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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000228 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2019 
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: KMT VICE CHAIRMAN WU DEN-YIH DISCUSSES ELECTION 
PLANNING, PARTY POLITICS, AND PRESIDENT MA 
 
Classified By: AIT Acting Director Robert S. Wang, 
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: Ruling KMT Vice Chairman Wu Den-yih told the 
Acting Director on February 25 his party cannot take lightly 
two upcoming legislative by-elections in Blue-majority Miaoli 
County (March 14) and Taipei City (March 28), given public 
dissatisfaction with the government over the economic 
downturn.  The December 5 elections for county magistrates 
and city mayors will be a bigger challenge, especially the 
contest in Taipei County, Wu indicated.  Current KMT 
Magistrate Chou Hsi-wei has much lower polling numbers than 
the potential DPP candidate, former Premier Su Tseng-chang. 
Nonetheless, the KMT is likely to field a stronger candidate 
than Chou, and Su's chances of victory are only 50-50, Wu 
said.  On the intra-party election for KMT chairman this 
summer, he suggested that President Ma Ying-jeou has not yet 
made a decision on whether he wants to take up the position 
himself or have current Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung continue for 
another term.  End Summary. 
 
Legislative By-Elections 
------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (C) KMT Vice Chairman and Secretary General Wu Den-yih, 
the party's senior election strategist, told the Acting 
Director on February 25 that the party is facing an 
unfavorable atmosphere resulting from the economic downturn, 
rising unemployment, and public dissatisfaction with the 
government.  As a result, the KMT cannot take for granted the 
March 28 Legislative Yuan (LY) by-election in Taipei's Da'an 
District, even though the party normally wins by a very wide 
margin in this district.  (Note: Another complication is that 
independent Yao Li-ming, supported by the Deep Blue New Party 
(NP), has joined the contest, which could split the "Blue 
vote" and give the DPP a chance.  However, the KMT can be 
expected to urge Blue supporters to "dump" Yao and "save" the 
KMT candidate, a strategy that has worked for them 
previously, for example, in the 2006 Taipei mayoral election. 
 Yao, a former NP legislator, was one of the leaders of the 
2006 "Red Shirt" movement that called for the resignation of 
then-President Chen Shui-bian.  End Note.) 
 
¶3.  (C) In the other upcoming LY by-election, in Miaoli on 
March 14, the political scene is complicated, Wu observed. 
KMT candidate Chen Luan-ying, wife of the former legislator, 
whose election was nullified because of vote buying, is not 
well known and is not a strong campaigner.  However, many 
people will support her because they believe her husband was 
wronged.  She is opposed by Kang Shih-ju, a maverick KMT 
local mayor running as an independent, who is being supported 
by the DPP.  Recently, Chen has increased her lead over Kang, 
but still does not enjoy a safe margin. 
 
December 5 Local Elections: Taipei County 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) Turning to the December 5 local elections, Wu 
acknowledged that Taipei County will be the most important 
race and that former Premier Su Tseng-chang, the potential 
DPP candidate, has a substantial advantage in current public 
opinion polls.  If Su runs and wins, he will become the sole 
DPP "king," ending the period of competing kings and queens, 
which included also former presidential candidate Frank 
Hsieh, former Vice President Annette Lu, and former DPP 
Chairman Yu Shyi-kun.  However, Su will not be able to repeat 
the strong record he had when he was magistrate from 1997 - 
¶2004.  At the time, Su was able to spend lavishly on popular 
local projects throughout the county, leaving current KMT 
Magistrate Chou Hsi-wei a large public debt headache.  In 
addition, Su will not have the budget resources or support 
from the KMT central government that he enjoyed after the DPP 
came into power in 2000. 
 
¶5.  (C) Despite his strong polling numbers, Su would at best 
have a 50-50 chance of winning the Taipei County election, Wu 
predicted.  Pan-Blue supporters outnumber pan-Green 
supporters in the county, and most local elected officials, 
including mayors and legislators, are KMT, Wu explained. 
 
TAIPEI 00000228  002 OF 003 
 
 
When Su ran for reelection in 2001, at the height of his 
popularity, he managed to beat KMT-supported New Party 
candidate Wang Chien-shien, who ran a weak campaign, by only 
a 51-48 point margin.  With the KMT now governing Taipei 
County, Su will have difficulty convincing the county's local 
politicians to support him.  Moreover, Wu suggested, other 
DPP heavyweights might work against Su, because a victory by 
him could block their own hopes to run in the 2012 
presidential election.  He cited the example of Su-protege Wu 
Ping-jui, a DPP legislative candidate in Taipei County in 
¶2008.  According to Wu Den-yih, Wu Ping-jui lost the election 
owing to the machinations of a rival DPP local politician. 
 
¶6.  (C) Acknowledging KMT Magistrate Chou Hsi-wei's current 
low standing in public opinion polls, Wu noted that Chou is 
working to strengthen his record prior to the election, which 
is still 9 months away.  These efforts will help the KMT 
candidate, whether it is Chou or someone else.  Both parties 
now are waiting for the other side to name their candidate. 
According to Wu, there are virtually no limits on selecting 
the strongest possible KMT candidate for the Taipei County 
race, and there are two or three possible candidates, which 
he declined to name.  In a separate meeting, KMT Legislator 
Lai Shyh-bao told poloff there were only three potential KMT 
candidates who would have a chance of beating Su: Taichung 
City Mayor Jason Hu, Taoyuan County Magistrate Eric Chu, and 
Wu Den-yih himself. 
 
Other Contests 
-------------- 
 
¶7.  (C) In addition to Taipei County, the KMT is facing 
difficult elections in two or three other counties, Wu 
suggested.  Although he declined to provide details, others 
have suggested the KMT may well lose Yilan County, could face 
problems in Taitung and Nantou Counties, and also faces some 
uncertainties in Changhua and Taichung Counties.  Wu said the 
decision on whether to merge Taichung City and County, which 
would delay elections there for a year, will be up to the LY, 
which would have to act by April 4 at the latest.  However, 
some legislators oppose the merger at this time, and Wu could 
not predict whether the LY will approve the merger this 
spring. 
 
KMT and KMT-DPP Relations 
------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) The public often blames the KMT for decisions made by 
government officials over which the party has no influence, 
Wu observed.  Many people do not understand that, unlike 
authoritarian times, there is now a clear distinction between 
party and government.  According to Wu, the current role of 
the party is to manage election campaigns, work with the 
party's LY caucus, and coordinate relations between party and 
government.  Wu suggested that the competitive relationship 
between the KMT and DPP would make formal inter-party 
dialogue difficult.  However, it is important to maintain the 
tacit consensus that both parties are working for the good of 
Taiwan and engaging in healthy competition. 
 
Ma as President of All the People, Not Just the KMT 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶9.  (C) Ma Ying-jeou is the first KMT top leader not to serve 
concurrently as party chairman, Wu noted.  Ma came into 
office wanting to be president of all the people, and not 
just the leader of one party.  However, Ma's approach means 
that party officials see him as cool and aloof, while 
supporters tend to see him as weak.  Despite Ma's efforts to 
reach out to the light Green, the pan-Green camp has opposed 
him.  Moreover, the KMT is weaker without his leadership, and 
some KMT legislators have felt free to criticize the 
president.  That said, Ma has strengthened his efforts to 
coordinate with the party and LY, including setting up a 
five-member committee (president, vice president, premier, 
party chairman, and LY speaker), which meets weekly.  Rating 
Ma's coordination with KMT legislators and the party, Wu gave 
him a grade of 50-60 (out of 100) in the early months of his 
presidency and 70-80 now. 
 
TAIPEI 00000228  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
KMT Chairman Election 
--------------------- 
 
¶10.  (C) Wu said candidate registration for the KMT chairman 
election will take place in early June.  This means President 
Ma Ying-jeou and Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung will have to decide 
what they want to do by late May.  Wu Poh-hsiung will support 
Ma if Ma wants to take up the chairman position.  Wu 
Poh-hsiung will also be agreeable if Ma wants him to continue 
as chairman.  A third option would be for Ma and Wu 
Poh-hsiung to ask a third person to run for party chair, 
However, the situation has not reached that point, Wu Den-yih 
said, adding that he would respect whatever decision Ma and 
Wu Poh-hsiung make.  (Comment: Many observers here expect Ma, 
who has not made a decision yet, to ask Wu to continue as 
chairman.) 
 
WANG