANC, said Sbo.  As 
a result, there are very few spaces for citizen engagement, Sbo 
continued.  Civil society sees the need for stronger civics and 
citizenship education and not just a crash course right before 
the election.  'Perhaps in 10 years people will become involved 
in transforming South Africa and take part in changing the 
values of our systems,' but most are still focused on current 
injustices, said Sbo.  When asked what civil society expects 
from a Zuma administration, Bacuus replied that working class 
people see an era of hope in Zuma.  There is hope that there 
will be a 'movement to the left' away from market capitalism so 
that government can get more involved.  Zuma's group seems to be 
more open to ideas such as social welfare grants and a national 
health plan, opined Bacuus.  However, when pressed by Pol 
Counselor, Bacuus acknowledged that a Zuma administration would 
likely retain the prevailing macroeconomic policy and structure, 
with some marginal changes that are more left-leaning. Sbo 
predicted increased influence from the South African Communist 
Party (SACP) under a Zuma administration. 
 
Political Parties Fight for Political Power 
 
¶6.  (SBU) On April 9, Pol Counselor, P/E Officer and P/E 
Assistant met separately with representatives from the Inkatha 
Freedom Party (IFP), the Congress of the People (COPE), and the 
Democratic Alliance (DA).  The CG joined the final meeting.  In 
general, IFP, COPE, and DA see the NPA's decision to drop 
charges against Zuma as a blow to democracy and the rule of law 
in South Africa.  'This is another example of corruption and 
bullying by the ANC.  All opposition is just stifled,' said 
Christian Msimang, Deputy Secretary General of the IFP.  'This 
is Mugabe-style electioneering,' declared Narend Singh, IFP KZN 
Provincial Treasurer.  Chris Msibi, Head of COPE KZN Elections, 
said that while many urban dwellers care about the Zuma case, 
rural citizens are not familiar with the case and do not see it 
as a deciding factor in how they will vote.  The ANC 'has been 
patriarchal' regarding civic awareness and has 'let the people 
remain ignorant,' said Msibi. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) In terms of campaigning, the IFP is making a national 
push against the ANC, but limited funding has restricted efforts 
outside KZN.  Also, Msimang admitted that Prince Mangosuthu 
Buthelezi, President of the IFP, is more popular than the party, 
which is often seen as a waning tribally-based Zulu-only party. 
Singh was confident that the ANC would get less than 60 percent 
of the national vote.  (Note:  In 2004, the ANC won 69 percent 
of the vote; and with 'floor-crossing' increased their 
parliamentary super majority to 70 percent.  End Note).  Pat 
Lebenya-Ntanzi, IFP Youth League President, told P/E Officer and 
P/E Assistant on March 3 that her party expects to win 60 
percent of the KZN vote.  Also, the IFP has established a team 
of 4000 volunteers who will conduct door-to-door visits in the 
run up to the election.  Msibi predicts that COPE will take 15 
to 20 percent of the KZN vote, although he admits that the 
challenge of building a new political party is, 'tearing us 
apart' (Ref A).  Msibi added that COPE hopes to reduce the ANC's 
national majority to less than 51 percent. 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  If the election were held now, the DA would take 17 
percent of the national vote, according to DA polling data 
shared by DA Parliamentarian Gareth Morgan. He claims that seven 
percent of black South Africans currently support the DA at the 
national level and three percent in KZN.  In the final two weeks 
of its campaign, the DA will run a 'Stop Zuma' poster campaign 
to try to lure undecided voters.  The key to victory, however, 
is voter turnout, added Morgan (Ref B).  No one can predict how 
many people will actually show up at the polls, a factor which 
significantly increases the polling data margin of error. 
Pollsters have never been able to accurately predict IFP turnout 
and as many as a third of Indians are still undecided, Morgan 
pointed out. It is not surprising then that Morgan reported to 
P/E Officer and P/E Assistant on March 3 that the DA plans to 
send out 1.5 million text messages on election day as part of it 
get-out-the-vote campaign. 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  The sentiments expressed by the DA that the 
unpredictability of undecided voters and voter turnout will 
greatly impact the results of the South African election are 
underscored by the recently released Ipsos polling data which 
show that 850,000 to 900,000 voters (or 4.2 percent) have not 
yet decided how they will vote.  If Indian voters abstain in 
 
DURBAN 00000039  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
large numbers, for example, smaller parties such as COPE, DA and 
Minority Front may see their political presence diminish in KZN. 
 If Indians turn out in large numbers, however, they may help 
decide who between COPE and the DA will become the official 
opposition party in the national legislature.  Also, if IFP 
supporters vote in large numbers, the IFP may yet hold on to 
political power in KZN. 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  Comment: It was unsurprising that none of the 
political party representative we talked to saw an opinion poll 
that they were prepared to trust or believe.  As such, public 
pronouncements of likely vote performance are speculative at 
best.  Predictions by partisans, therefore show no limits and 
argue that their party's vote performance will be greater than 
anyone expected; and their opponents would do worse than ever. 
The local absence of dependable survey research results and 
opinion polling systems leaves likely vote results and 
distributions in doubt.  In a conversation with a senior 
investigative political reporter for one of Durban's major 
dailies, Pol Counselor was told that the majority of South 
Africans were happy that Zuma's corruption charges were dropped 
and they don't care about all this stuff about political 
corruption.  They will support the ANC no matter what the press 
or opposition parties say.  He further suggested that ANC 
supporters 'did not see anything wrong with Zuma taking money 
from an Indian.'  In light of this emotional quality of the 
political debate and the degree to which it reflects the wider 
community's sentiments, it will be curious to see, after the 
fact, just how this election will wind up and how South Africans 
will react to it.  End Comment. 
DERDERIAN