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Viewing cable 09DHAHRAN89, SAUDI ARAMCO STILL AIMING FOR 12 MILLION BARREL PRODUCTION

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
09DHAHRAN89 2009-04-20 06:27 2011-08-30 01:44 SECRET//NOFORN Consulate Dhahran
Appears in these articles:
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/05/25/114759/wikileaks-saudis-often-warned.html
VZCZCXRO3774
PP RUEHDE RUEHDIR
DE RUEHDH #0089/01 1100627
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 200627Z APR 09
FM AMCONSUL DHAHRAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0112
INFO RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHZM/GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RUEHHH/OPEC COLLECTIVE
RUEHDH/AMCONSUL DHAHRAN 0140
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAHRAN 000089 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
PLEASE PASS TO NEA/ARP HARRIS AND EEB/ESC SULLIVAN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  4/20/2019 
TAGS: SA EPET ENRG PGOV PINR
SUBJECT: SAUDI ARAMCO STILL AIMING FOR 12 MILLION BARREL PRODUCTION 
CAPACITY BY JUNE 2009 
 
REF: DHAHRAN 74 
 
DHAHRAN 00000089  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Joseph A. Kenny, Consul General, EXEC, DOS. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
1. (S/NF) KEY POINTS: 
 
-- Saudi Aramco's Senior Vice President for Exploration and 
Production, Amin Nasser (protect), says that Saudi Aramco will 
achieve 12 million barrels per day (bpd) of production capacity 
by June 2009. 
 
-- However, a long-serving Aramco employee does not believe that 
they can maintain production at that level for more than two 
months or so.  He asserted that Saudi oilfields are "sick" and 
in worse shape than commonly assumed. 
 
-- Aramco's new CEO, Khalid al-Falih, has begun to take a closer 
look at the health of the oil fields and ordered regular reviews 
of the reservoirs. 
 
-- Nasser says that Aramco will never be able to keep up with 
demand for cheap gas feedstock at current discounted prices of 
US $0.75 per million British thermal units (Btu). 
 
-- Aramco's Executive Management have been troubled by the new 
U.S. administration's "addiction to foreign oil" rhetoric. 
 
End key points. 
 
SAUDI ARAMCO:  WE WILL REACH 12 MILLION BPD CAPACITY 
 
2. (S/NF) In a March 31 meeting, Saudi Aramco Senior Vice 
President for Exploration and Production Amin Nasser (protect) 
told Consul General Kenny (CG) that as of June Saudi Aramco will 
reach 12 million bpd of crude oil production capacity.  However, 
a long-serving Western expatriate Aramco employee claims that a 
daily production rate at or near 12 million bpd is just "smoke 
and mirrors."  He asserted that the Saudi oil fields are "sick" 
and said that Saudi's Ghawar oil field (the world's largest) "is 
in bad shape."  He said that current Saudi Aramco President and 
CEO Khalid al-Falih (an engineer by training) has become aware 
of these problems and has begun to take a closer look at the 
health of the oil fields.  In fact, shortly after he became 
aware of some of the oil field deficiencies, he ordered regular 
oil field reviews (similar to an audit) for every field.  He 
contrasted this with the more hands-off management style of 
al-Falih's predecessor, Abdullah Jum'ah. 
 
3. (S/NF) Nasser explained that Aramco will only bring online an 
oil reserve if it can maintain at least a "30-year plateau" at a 
given rate of daily oil production.  For example, if an oil 
field's recoverable assets would be exhausted after 25 years at 
an average production rate of 1.5 million bpd, then Aramco 
lowers the rate enough to stretch the life of the field to at 
least 30 years.  Nasser said that in order to maximize 
recoverable oil reserves, Aramco "produces oil on the flanks of 
the fields, and then move towards the crest."  However, our 
Western expatriate source said that over the last two years 
Aramco has been pumping straight from the crest to meet what was 
at the time rising demand for oil.  He also said that the 
prevalence of horizontal wells, as opposed to vertical wells, 
increases the reservoir's exposure to water damage. 
 
ARAMCO WANTS SAG TO RAISE PRICE ON GAS FEEDSTOCK 
 
4. (S/NF) In an April 4 meeting, former Aramco President and 
CEO, Abdullah Jum'ah, told CG and EconOff that demand for cheap 
gas feedstock is unlimited in the petrochemical and power 
generation industries (ref A).  Echoing Jum'ah's comment, Nasser 
said that at the current discount rate of US $0.75 per million 
Btu, Saudi Aramco could never find enough gas to meet all of the 
demand.  Nasser said, "As soon as we find non-associated gas, we 
build the platforms [to produce it]," since they know that there 
is already demand for the gas.  Jum'ah noted that in 1984 Saudi 
Aramco asked the SAG to raise the price from US $0.50 per 
million Btu to US $1.00. The SAG split the difference raising it 
to US $0.75; the price at which it remains today.  Jum'ah 
commented that Aramco has been asking the SAG to increase the 
price for a long time, but Saudi decision-makers "above the 
Ministry of Petroleum" consistently deny their requests. 
 
ARAMCO UPSET BY THE U.S. ADMINISTRATION'S ANTI-FOREIGN OIL 
RHETORIC 
 
5. (S/NF) On Apr 6, Jack Moore (protect), Director of Aramco's 
Washington office, told the CG and EconOff that Aramco's 
Executive Management have grown increasingly concerned about the 
new U.S. administration's pledges to end America's dependence on 
foreign oil imports.  He said that al-Falih once angrily 
asserted to him, "We [Aramco] can take care of their addiction!" 
(Note:  This statement was meant as a threat to cut off Saudi 
oil supplies to the U.S.  End Note.)  However, Moore said that 
he has tried to reassure the Executive Management that this was 
merely domestic political rhetoric and that the U.S. will 
continue to be a strong market for Saudi oil for a long time to 
come.  In a paper that he was tasked to write for senior Aramco 
management on the topic, he said he noted that despite a likely 
decrease in U.S. aggregate demand for oil, Saudi imports will 
likely maintain current levels, as they have to pick up the 
slack on ever-decreasing oil production capacity in Mexico, the 
North Sea, and Venezuela.  (Note:  According to DOE figures, 
during January 2009 the U.S. imported 1.36 million bpd from 
Saudi Arabia, the third largest source of U.S. oil imports after 
Canada (2.54 million bpd) and Mexico (1.43 million bpd) and 
followed closely by Venezuela (1.35 million bpd).  End Note.) 
 
6. (S/NF) Moore said that al-Falih and other senior Executive 
Management appear to take the U.S. administration's anti-foreign 
oil comments "personally."  He said that regardless of this, 
Aramco understands that they cannot simply abandon supplying the 
U.S. market.  He said that Aramco knows that Asian markets are 
where the growth is, but they "don't trust China as an 
alternative market to the U.S."  He added that in any case the 
decision to restrict oil supplies to the U.S. is "not 
al-Falih's, not Naimi's [Minister of Petroleum and Minerals], 
but the King's."  (Comment:  The previous U.S. administration 
put significant pressure on the SAG to increase oil production 
capacity, which they have acted on with questionable results as 
noted in para 2.  The SAG and Aramco executives are therefore 
predictably upset to hear the new administration talk about 
reducing oil imports from the Middle East.  End Comment.) 
KENNY