VZCZCXRO7731
RR RUEHAO
DE RUEHAO #0032/01 1132207
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 232207Z APR 09
FM AMCONSUL CURACAO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2264
INFO RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 0277
RHMFIUU/DAVIS MONTHAN AFB AZ
RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL
RHMFIUU/JIATF SOUTH
RUEABND/DEA SAN JUAN PR
RUEABND/DEA HQS WASHDC
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0416
RUEHAO/AMCONSUL CURACAO 3269

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CURACAO 000032 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR  FOR L, CA, M AND WHA\CAR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: NA AA NL PGOV ECON EFIN MARR SNAR
SUBJECT: UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS CURACAO'S MAY 15 REFERENDUM OUTCOME 
 
REF: CURACAO 000012 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Polls for Curacao's May 15 referendum on 
agreements relating to dissolution of the Netherlands Antilles 
(reftel) are limited, but seem to give the "YES" vote a solid 
lead. The current governing coalition strongly supports the 
agreements' provisions for Dutch assistance on Antillean debt in 
exchange for enhanced financial oversight. The Opposition is 
encouraging people to vote "NO", calling the agreement a form of 
re-colonization. Many believe the Opposition receives funding 
for its campaign from the Venezuelan government, which is 
critical of the USAF counter-drug presence on Curacao and Aruba. 
The Dutch have warned recently that a "NO" win would mean the 
end of ongoing debt restructuring, while the effect on other 
aspects of the Antilles' dismantling process remain unclear.  As 
Parliamentary elections are due by March 2010, the referendum is 
shaping up  as a political test of strength and threatens to 
polarize Curacao voters. END SUMMARY 
 
¶2. (U) BACKGROUND: The Netherlands Antilles (NA) is in the 
process of dissolution, although all five islands will remain 
part of the Kingdom of the Netherlands (KON).  Curacao and St. 
Maarten will have semi-autonomous status similar to Aruba, while 
Bonaire, St. Eustatius, and Saba (the BES islands) will become 
special municipalities of the Netherlands. The other members of 
the NA say they intend to continue with dissolution regardless 
of the referendum's outcome. 
 
¶3. (SBU) POLLING:  According to Post contacts, unpublished 
surveys by ruling coalition party operatives claim a trend in 
favor of a solid "YES" win, with their latest April poll of 1000 
voters supposedly giving "YES" 60 percent to 22 percent for 
"NO". A poll on the "NO" website (www.vota-no.com) of nearly 
3000 voters shows "NO" leading 53 percent to 38 percent. A 
similar poll of 1200 voters on the "YES" website 
(www.korsou-si.com  ) showed 77 
percent supporting "YES" versus 21 percent "NO".  A poll 
conducted by the University of the Caribbean in early April, 
which tried to create a fair sample, found approximately 50 
percent intending to vote "YES" with 30 percent supporting "NO". 
 One indication that the race might be closer than anticipated 
is that, during the 2006 parliamentary election, 34,000 voters 
out of the total of 70,000 voted for parties that currently 
support the "NO" campaign. 
 
¶4. (SBU) VENEZUELA FUNDING "NO"?: Various business groups and 
organizations funded by wealthy businessmen, including in the 
Netherlands, are actively promoting the "YES" vote. Post's 
business, media, and political contacts indicate that "YES" 
currently outspends "NO" by approximately three to one. 
Management of Curacao's leading bank is openly supporting the 
"YES" campaign.  The influential bank executives and others in 
the financial sector have called voting "NO" "suicidal for the 
investment climate" as it would put at risk approximately 2 
billion USD in debt relief (nearly 70 percent of total Antillean 
government debt).  The "NO" supporters have had less success in 
finding local funding. GONA officials, however, are concerned 
that the Venezuelan Government is funneling cash to opposition 
parties and the "NO" campaign, as Caracas seeks to diminish 
Dutch influence and opposes the USAF counter-drug Forward 
Operating Locations (FOLs) on Curacao and Aruba.  Former vice-PM 
Errol Cova has categorically denied any Venezuelan funding for 
the "NO" campaign, but added "tell me where there is money in 
Venezuela and I will go knock on the door." 
 
¶5. (U) RULING COALITION CONFIDENT: The governing coalition has 
beefed up its "YES" campaign this month and, if its polls are 
accurate, it is having the desired effect. The coalition has 
focused on the benefits of debt relief and asserted that 
renegotiating with the Netherlands for a better deal would not 
be possible, especially during the current worldwide economic 
crisis and given the political climate in the Netherlands.  One 
source of criticism regarding the agreement has stemmed from 
Curacao's ongoing rivalry with Aruba.  Aruba stepped out of the 
Netherlands Antilles in 1986, largely because of Curacao's 
dominating role. Now many Curacao voters think they might 
achieve less autonomy within the Kingdom than Aruba.  The 
governing coalition observation that Aruba did not receive debt 
relief has dampened, but not eliminated, this view. 
 
¶6. (U) OPPOSITION PARTIES ACTIVE: Fewer than 1000 protestors 
joined in a peaceful rally in support of the "NO" vote April 19. 
The rally was organized by opposition parties NPA and the 
Sovereign People's Party together with the PLKP party of former 
vice-PM Errol Cova. For symbolic reasons the rally started at 
the "National Slavery Monument", injecting an element of racial 
 
CURACAO 00000032  002 OF 002 
 
 
identity to the event.  The march ended at another symbolic 
site, the downtown square named after Curacao-born Admiral 
Brisn, who fought alongside Bolivar for Venezuelan independence. 
 The "NO" campaign has focused on the provisions for continued 
financial and judicial oversight by the Dutch, calling them a 
form of re-colonization.  "NO" supporters are primarily from 
poorer segments of society but also include several prominent 
figures, including a former Island Governor who is a member of 
the governing coalition National Party. The "NO" vote has not 
provided an alternative for how it will proceed if victorious, 
but is expected to do so shortly before the vote in hopes of a 
last-minute surge. 
 
¶7. (U) DUTCH DOUBTFUL: The "YES" camp received a boost recently 
when the GON agreed to begin phased debt relief as of April 01 
and not wait for the referendum results.  The Dutch State 
Secretary for Kingdom relations provided a dose of reality 
during a visit here this week when she warned that the debt 
restructuring will be discontinued if "NO" wins. She also 
continued to cast doubt on St. Maarten's readiness to assume a 
new status by January 2010. 
 
¶8. (SBU) COMMENT:  Although there is a lack of reliable polling 
information, the governing coalition has expressed increasing 
confidence in recent weeks that the "YES" vote will win.  Some 
Opposition party members acknowledge that "YES" support is 
growing, but see the referendum as an opportunity to energize 
their voting base for possible 2010 parliamentary elections.  A 
"NO" victory would throw the Antillean political landscape into 
even greater confusion. The GON, BES islands, and St. Maarten 
have all stated that dissolution will continue regardless of 
Curacao's referendum outcome. This could leave Curacao more 
isolated and in a weaker position to negotiate any changes to 
the current agreements with the Dutch. END COMMENT. 
DUNN